Max Point Holders Status

Bwht4x4 · Jan 10, 2017

LAST EDITED ON Jan-10-17 AT 01:05PM (MST)[p]I'm trying to get some insight into where I stand with drawing a LE Henries deer tag in the future. I'm 45 years old and have 20 pts (nonresident) as of today (after 2016 drawing).

Last year the Henries rifle tag had the following pool of top point applicants:

22 pts - 7 applicants
21 pts - 16 applicants
20 pts - 18 applicants
19 pts - 21 applicants
-----------------------
62 applicants with 19+ pts

I have no doubt that the number of applicants with 19+ points will either draw a Henries tag, opt for another LE unit, draw a Henries management tag just to get out of the system, stop applying due to health issues or just die, which will push me closer to drawing a tag.

For those of you that know some of these max point holders, how old are they? Are they in their 40s like me or are most of them 60+ years old? If I just stick to applying will I likely draw simply because I'm much younger than the average high point holder?

Thoughts?

BIGJOHNT · Jan 10, 2017

Well I have been going over this for the Bison hunt. So maybe this will help you, me and others understand the draw and points system. I had 21 points last year for Henry's Bison and drew. So I thought that that would give my 22 points in the draw. No, I had 21 points going into the draw. After the draw if I didn't draw I would have had 22 points. I also have 1 point for mountain goat. I don't believe I have missed a year. So max points must be 22 as of the last draw. If you put in last year and didn't draw that would be 23 for this year. Here is the draw info for last.

Ok so far ?
My dad and I have the same points he is 80 years old and I am 53 years old. I would have love to give him my tag for last year and go back into the pool and wait .We even have the same name. But the state wouldn't allow this. So we are trying to get him drawn on this tag while he can still walk and hunt. On the late hunt he is guaranteed according to last years numbers .

Thats if the numbers stay the same. Know for us on Bison I think they shouldn't change much. But when they change or add to the proclamation it does change odds. I don't think the new Henry's Bison archery hunt is going to change that much for us. But for deer changes and trends are different and may affect your odds from year to year. So for us or my dad. Do we go for the late hunt or try our luck on the early hunt that I drew ?

BIGJOHNT · Jan 10, 2017

Here are my points from last year.

Bwht4x4 · Jan 10, 2017

Thanks for the reply John. I think I understand what you're saying.

Because I'd rather have an archery or muzzy tag on the Henries...that's what I've been applying for the last decade or more. Since I'm in the random pool for the couple of rifle tags I figured that I might as well be in the random draw for the archery or muzzy tag, since that is the tag I'd rather have.

As soon as I see that I can draw a rifle tag I probably will jump over to that and forego the archery or muzzy tag. However, there are still 62 folks ahead of me and I'd love to know where I fall in with them with regards to age. Simple attrition is going be a big factor in how fast I move up to the max point pool.

For example, there is a gentleman in my area that had 20+ pts (nonresident) and opted for a Henries management tag because he felt he was getting too old to wait for a Henries tag. I also helped an older gentleman in 2016 who drew a very good deer tag (not Henries) that was tired of waiting for another tag he really wanted.

In 2014 I drew a LE archery elk hunt with 5 pts, so I know the UT system works. Here's where I sit with my UT points:

BIGJOHNT · Jan 10, 2017

I would guess that you are younger then a lot of those in the pool .Like you said and you can always get lucky like your elk tag. Other units like the Paunsaugunt are producing great bucks as of late and I have heard of a few jumping over to the Paunsaugunt. But the Henry's is pretty special! I hope to get another tag on the unit some day. ?

elkassassin · Jan 10, 2017

That's F'N BS Right There!

Look at the OIL Points this Guy Has Racked Up!

No,I'm Not mad at You Bwht!

If I Could do it, then I Would too!

Keep Trying for the Henry's Tag!

Our DWR Likes Out-a-Staters more than they like us!

[font color="blue"]It Was them Damn Lake Trout that took them Elk
out!

