Another Drawing statistics question

txhunter58 · Mar 28, 2017

LAST EDITED ON Mar-28-17 AT 09:03PM (MST)[p]Question:

Data in statistics for SECOND choice says there were 150 people who put in and 80 people who drew as a second choice.

Do that mean that 150 people were actually in the second drawing, or that 150 people put that as a second choice on their application?

In the first scenario, that would mean that you have a 53.3% chance of drawing it as a second choice. 80 divided by 150.

If the second assumption is true, then your odds were better than 53.3% because some of those people drew their first option, and were taken out of the second drawing.

I know what I think happens (the second option), but does anyone know for sure?

txhunter58

venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore I am)

muleymark · Mar 28, 2017

I think it means the number of people who listed it as a second choice on their app but were not necessarily in the drawing for second choice for that tag. If you find a tag that was drawn at the third or fourth choice you see that maybe 40 people drew as a second choice, while there were maybe 100 in the pre draw applicants for second choice for that tag. Some of those people must not have been in the second choice drawing, because they would have drawn before anyone who listed it as a third or fourth choice. I hope that makes sense.

ColoradoOak · Mar 28, 2017

The second assumption is true. The draw recap lists total applications with the hunt code as a second choice. Obviously many drew their first choice. This is easy to determine by looking at hunt codes where applicants drew as a third or fourth choice. You will see that far fewer people drew second choice than had it on their app.

ColoradoOak · Mar 28, 2017

muleymark · Mar 28, 2017

It would be helpful to see how many people were in the actual drawing for a second choice though.

txhunter58 · Mar 29, 2017

Yes it would be very helpful. However, in the example above, if only 25% of the people drew that would mean 37 people were taken out of the drawing. So odds would go from 53% to
71%

txhunter58

venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore I am)

SDBugler · Mar 29, 2017

Thanks for posting this question and to those who provided answers. I have been wondering the same thing for quite a while! that is why I love this site. Sharing of lots of good information.