Are the Utah DWR buck to doe ratios accurate? What is your opinion?

H

hilltophunter

Member
Messages
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I think this topic is a good one to discuss.

My personal opinion is that the estimates are innaccurate.

The season for the unit that I hunt was shortened for a number of years because of the supposed buck to doe ratio, but I didn't experience any less number of bucks in the areas I hunt during those years. The bucks overall for those years seem to be on average younger in age, but I would still see roughly 6-8 bucks for every one doe at the higher elevations and then the exact reverse lower in the canyons.

I'm pretty sure most of the biologists, etc. that are counting these buck to doe ratios are doing it in November from a truck during the rut. There are a large number of deer, especially bucks that don't drop into the foothills until later in the winter months and you just can't get a good count on the buck to doe ratios from a pickup truck.

I feel that hiking the mountains in the summer months while the deer are in velvet and counting the herds at both higher and lower elevations would be a much more accurate way to estimate the buck to doe ratios for managing the herds.

Lets hear some of your experiences and opinions??
 
I think that the whole buck to doe ratio is BS! Doesn't take in account the total population.



________________________________________
;-) Mickey Mouse Outfitters provides an experience you will never forget, because we always do it Micky Mouse style. We always guarantee shots. It might be at the ground or in the air, but it's a guarantee we are committed to.
 
Since they base tag numbers in an area on the Buck to Doe ratio, I believe you are in a good situation HilltopHunter. In your area, there are apparently more bucks than you think the DNR is estimating, so, they alot less tags in your area, keeping hunter numbers lower, but in your case, there are actually more bucks apparently, in which case, you should be enjoying a pretty good hunting season most of the time. I'd say, let it be and enjoy the benefits to you... :) :)

"Therefore, wo be unto him that is at ease in Zion!" 2 Ne. 28: 24
 
Based on the statistics that the DWR sends out:


DWR estimates the deer population around 310,000 this year.

DWR estimates that around 20,000 Deer were harvested during the 2012 season


the DWR estimates that for every one dead deer found (reported) on the side of the road, 7 others ran off and died out of sight (not reported)- 2011 stats fall in line with previous years at 20,000 road kill deer.



.....if you are follwing still, that would be about 180,000 dead deer so far.


Then take into consideration the mountain lion polulation estimated to be around 3,000 cats that average one kill per cat per week...TOTALING 156,000 dead deer a year.



Now, just based off of the DWR's stats, there are 310 deer in Utah, but last year we killed 336,000 deer....


That's not taking into account coyote kills, winter mortality, etc etc etc....


So you tell me... Do you think the buck to doe ratio's are correct???


IMO I think these numbers are justifications of certain Wildlife Officer's jobs. I don't think any of the nubmbers are accurate, but then again, I am just an armchair biologist.
 
Let's Quit Worrying about PISSCUTTER Buck to Doe Ratio's!

Who GAF rather we have 15 yearling PISSCUTTERS per 100 Does with Milk still on their Lips?

Let's Bring a Healthy Mule Deer Herd Back with some Genetics & some Age Class & Mother Nature will take care of the Rest when Managed Properly!

I do NOT have a Degree in WildLife Biology & further more don't believe you need to be Brainwashed with BS to figure this Deal out!

They Ain't comming back Boys!

Too many different Factors involved!

Sad but True!




This Story happens alot it's True!
But Ya Best Hope it don't ever happen to you!
 
They don't have the personnel to hike those units. They want the buck count after the season, not before. And their counts are as accurate as they are going to get. The buck population is going to vary from area to area in the same unit. What they try to achieve is a consistent count in the same area at the same time of year. Year after year. It's actually a fairly accurate system and its the only reasonable way to count animals.
 
The problem with "hiking the mountains in the summer months while the deer are in velvet and counting the herds at both higher and lower elevations" is that you dont get an accurate post season number of bucks to breed the does.

The reason you are seing much smaller deer than previously is because they are being shot during the season. I agree with limiting the number of deer tags to manage statewide like Colorado and Nevada do @ 25-35 bucks/100 does.
 
I have argued for many years the DWRs herd estimates were
much higher than the actual number of deer ......

Now buck to doe ratio's,, same boat.
High estamates to justify TOO MANY PERMITS!!!!!

I say cut the general deer tags by %50..
Then We'll get somewere!



4aec49a65c565954.jpg
 
Hey goofy?

I expect a Day by Day Deer Count While you're Hunting Elk on Anthro this Fall!

Let's see if you come up with Enough Deer to even Justify a Deer Hunt on the Unit!




This Story happens alot it's True!
But Ya Best Hope it don't ever happen to you!
 
