Last Chance

txjp · Feb 5, 2019

Well my daughter has been trying to draw an elk tag in NM for 6 year as a youth. This will be her last shot! Pun intended. I'm going to go with an outfitter to increase the odds, but what do you think is her best chance to draw? I've been trying 34 and 16. Do you think there is a better shot at muzzy?

Any thoughts?

Jason

505Outfitters · Feb 5, 2019

Pm sent.

vinihunt · Feb 6, 2019

talk to Triple C Outfitter.

bticked · Feb 6, 2019

PM sent!

throwfar · Feb 6, 2019

LAST EDITED ON Feb-06-19 AT 12:42PM (MST)[p]I'm not sure if you've done the math but your odds are about the same either way you go. You're looking at 2.5-4% as a resident, 1-2% as a non resident and 3-4% putting in with a guide, which works out to your chance of drawing a youth tag to once every 25-50 years so it's not hard to see how you haven't drawn 6 years.

roadrunner · Feb 6, 2019

Youth hunts usually have better odds than applying for "adult" hunts, especially when they are at the same time.

My daughter only has two years left as well for a youth bull, but the season date is screwed up this year for it, so I am putting her in for a regular hunt at a different time.

txjp · Feb 6, 2019

yes I have done the math and I am not surprised that she hasn't drawn a tag. I am just trying to giver her the best shot for her last youth draw. So going to go through a guide and was just wondering if anyone had any idea's beside what I am doing or 10k land owner tag. I have never done the math on applying as an adult vs youth. Or maybe some of the easier draw units as an adult vs youth. I don't know.

HOPING someone had a magic button really!

Barrera · Feb 6, 2019

Look into other adult hunts with better odds than the youth for 2nd and 3rd choice including muzzleloader. Look past what gnf labels a youth hunt. Especially this yrs VV youth. If you select all youth hunts every year then odds are slim to draw. My two sons have taken more elk including 3 bulls on so called adult hunts since 2014. Think the most important thing is maximizing her draw opportunity and getting a tag. If you need assistance with her draw odds let me know.

bjn7f0 · Feb 6, 2019

TXJP

Is your daughter applying as a resident of NM or non-resident? Are her weapons choices rifle and muzzle loader? What do you want to put her in for?

Feel free to PM me if you'ld like and I can help you out.

Muleman · Feb 6, 2019

LAST EDITED ON Feb-06-19 AT 04:17PM (MST)[p]The youth hunts are the best hunts but not the best chance to draw. Sometimes putting in with an outfitter can help or hurt your draw odd. Just depends how many hunters put in with an outfitter, they get 10% of the tags where non resident non outfitted get 6%, 84% to residents. Study the draw odds and see which has a better % chance of drawing. I will give you a hint, there are no rifle or muzzle load bull tags that have good drawing odds but some are better than others. The muzzleloader youth hunts have better draw odds than the youth Bull rifle

txjp · Feb 6, 2019

Thanks for all the response I appreciate the help.
We are NR and yes I have been just putting her in the youth hunts. I will definitely start looking into the adult pool as well.

txjp · Feb 6, 2019

Rifle or muzzy she is not quite strong enough with the bow.

roadrunner · Feb 6, 2019

If rifle and muzzy, do as mentioned above and look at what hunts we as adults put in for. More tags mean more chances of her app coming up in thw draw process.

All the youth hunts do really is give the kiddos a chance with peers of the same skill level or sometimes a slightly better chance of drawing on some hunts.

toklat · Feb 6, 2019

Agree with what has been posted previously. Something to consider; mix her choices up with one youth only hunt you really like and two general pool (adult) hunts! Good luck.

Thomas11 · Feb 8, 2019

So there's only like 9 or so youth bull hunts for rifle and muzzy. They all have very low quotas(25 tags) w the exception of I think the 34 tag. So it's a very premium tag w great dates. But because of the very limited number of hunts and low quotas it really has terrible draw odds. If u are wanting to draw then u r much better in the adult pool from a standpoint of draw odds.