[/font]

BIGJOHNT · Jan 10, 2017

> That's F'N BS Right
>There!
>
>Look at the OIL Points this
>Guy Has Racked Up!
>
>No,I'm Not mad at You Bwht!
>
>
>If I Could do it, then
>I Would too!
>
>Keep Trying for the Henry's Tag!
>
>
>Our DWR Likes Out-a-Staters more than
>they like us!
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>[font color="blue"]It Was them Damn Lake
>Trout that took them Elk
>
>out!

[/font]
>
>

Well that's true for points ! But not for tag numbers.

Bwht4x4 · Jan 10, 2017

> That's F'N BS Right
>There!
>
>Look at the OIL Points this
>Guy Has Racked Up!
>
>No,I'm Not mad at You Bwht!
>
>
>If I Could do it, then
>I Would too!
>
>Keep Trying for the Henry's Tag!
>
>
>Our DWR Likes Out-a-Staters more than
>they like us!
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>[font color="blue"]It Was them Damn Lake
>Trout that took them Elk
>
>out!

[/font]
>
>

Bess,

I'll be lucky to draw a Henries deer tag much less a OIL as a NR. The likelyhood that I ever draw an OIL is probably miniscule!

I'd be foolish though not to collect all the points I can.

elkassassin · Jan 10, 2017

>> That's F'N BS Right
>>There!
>>
>>Look at the OIL Points this
>>Guy Has Racked Up!
>>
>>No,I'm Not mad at You Bwht!
>>
>>
>>If I Could do it, then
>>I Would too!
>>
>>Keep Trying for the Henry's Tag!
>>
>>
>>Our DWR Likes Out-a-Staters more than
>>they like us!
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>[font color="blue"]It Was them Damn Lake
>>Trout that took them Elk
>>
>>out!

[/font]
>>
>>
>
>Bess,
>
>I'll be lucky to draw a
>Henries deer tag much less
>a OIL as a NR.
>The likelyhood that I ever
>draw an OIL is probably
>miniscule!
>
>I'd be foolish though not to
>collect all the points I
>can.

You Know I'm RAZZIN You,Right?

Like I said above!

I'd do it too if I could!

Here's Where I Have a Problem with it!

I Know NON-RES Guys that are RACKIN Points on everything they can!

Down the Road a Few Years they've got plans of Moving to TARDville!

That Gonna be Fair?

[font color="blue"]It Was them Damn Lake Trout that took them Elk
out!

[/font]

Packout · Jan 11, 2017

LAST EDITED ON Jan-11-17 AT 08:07AM (MST)[p]I know two NR who put in for the Henry Mtns with more points than you and both are 45-55. I'd wager that half the guys ahead of you are able to apply for 25 more years.

Here is how I see it--

There are 10 guys with 23 points. 21 with 22 points. 28 guys with 21 points. 69 guys with 20 points. You have 20 points so there are 135 guys with the same or more points than you. Some of those will flip slop and put in for the Pauns and Henry Mtns. But there is only 1 Bonus tag for NR Henry hunts and that won't change any time soon as there is no trigger in the management Plan to increase trophy permits on the Henry Mtns. (That could change when the Plan is revised in 4 years, but I highly doubt a change will be made to increase tags on the unit). Your only real hope is that the powers increase permits on the Henry Mtns by 50%-- which would increase the ML and Archery allocations enough to give a NR Bonus tag for Archery and ML. But I just think that is very unlikely.

There are 50+ years of guys ahead of you for the only Henry Mtns NR Bonus tag.

The Pauns and Henry Mtns only give 6 Bonus NR tags between all the weapon types.

Personally, I can't imagine hoping the system stays the same for 25+ years so I could possibly draw a tag. The Henry Mtns wasn't even a limited entry unit 20 years ago and the point system wasn't even started 25 years ago. Do you want a Henry Mtns tag when you are 70? Or would you rather have a lesser unit, with the chance to chase a giant or two, while you can give it a harder go? I had a "lesser" unit LE tag last year and there are some great bucks to chase on many LE units.

Best of luck with the decision.

Vanilla · Jan 11, 2017

Totally off topic, and I apologize ahead of time for that. But you have 13 general buck deer points? Wow.

