These numbers might be off a little, just because after the 10% of tags are allotted to non-resident hunters the rest of the non-resident applicants are not considered, but taking the numbers for what they are it should be fairly close. I am not pointing the finger here at any specific person. NiceRack you mentioned numbers in your post so I'll use that as an example but this by no means is directed at you or anything like that. Not trying to be negative at all. In the example you mentioned, applying for antelope, unit 37-1 for 10 years?
Antelope example: Unit 37-1
Year odds/percent tags/applicants
2018 - 0.037 (3.7%) 60/1605
2017 ?0.038 (3.8%) 60/1565
This 3.7% chance is the equivalent to drawing a tag on average every 27 years. 27!! If you apply for this tag you are applying for a tag that has an average of drawing it once every 27 years. This is YOUR choice to put in for that tag knowing the odds and it is just as fair for you to be able to put in for it as it is the other 1604 applicants that applied for the tag and you have the same chance of drawing it as they do. If somebody puts in for that tag for 10 years (a tag that an individual should draw every 27 years) there shouldn't be much of a surprise that you haven't beaten the odds and drawn it yet. At 10 years you haven't even put in for it for ? the amount of years it should take you to draw it (per the odds). The argument for making controlled hunts in Idaho a point system is a selfish argument. Again, I'm not saying you are selfish NiceRack or anybody else specifically, I don't know you and am certainly not the type to call somebody out from behind a computer screen, that's not what I'm doing. Just simply using that 37-1 tag as an example and using the term ?selfish? in a general sense, not directing it at anybody specific. If they started a point system 10 years ago, the year NiceRack initially put in for that tag so you got in on the ground floor and had MAX points from the beginning, it would still take on average for YOU (and all other 1604 applicants that got in on the ground floor with points) 27 years of applying to draw that tag. Yes, some would draw it earlier and some would draw it on that 27th year? Your odds would be no different for the first 27 years. That is if the number of applicants didn't go up when the points game started. Just because you start a points game doesn't mean you have better odds those first (in this 37-1 tag case) 27 years.
Now, take that point system into consideration and add several more applicants to the pool because once the point game starts a lot more people will put in, decreasing the odds of drawing even more. It doesn't increase your odds, it WILL decrease them. Everybody will put their kids and other relatives that normally wouldn't even put in for controlled hunts, in for points, because the points are valuable and it gives everybody a false sense of ?someday I'll get the best tags!?.
Say it adds 20% more applicants to the pool (I have no idea what it would be but it would be fairly significant is my guess). Actually it would probably be more applicants than that as a ton of non-resident applicants would enter the pool but they are still capped at 10% of the tags so it wouldn't change your odds due to more NON-RES applicants (non-resident odds would be astronomical). So, 20% more resident applications added to the already 1605 applicants for unit 37-1 would equate to 321 more applicants. Now you have 1926 applicants for those same 60 tags. Now you have a 0.031 (3.1%) chance of drawing that tag. Now you are looking at an average of 32 years to draw that tag. On a selfish level you would be guaranteed a tag at some point within that 32 years, right? Actually not really, because depending on what type of point system it was you still wouldn't be guaranteed if it were a system like Nevada?s. Utah and Colorado?s true preference point system would get you that tag within the 32 years.
So say you didn't add any additional applicants if it went to points, and it was an average of 27 years to draw that tag. That is ONLY for the people that got in on the ground floor and got a point every year until they drew. Now you draw the tag and you will NEVER see that tag again. It is a once-in-a-lifetime tag at that point but only a once-in-a-lifetime tag for those that got in on the ground floor. Also, just imagine how long it would take for the individuals that were not able to get in on the points game in Idaho the first year it started? How many years would it take for them to draw the tag after waiting for all the applicants that got in on the ground floor, etc. There is a chance that tag is a tag that most people would NEVER have the opportunity to draw, all because of the points game.
The way it currently is, you have a chance to draw that tag, the same chance as EVERYBODY ELSE that applied (nobody can argue that isn't the most fair system) but you shouldn't expect it but once every 27 years. Those are the odds. Yes, some might draw it 2-3 times in 27 years of applying if they are diligent about applying for it and others may not ever draw it, but you have a chance, a chance that you take away from others if you add a point system into Idaho. Again, the points game is a selfish fix in my eyes and not the best route to take for the future of hunting in Idaho. A point game literally takes a fair chance for everybody and makes it a tag that a lot of individuals will never have a chance to obtain, except for the few that are in the game the first year.
There are several things we could do to increase the odds besides take those chances away from future generations; like longer waiting periods, having to choose between deer, elk and antelope just like you have to choose between moose, sheep and mtn. goat (not my favorite choice), maybe you can only apply for 2 of the 3? Maybe if you choose to apply for controlled hunts you can only hunt general hunts every other year (regardless of if you draw a tag or not in the controlled hunt drawing)? There are several ways to limit opportunity but unfortunately there are simply too many people trying to have the most opportunity in Idaho these days and if you don't limit the opportunity to some extent you are going to continue with decreased odds in the controlled drawings and too much competition for all opportunities.
And if you want to hunt top units for animals and want to play a point game, there are plenty of them out there, but I can only pray they never start one in Idaho. I have points in most states and I bet if those systems were all random I would have drawn more tags than I have...
And for the record, I have been putting in for an antelope tag every year since 2002 (with the exception of 2 years that I put in for moose) and the only antelope tag i have had is one I picked up "first come first served" in the second drawing one year. I put in for hard to draw antelope tags (all of them are hard to draw) and it has been since 2002 and I have never "drawn" a tag. mathematically, per the odds, I shouldn't have yet.