Bess, If it's like it was in 2004,
THERE ISN'T ANY DEER ON ANTHRO!!!!!

During my 2004 hunt there, spent around 30 days in June,
July, then August, September ... Scouting /hunting my bull.

Glassed my azz off, hit damn near every inch of forest ground,
Saw about 30 to 40 deer,,, 4 Bucks total!!!!!

I'll keep ya posted what I see this year, I will start looking
next month.........


4aec49a65c565954.jpg
 
Post season count, Now when should it start after the winter kill/traffic related or before winter sets in like the week after the season.
A spring count just might be closer to getting actual numbers.

"I have found if you go the extra mile it's Never crowded".
>[Font][Font color = "green"]Life member of
>the MM green signature club.[font/]
 
LAST EDITED ON Jun-22-13 AT 10:31PM (MST)[p]Goofyelk,

They have cut the tags 50%!!! Remember???? It made a ton of sense until they tried it. Some of us are wondering why that didn't work. Others don't wonder about it. They just robotically keep saying we need more cuts. No thanks on more mindless restrictions.
 
If my memory serves me (It usually doesn't) they issued 250k deer tags in 1988 and ended up killed around 80k deer.


obviously cutting tag numbers works....
 
LAST EDITED ON Jun-23-13 AT 11:53AM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Jun-23-13 AT 11:35?AM (MST)

>If my memory serves me (It
>usually doesn't) they issued 250k
>deer tags in 1988 and
>ended up killed around 80k
>deer.
>
>
>obviously cutting tag numbers works....

For the record;

From 1977 to 1992 there were over 200,000 total deer hunters (1984 - 199,428) with an average of 223,510 and an average of 75,127 total deer killed.

From 1993 to 2010 there were an average of 98,673 total deer hunters and an average of 30,288 total deer killed.

In 1994 the tags were officially cut more than 50%! Did it work?

Edited: Your memory was off a bit. 1988 - 248,685 hunters, 90,738 total deer killed.
 
WTH Does Buck to Doe Ratio Matter when they Hunt em to Death!

Ya!

Add the Other 30 Factors in also!

Managing Herds for Buck to Doe Ratio's is total BS!

Ands it's proven it doesn't work!

Lets bring the total Breeding Stock(Herd!) numbers back up with some PISSCUTTERS living past age 2.5!

I don't care if Joe Blow is Pissed off at the world for a few years cuzz He didn't get to Bragg about killing a Dink Buck every year of his Life!






This Story happens alot it's True!
But Ya Best Hope it don't ever happen to you!
 
>WTH Does Buck to Doe Ratio
>Matter when they Hunt em
>to Death!
>
>Ya!
>
>Add the Other 30 Factors in
>also!
>
>Managing Herds for Buck to Doe
>Ratio's is total BS!
>
>Ands it's proven it doesn't work!
>
>
>Lets bring the total Breeding Stock(Herd!)
>numbers back up with some
>PISSCUTTERS living past age 2.5!
>
>
>I don't care if Joe Blow
>is Pissed off at the
>world for a few years
>cuzz He didn't get to
>Bragg about killing a Dink
>Buck every year of his
>Life!
>
>
>
>
>
>
>This Story happens alot it's True!
>
>But Ya Best Hope it don't
>ever happen to you!
>

Geeze elkassassin, you are like a double edged sword, or better yet, an enigma. You make a very valid and significant statement, then follow it up with an asinine one, although I understand why you do that.

But you are right, IMO, that most if not all of hunters' concerns, buck to doe ratios, tag numbers, etc., would be solved if the mule deer herd could be grown to maximum range capacity, whatever that is. As you have pointed out on many occasions, there are a myriad of negative symptoms the mule deer is facing across the west, not just Utah. Unfortunately, that is exactly what the wildlife agencies in those states are addressing, the symptoms of mule deer stagnation and in some cases, decline. The main reason for their focus on such things is more political than science. I do understand your frustrations, as well as those of other deer hunters.

As far as the OP's original question, no, I don't think they are accurate in a mathematical quantitative respect, but that's relative in the scheme of todays current management system. Utah does their counts using the same models and methods as most other western states, and what is most important in all of that is herd trends, not exact numbers. Many hunters have a hard time understanding that concept for whatever reason(s).

Unless these wildlife agencies can get out of the 'routine' of hunter and 'tag' management, and devote time, effort and money to finding out the limiting root factor of our mule deer issues, we will continue to debate and become exacerbated over the same things, ad nauseum. I feel and share your pain.


www.unitedwildlifecooperative.org
 
Well!

