Bonus points squared

tkhunt · Jan 16, 2012

I just got off MFWP's web sight and see they are going to square the bonus points this year. At least those with the most points should see a little advantage for elk. What I hate to see is how long Montana youth will have to wait to draw a premium tag.

beech18 · Jan 17, 2012

After reading your post I surfed the web site and see what your talking about. They talked about elk and deer for being squared, couldnt locate if they'll do the same for all species or not? In my opinion each system has its pro's and con's pending on view point. I think the squared system is one of the fairest ways to do the draws.

MTSHEDHEDZ · Jan 17, 2012

Anyone have a link?

beech18 · Jan 17, 2012

This is where I read it at:
http://fwp.mt.gov/hunting/licenses/bonuspoints.html

tkhunt · Jan 17, 2012

I just got off the phone with fish and game and the person told me that squared bonus points apply to all species. I agree that this is the most fair way to allocate tags but is does make it hard for youth to draw a tag very quick.

MTSHEDHEDZ · Jan 17, 2012

If it actually gives the guys with lots of points(many years of unsucsseful draws) better odds Im all for it,if its another lame attempt to make you feel like your odds are imroving why waste our time?

Stubaby · Jan 17, 2012

I just called the fish and game. I just game them 10 bucks and my points get raised to the 100th power. : ).

I like the idea. I also wish Moose, Sheep, and Goat were once in a lifetime tags......I feel bad for the poor guy who has put in for sheep say 40 years and has never drawn and somebody else gets lucky and draws 3 times in 20 years.

"That's a special feeling, Lloyd"

BuzzH · Jan 17, 2012

I wish they were OIL as well.

But, I'll be crossing my fingers for my second goat and second moose tags when I apply this year.

30Hart · Jan 19, 2012

About time they did something for sheep, moose and goat...the system was an absolute joke...still will only help a little because of the massive amount of people that have max points for sheep.

bowedark · Jan 19, 2012

LAST EDITED ON Jan-19-12 AT 09:22AM (MST)[p]I talk the MT. G&F. Squared point only go to the deer & elk. Moose sheep and goat have NOT changed. If you have 9 points you go in the draw only 9 times. Moose sheep have not change.

beech18 · Jan 19, 2012

I just called Helena head office. They told me they are squaring bonus points for all species including sheep, moose, goat. Weather the guy knows what he was talking about or not, that I dont know but thats what I was told.

bowedark · Jan 19, 2012

GOOD!! with 9 points I will go in 81 times. Maybe I will draw this year before I get to old.

golfer · Jan 19, 2012

But by the FWP squaring the bonus points, if you sit down and do the math, you really don't have any better odds of drawing, cause everyone else's odds have increased too.

tkhunt · Jan 19, 2012

Your math only works if you look at just he people with max points. It hammers the people with very few points. This system favors those who has the most points. I think it is the most fair system but for young people it sure hurts their chances. I think with this system Montana should start being more youth friendly with some premium youth tags.

MTSHEDHEDZ · Jan 19, 2012

.....makes no sense...how long did it take some overpayed genius to come up with this?

Zigga · Jan 19, 2012

>.....makes no sense...how long did it
>take some overpayed genius to
>come up with this?

You obviously don't have max points. Wish me luck!

BuzzH · Jan 20, 2012

Its a great deal for those with max points, and although I'm no fan of point systems, this one makes the most sense.

MTSHEDHEDZ · Jan 20, 2012

Explain to me how it gives you an advantage you didnt have before....if you had 9 points you will have 81,just like everyone else with 9.If you have 8 it gives you 64 points,just like everyone else with 8,ect,ect.

beech18 · Jan 20, 2012

If you have 9 points gives you 81 chances in the hat to draw the tag. The person with 2 points has 4 chances in the hat. It gives the people with high points a higher advantage of drawing. As with out the squared system in that senerio it would be 9 chances vers 2 in the hat, with the squared system is 81 vers 4. Much higher odds of the tag going to the higher point holders, yet it does still give the person with low points a chance in drawing.

Zigga · Jan 20, 2012

I like it because I have max points. The problem is when you and 100 other people with max points put in for an area that has a quota of 4 animals then you really aren't gaining much and will still take a few years to guarantee anything. By then, who knows how they will do the draw. You are basically competing with the number of people with max points although some lucky bastuds will draw tags.

MTSHEDHEDZ · Jan 20, 2012

I have max points for elk,with my draw luck they could square mine alone and id still strike out!

BuzzH · Jan 20, 2012

It will take a while, but its going to be more and more difficult for the new applicants to draw over those with the most points as time goes on.

Also, I think if a max point holder is wise...there are areas for all species that will give max point holders a real advantage and significantly increase draw odds.

Research is your friend...

MTSHEDHEDZ · Jan 20, 2012

There are but I am dead set on drawing a bull tag on our place,odds are not good at all,lots of guys with max points applying.

Bambistew · Jan 20, 2012

I looked at about 10 random moose/sheep/goat areas and compared draw odds for the old system to the new.

The odds are pretty similar between the new/old around 6-7 points. If you have more than 6-7 points the new system increases your odds, less and your odds decrease.

With sheep... you're still screwed.

Even if your odds double you're still looking at less than 1% with max points.

BuzzH · Jan 20, 2012

Is there a list anywhere that shows how many people have max points...

Its going to be pretty tough to calculate draw odds without knowing how many people are in each point pool.

Bambistew · Jan 20, 2012

There's a spreadsheet on the F&G site that breaks down each unit by applicant/points.

BuzzH · Jan 20, 2012

thanks...will look at it.

beech18 · Jan 20, 2012

Im one of the max point holder for sheep and goat. Even with this change Im not too hopefull. Yet, someones got to draw'em right? My father drew the a breaks sheep tag 4 years ago, then the next year after drew square butte goat tag. Im hoping some of his luck will transfer to me.

When we were checking his sheep in at Lewiston. The one guy there checking it said betweem him and his wife has over 70 years of applying and no tag yet.

We spoke to a rancher when doing the goats in that area, his land butts up to square butt. He said, he knows a guy who has drawn that tag twice in his lifetime.

HornedToad · Feb 11, 2012

LAST EDITED ON Feb-11-12 AT 09:07AM (MST)[p]I ran the numbers on a few of the non-resident Bighorn Sheep areas. Here are the improvements for Max Point holders (10 for 2011) assuming the number of permits drawn and the number of applicants for each unit remain the same:

unit
no. of non-res permits (2011)
no. of non-res applicants (2011)
no. of Max Pt non-res applicants (2011)
draw % w/ no bonus points
draw % w/ bonus points (current system)
draw % w/ bonus points squared (possible new system)

680
2
3079
452
0.065% (1 in 1539)
0.126% (1 in 793)
0.372% (1 in 537)

121
1
644
98
0.155% (1 in 644)
0.289% (1 in 346)
0.413% (1 in 242)

100
1
92
7
1.087% (1 in 92)
2.397% (1 in 42)
3.953% (1 in 25)

As can be seen, a change to squaring bonus points improves the draw odds of a non-res Max Pt holder by about 50%... but the odds are still long.

As Bambistew noted, the breakeven point on odds improvement (where the impact on an applicant from a simple weighted point system to a squared system is neutral) is at about 7 bonus points.

Making the change to a squared point system will not do much for improving the chance of drawing one of Montana's premier bighorn units... but since I am at Max Pts, why not. The improvement differential will only increase as the years go by.

Good luck in the draws.

HT