2020 expo draw report

[desperatehills]

So I got a email today for the 2022 Hunt Expo and it got me thinking about the odds from last year with not needing to validate in person. I looked up the number of applicants from last year and something did not seem quite right. I do not track the numbers to closely but I know 10 years ago the non-resident only tag applicants were around 750 and a couple years ago they were up to near 1200. I could not find the 5 hunts that are for NR only. Did they eliminate those 5 hunts or make them available to everyone? I was going to look at those hunts to see how many more NR applied that wouldn't on a normal year. I also use the Henry mountain deer tag as a gauge. I figure if you were going to apply for only one tag that would be it. There were 12K+ applicants which I don't think that is much higher than a normal year. Maybe not having to validate in person did not hurt the odds as much as we thought it would. I know the odds are horrible on the normal years but my buddy got a West K desert sheep tag so I am going to keep playing the game. What are your thoughts on the odds 2021 vs 2020

 

[elkantlers]

The odds are so low that it really makes no difference from year to year. If someone applies for these tags because they think they have a good odds of drawing then they are delusional.
(SFW leadership and Board/RAC members excluded. They have good odds. lol)
If these tags were about making the maximum amount of money the DWR would never make in person validation required again.

 

[JakeH]

People forget that all those people had to buy a small game license to put in, I'm sure that discouraged a ton of nonresident people from trying for tags when they have to drop $75 just to put in.

 

[elkantlers]

I doubt many NR hunters put in for the expo that haven't already applier for the regular big game draw and already have a BG license.

 

[desperatehills]

I think you guys are spot on. Without in person validation most of us thought the odds would go down horribly. I did not really think about the part where you need a current hunting license to apply because I have that already from the regular draw.

 

[go4steelhd]

I don't think most people knew that you could apply this year online and not in person. I was watching the meeting updates to see if they would have it in person this year because I was planning on going with a friend. During that process I read that you could apply online. This is the first year I have applied, and I did draw an excellent tag.

 

[sticksender]

desperatehills, to answer your question, no they didn't offer any NR-only tags in 2021 like they would do in a normal year to incentivize attendance.

Taking a glance at a just few of the most-wanted licenses, the number of chances sold in 2021 were higher than 2020, across the board, but not as drastically as you might have thought:

Paunsaugunt Premium Buck Deer increased from 9237 to 11964
Henry Mtns Premium Buck Deer increased from 10345 to 12943
San Juan early rifle elk increased from 6406 to 8409
Wasatch Bull Moose increased from 8300 to 11737
Kaiparowits W Desert Sheep increased from 7728 to 9010
Box Elder Rocky Sheep increased from 7983 to 9139

 

[desperatehills]

Thanks Sticksender, that is exactly what I was curious about. I honestly thought there could be 30,000 applicants for some of the better tags

 

[BrowningRage]

The Pauns tag went up 29.5%...
Henry's up 25%...
San Juan Elk up 31.2%...
Wasatch Moose up 41.4%...

I think those are pretty substantial increases... If they do no validation again, I think it will climb again. Which makes me like it even less.

 

[GoatT]

So I got a email today for the 2022 Hunt Expo and it got me thinking about the odds from last year with not needing to validate in person. I looked up the number of applicants from last year and something did not seem quite right. I do not track the numbers to closely but I know 10 years ago the non-resident only tag applicants were around 750 and a couple years ago they were up to near 1200. I could not find the 5 hunts that are for NR only. Did they eliminate those 5 hunts or make them available to everyone? I was going to look at those hunts to see how many more NR applied that wouldn't on a normal year. I also use the Henry mountain deer tag as a gauge. I figure if you were going to apply for only one tag that would be it. There were 12K+ applicants which I don't think that is much higher than a normal year. Maybe not having to validate in person did not hurt the odds as much as we thought it would. I know the odds are horrible on the normal years but my buddy got a West K desert sheep tag so I am going to keep playing the game. What are your thoughts on the odds 2021 vs 2020

Since 2016 there has only been about a 5%-10% increase each year in applications. This last year with the no validate in person rule it had a 38% jump from last year.

 

[hornkiller]

More and more idiots making $.f.w. more $$$ every year that's the plan!

 

[GoatT]

The Pauns tag went up 29.5%...
Henry's up 25%...
San Juan Elk up 31.2%...
Wasatch Moose up 41.4%...

I think those are pretty substantial increases... If they do no validation again, I think it will climb again. Which makes me like it even less.

Each year on any of the given tags, the chance of drawing has dropped. I couldn't find any where where it increased. To give perspective, you can see that since 2007 when the expo started, the number of applicants has increased by almost 4x. Also, if you look at the tags given in 221 versus 2007 you will find that more antlerless, bear, turkey tags are given out then back then, so each year it seems we loose some of the better buck, bull, OIL tags.

 

[GoatT]

Thanks Sticksender, that is exactly what I was curious about. I honestly thought there could be 30,000 applicants for some of the better tags

Moat tags are anywhere between 2000-5000 applications. Some of the more premium tags have upwards of 7000-12000.

 

[Vanilla]

Also, if you look at the tags given in 221 versus 2007 you will find that more antlerless, bear, turkey tags are given out then back then, so each year it seems we loose some of the better buck, bull, OIL tags.

This is the dirty little secret they don’t want people to notice. I’ve brought this up several times in the past. Adding in cow elk permits did not increase the number tags. And removing those top end LE/OIL tags didn’t put more back in the public draw. So where did they go? To the auction and to “conservation” organization banquets.

 

[hossblur]

Imagine how bad of shape our deer would be in if not for those $fw banquets???????