I'm old enopugh to Remember the tail End of the Banner Days of Mule Deer in TARDville!

(((Ya,I was Born a little too late!)))

Seen the Herd with My own eyes Fall Hard since 1972!

That's 40+ years ago now,Right?

Don't You Think in 40 Years We coulda done Better?

I've Hunted Hard to try & Put that Buck of a LifeTime on the Wall!

It Ain't happened yet!

Probably Ain't going to!

In 32 years I've Failed not to Harvest Mr Big Buck!

Not Complaining,took a Decent Buck or two in my day,just not any Bucks like there were in the Good Days!(60's-Early 70's!)

So did I screw up?

Probably!

I coulda took the time & money I've Spent in the Last 32 years of PISSCUTTIN and Hunted a Couple times with Doyle or other Guides & maybe had a couple on the Wall already!

Just Ain't my Style though,Surely Not Bashin Doyle!

I'll keep Hunting A Herd with Bad Genetics,Low overall Herd Numbers,5-6 Months of Hunting Pressure,Poor Buck to Doe Ratio's and where a Buck that makes it past age 4 is one in a Million!

I'll either Get Him or I won't!

Gonna Give it Hell & Have Fun Trying!

I don't see any Changes Harsh enough to Bring Em Back!

We gonna Screw it up even more in the next 40 years?


This Story happens alot it's True!
But Ya Best Hope it don't ever happen to you!
 
Well Bess, times change that's for sure. I grew up hunting with dad in the late 50's through the 60's then on my own after he passed. I too have seen the same changes, but I still have hope. Given what friends have told me about you, I surely hope you will one day soon take that wall hanger you've been hunting for.

I know I will continue to push for solutions to an as of yet unknown problem with our mule deer; they are still my passion. I can tell you this: There are things being looked at that have some very positive possibilites, so not all is lost yet. Best of luck to you this fall.

www.unitedwildlifecooperative.org
 
Are the Buck to Doe ratios accurate? In my opinion only in some units. I have lost a lot of trust in accuracy of their counting, The thing that just baffled me the most was the year before they made the changes to all the deer units statewide and they released a statewide deer count for the units. The Units that stood out to me were really different than what my opinion would be #1 Was the estimated deer herd on the south slope Yellowstone unit exceeded the total number of deer on the Book Cliff unit I mean give me a freeking break. Not to mention multiple others if I knew how to find and post the link to that count I would.
 
>Are the Buck to Doe ratios
>accurate? In my opinion
>only in some units.
>I have lost a lot
>of trust in accuracy of
>their counting, The thing
>that just baffled me the
>most was the year before
>they made the changes to
>all the deer units
>statewide and they released a
>statewide deer count for the
>units. The Units
>that stood out to me
>were really different than what
>my opinion would be #1
>Was the estimated deer herd
>on the south slope Yellowstone
>unit exceeded the total number
>of deer on the Book
>Cliff unit I mean give
>me a freeking break.
> Not to mention multiple
>others if I
>knew how to find and
>post the link to that
>count I would.

Well Sloper!

This happened several years ago:

The DWR had the South Slope Yellowstone divided in to 4 Sub Units!

In the Writing,if the Buck to Doe Ratio got below Objectives,the Unit Had to be closed or something else done with Management!

Know what they done?

1 or 2 of the Sub Units were below Objectives,while the other 2 were slightly above Objectives!

Added all numbers together & Divided by 4 & By Gawd left all the Sub Units Open to even get hit Harder than ever!

JFP!!!

OK!

I'm Done!

I don't need to Sound like a Broken Record!

You all know How I feel!








This Story happens alot it's True!
But Ya Best Hope it don't ever happen to you!
 
Lots of credit for memory. Still trying to figure out if you are serious about the tag cut working.
 
Here is a blazing example of arm chair biology.

Travishunter is speaking to population counts, not sex ratios. (There are many problems with his model using 7 dead deer/1 road collision, 1x/week mountain lion, etc. But, that is a different topic.)

Methods used to do counts have been scientifically tested and found to be the best ways to count. These methods are far from perfect, just like any sample of a population. But, if you can count enough individuals, your sample error goes down; hence, the use of the truck. You make the implication that biologists are lazy and don't leave their trucks. If you want to discuss whether or not biologists are undermanned, the answer is yes. If you have one person who is supposed to sample deer population on two, three, or four units, and he/she has only three weeks to do it, would you want he/she spending an entire day in one canyon. How big and how accurate of a sample would be collected? Or, the biologist could drive to good vantage point and use optics to count bucks and does in the only time of year where the two are together and most active (viewable).