Bwht4x4 · Jan 11, 2017

LAST EDITED ON Jan-11-17 AT 10:32AM (MST)[p]>Totally off topic, and I apologize
>ahead of time for that.
>But you have 13 general
>buck deer points? Wow.

Vanilla,

The reason I have 13 pts is pretty simple. Utah's applications are due quite early with respect to a lot of other states (AZ deer/BHS, WY deer/Ant, NV, CA, etc.) and since I apply for a lot of hunts in nearly every western state I always buy a general UT deer point with the thought that I'll hunt it someday in the future. Well, the future has been 13 years now!! I generally draw a decent tag or two every year so I haven't felt the need to burn those points yet. In 2015 I ended up with 5 different tags!!

I hope to use the 13 general deer points with a buddy on a muzzy hunt over the next few years.

Do you know if I can share them with a resident?

dz · Jan 11, 2017

Bwht4x4 I have the same points as you. For years I chased the Pausn tag. Then a few years back I had the ah ha moment Bess is talking about. Being LDS I decided when I retire I will do a mission at Cove Fort get my residency and hunt the Henries then. I am a few years ahead of you in age and plan to retire at 55 so I will be gone out of your pool. At least that is the game plan right now, subject to change.

DZ

grizzly · Jan 11, 2017

The point system gets pretty ugly once you see the numbers and do the math, then figure out how many quality hunting years most of us have left.

I'm not saying there's a better option since that's not the point of this thread, just that the numbers are disheartening.

But I will say that I'm always surprised that San Juan Archery Deer doesn't get more love. IIRC, Randy Pixler averaged over 200" on archery deer a year ago. That's a pretty awesome average.

Grizzly

elkfromabove · Jan 11, 2017

And you all are forgetting the 13 NR who have 20+ points who only purchased another bonus point in 2016. At some point, those folks will actually apply for a tag and it will probably be for the Henries (or Pauns), thus decreasing your chances even further.

Bwht4x4 · Jan 11, 2017

dz,

Moving to UT to gain residency sounds like a good plan and is something that I thought of. The problem is that I have two small kids (2 and 4) so I won't be retiring any time soon. I'll be 60 years old when my youngest enters college!!

grizzly,

I've thought about the archery and muzzy hunts on the San Juan because I know the quality is there and those units too only give one random tag for each hunt. The odds are clearly better, but not enough to get me to jump ship on the Henries at this point.

Bwht4x4 · Jan 11, 2017

>And you all are forgetting the
>13 NR who have 20+
>points who only purchased another
>bonus point in 2016. At
>some point, those folks will
>actually apply for a tag
>and it will probably be
>for the Henries (or Pauns),
>thus decreasing your chances even
>further.

Yes, but most of those guys being residents would be gone after one year since they'd likely draw with that many points.

wildfin · Jan 11, 2017

like elkfromabove said there is alot of people with the points that did not apply, 20 and above. I did apply with 20 but if I am really unlucky at one tag a year I could be looking at 90 years,I am 59. My portfolio of western states for all big game is full of serious points along with my wife and we have more years of limited entry hunts than we will live through,I have been burning hunts as best I can but can only do about 2or 3 per year,so I will continue to apply the henries rifle and I can let it ride for now,there will never be a time that I burn the points on a management tag plus my wife wants to hunt deer in colorado this year. For me the henries would not be my first choice of several other states but it is a goal I set along time ago,probably the one thing that may change would be the freedom to spend the time finding the deer I like to hunt and than get the tag I need in utah. Good luck and dont forget to hunt while you wait.

elkfromabove · Jan 11, 2017

LAST EDITED ON Jan-11-17 AT 08:03PM (MST)[p]>>And you all are forgetting the
>>13 NR who have 20+
>>points who only purchased another
>>bonus point in 2016. At
>>some point, those folks will
>>actually apply for a tag
>>and it will probably be
>>for the Henries (or Pauns),
>>thus decreasing your chances even
>>further.
>
>Yes, but most of those guys
>being residents would be gone
>after one year since they'd
>likely draw with that many
>points.