This leads us into the divergent nature of sexual segregation on the habitat. During the rut is the best time to obtain semi-accurate ratio based counts! No discussion should be needed, but I will give some to appease the people who only run their brains long enough to find something stupid to say on a forum. I will just point out a few problems with sampling in the summer time, since this was suggested. During the summer, bucks group up and tend to live on fringe habitat (tops of peaks, ends of ridges, etc.) they become somewhat easier to spot in a shorter sample time. Does will often be solitary or in small groups and become more cryptic and spread out more evenly on the habitat. Thus in equal sampling time, you will be more likely to miss males completely and count few does, or count many males on smaller fringe areas and still only count a few does; thus, leading to bad ratio counts.

So, you want to talk about bad models and bad counting practices, this thread contain some of the worst ideas I have heard and the epitome of foolishness. Yes, you are armchair biologists.

Some people spoke to managing numbers, not sex ratios. The division uses sex ratios to set hunting tag numbers for opportunity vs. quality. Sex ratio numbers are not solely used to set tag numbers, except on limited entry units with age data. If you are talking about growing the herd size than you are talking about females, not male harvest!!! This seems to be an impossible thing for forumites and fools at the RAC meeting to understand. On Monroe Mountain in the fall of 2011 the buck doe ratio was around ~10/100 does. Even forumites seemed to agree that it was one of the worst in the state. 70 does were captured that winter from helicopter. 69 of 70 were pregnant and mean parturition date was no different than other units in Colorado that had over 30 bucks per 100 does. BUCK HARVEST IS NOT DRIVING POPULATION TRENDS!!!!!

If you are charged with setting opportunity and quality, buck doe ratios are the best way to set those numbers! (ie: Henry mountains vs Monroe mountain, can you see a difference?) Counting during the rut is the best way to sample the sex ratio in the population.

I am so tired of the biologist being ripped because they are the easy targets. I know many of the biologists in the state of Utah. Some biologists, I don't think are very great. But, the systems they use come from peer reviewed science. The methods are not perfect, but they are the best we have so far.
Hunters are the most passionate/under educated group of hobbyists I have ever witnessed. We are more intelligent than these forums seem to suggest, I hope. We need to get more involved and educated. Then, we can ask better questions and demand more from the state management of herds. But, until you become more educated, the speaker at the rack meeting is going to listen to your dumb comments, shake his head, and move on.

Here is the help section. If you want to learn about management and help, here is what to do. Learn your biologists name and contact info. Contact him/her and offer to go on sex ratio counts in November. Spend 2-4 days with them. The lazy biologists will be more motivated to work hard if you are there with them and the hard working biologists might teach you a thing or two. Volunteer to help on research projects around the state. Being around researchers will give you great insight into the current knowledge of mule deer biology and ecology. But, whatever you do, please stop logging on to forums and spatting off about things that you know very little about. Although, if you cannot control yourself and you have to mindlessly complain, I would prefer that you do it on the forum and not the RAC meeting. RAC meetings have great potential but currently consist mainly of idiot after idiot standing at the mic complaining and making Anis jokes (yawn).

Sorry for length and ranting nature of the post.

I just reread this post before I posted it and I already see where all the attacks will come back at me. I wish I had more time to fix this post, but I have already been away from work for 30 minutes. Maybe I will post more later. I hope the basic idea of the post is conveyed. (The division may not be as dumb as you suspect.)
 
>Travishunter is speaking to population counts,
>not sex ratios. (There are
>many problems with his model
>using 7 dead deer/1 road
>collision, 1x/week mountain lion, etc.
>But, that is a different
>topic.)



Thank you for your observation. The stats I listed are given by the DWR. You can look them all up with a little research.

My post was to simply present that the COUNTS and the STATS that the DWR puts out are NOT accurate. If they were accurate then they would have had to close down shop last year due to a lack of living deer.


What is a good sex ratio when the DWR gives out counts that show no deer left at the end of a season....

Is 0:0 a good ratio for you?
 