No, those 13 I mentioned were all non-residents, and they/you are in a separate pool and a separate draw for separate tags from the residents, so it doesn't matter to you whether any residents are gone or not. Your competition isn't with them, it's with the other non-residents.

elkfromabove · Jan 12, 2017

To the OP:

You probably have a long wait, a real long wait for the Henry's. Then again, you might get lucky, real lucky.

Assuming nothing or nobody changes from the draw last year (other than the successes dropping out), and calculating the chances everyone has who applied, but got an unsuccessful last year, your minimum wait to reach the non-resident max point holders group is 23 years, and your chances per your non-resident status in 2017 are approximately (and climbing):

Muzzy: 1 in 252
Archery: 1 in 279
Any Weapon: 1 in 753

The downsides are:
(1) There are at least 8 non-residents waiting ahead of you with points in the wings. At some point some will likely apply for tags on the Henrys. (Add 4-6 years?)
(2) Once you are in the max group there are currently 23 of you, with 5 more waiting in the wings with points, and only 1 of you will be guaranteed the one and only non-resident bonus tag each year from that point on. You may be the first one or the last one, but likely somewhere in the middle (Add 11 more years?).
(3) There may be others with 20+ points who we don't know about who neither applied for tags or bought points for whatever reason. (LDS mission, illness, accident, school, finances, etc.) Surprise, surprise! (Add another year?)
(4) The DWR is currently studying a proposal to combine the deer General Unit preference points with the deer Limited Entry Unit bonus points into a single system and that could limit, change or reduce your 20+ points.

The upsides are:
(1) You could just get lucky and draw one of the regular non-resident tags out of the regular permits in this regular draw.
(2) You could get really lucky and draw a Henrys tag at the Expo OR the statewide Sportsman's tag.
(3) Many of those ahead of you could drop out for whatever reason. (Some you've mentioned.)
(4) You could save enough money in the meanwhile to just buy a Henrys tag at an auction.

There are other possible scenarios I haven't thought of, but basically, you (and everyone else who wants a Henrys tag) have to make a decision about it's importance, and act accordingly.

BryceCanyon · Jan 12, 2017

LAST EDITED ON Jan-13-17 AT 05:53AM (MST)[p].

Gator · Jan 12, 2017

Those guys that are close to drawing(at least a outside chance) should go up and see the area and the type of bucks that can be had on a management hunt, I bet more then couple would be happy as a pig in slop with those type of bucks. I know if I get in close to a chance on that draw means the same as being same as snowball chance in H#ll, I will be happy to draw that management hunt before I get too old.

"I have found if you go the extra mile it's Never crowded".
>[Font][Font color = "green"]Life member of
>the MM green signature club.[font/]

Bwht4x4 · Jan 13, 2017

>Those guys that are close to
>drawing(at least a outside chance)
>should go up and see
>the area and the type
>of bucks that can be
>had on a management hunt,
>I bet more then couple
>would be happy as a
>pig in slop with those
>type of bucks. I know
>if I get in close
>to a chance on that
>draw means the same as
>being same as snowball chance
>in H#ll, I will be
>happy to draw that management
>hunt before I get too
>old.
>
>"I have found if you go
>the extra mile it's Never
>crowded".
>>[Font][Font color = "green"]Life member of
>>the MM green signature club.[font/]

I've thought about the management hunt, but I've got a 165 inch 3x3 on the wall and I'd like to do a bit better than that. I'll never be in this position again and since I'm still young enough I will keep on going the route of trying to draw a Henries rifle, muzzy or archery tag. I'll be 60 in 15 years and I really think that the pool of applicants by then will look a lot different.

Gator · Jan 21, 2017

With 15 years I would be waiting to draw a regular tag for it too, I have seen some of those management bucks that score way over 175, Guys in their mid 60s will be jumping into that management hunt just so they can draw and use those years of points that includes me in a few years.

"I have found if you go the extra mile it's Never crowded".
>[Font][Font color = "green"]Life member of
>the MM green signature club.[font/]