My point was that you were talking about a different topic, the original post was about accuracy of sex ratio counts. I will concede that there are some problems/difficulties with the way the total population is calculated. But, I was pointing out that there are problems with your logic. First, lions kill one ungulate every 10-14 days not once a week. Although, some studies suggest that 81-89% of those are deer, in some areas of Utah that number has seemed to shift somewhat more to elk and in others areas sheep. Also, there is some evidence that even one kill every 14 days is too high, and that averaged over the entire year, the numbers are closer to one every 18-20 days. The state of Utah says that annual adult female survival (Mountian lions generally eat adult males and females) is around 85% (gathered form collar data across the state). So, there does seem to be some inconsistencies here either with lion numbers or deer numbers or deer killed by lion numbers. In any case, once everything is considered, your number of 156,000 is much too high.
Car collisions: The number 20,000 a year is already inflated. You inflated it again. Your numbers would suggest that 384 deer die every day on the roads in Utah. In any given year the number of reported accidents (which, by the way, include all wild ungulates not just deer) is around ~800-1000. So, 20,000 could still be high.
Not to mention that your entire argument is that the division counted mule deer numbers too low. That should be good for you. I assume your question to me regarded if I would like the ratio to be 0:0 was supposed to be funny or a burn of some kind. Those are the types of comments that waste everyone?s time at the RAC meetings. Again, more education, less ignorant complaining.
 
I know what you stated. My point was to show the inaccuracy of the DWR's counts.... so If they can't count the number of deer or provide accurate stats in other areas then how can they provide an accurate buck to doe ratio?


I know you are having hard time following but try and keep up.
 
Road kill... bullet points 11-14.

http://www.slideshare.net/UtahDWR/mule-deer-research-in-utah-april-2011

http://www.thewildlifenews.com/2009/12/14/are-more-deer-killed-on-utah-roadways-than-by-hunters/

http://www.ksl.com/?nid=148&sid=608384

http://www.berrymaninstitute.org/journal/spring2010/in_news_sp10.pdf


Just because you can't wrap your mind around a high number of deer being killed on the roads every year doesn't mean the guy who cited the articles is overestimating... (Are you still following?)



Lion Kills/Population

http://www.aws.vcn.com/mountain_lion_fact_sheet.html

http://wildlife.utah.gov/pdf/cmgtplan.pdf


So that I don't hurt your feelings again, I will UNDERESTIMATE the DWR given STATS...

3000 cats X 30 kills/year = 90,000 dead deer. (Are you still Following?)

Hunters kill about 20,000
Cars Kill about 20,000
(Even though the DWR estimates for every deer hit and killed on the road, 7 run off and die elsewhere, I'll figure an UNDERESTIMATED number)
Road Kill not accounted for (1:3): 60,000

That gives us a soft total of 190,000 dead deer.


So after UNDERESTIMATING the DWR given STATS, so as to not offend or hurt your feelings over the internet, of the ESTIMATED 310,000 deer in the state, only 120,000 are left.


Lucky for us their numbers are so accurate... lucky for us the buck to doe ratios are so accurate that we can drink the Koolaid all day long.
 
What are estimated statewide fawn recruitment totals on average? That would probably be close to the attrition that is stated above, validating a fairly stagnant population estimate over the last several years.
 
30 deer kills per lion per year is a fairly good number.
3,000 * 30 = 90,000

The Division did not report that 20,000 deer were picked up off the road. They reported ~4,100. Again, the number 20,000 was already inflated. If you want to add 7x, you are still somewhere around 30,000 (82 deer a day)

20,000 hunter killed.

90,000 + 30,000 + 20,000 = 140,000. I think your original number was 336,000 dead deer. It looks like we just dropped your counts by ~60%. Not sure you're the guy I'm taking population count advice from. #troublewitharmchairbiology

So, travishunter3006 thinks the estimate of the deer population is way too low. How do all the rest of you feel? Do you think he is on to something? According to his numbers we should be around ~600,000 deer.

travishunter3006, do you disagree with 310,000 estimated deer, or the survival numbers above? If you think 310,000 is somewhat close, but you disagree with the other numbers, I will argue no further.

Also, do you disagree with buck/doe ratios (ie: Monroe 12, Book Cliffs 35-40)? If so, how do you disagree? High? Low? Question also goes to anybody else.
 
Interesting posts-- My question to any of you-- When did the use of 1080 poison for use as predator control happen ? Take a look at the deer population numbers and see where the decline in population began showing up . IMO we worry so much about the road kill, winter range situations (valid concern) etc. that we are probably not focused in on the root problem of the overall reason for the decline of mule deer population. The fact is that in many areas the deer just can't out produce the predation. In the 60's if there was a bad winter and the deer herds took a major hit-- the next year wasn't going to be real great for hunting, but within a couple more years the population increased dramatically again. The dramatic swings don't seem to be happening anymore. I believe it is because of predators-- cougar, coyote,and now even bear. Cougars don't go into the grocery store and look for food on the vegetable isle they go straight to the meat department- coyotes are less picky and bears like both. But, they all take their slice of the deer population pie. Cougars don't kill just because they are starving. They kill first for food and second because they have the opportunity. According to DWR biologists at a RAC meeting, they do believe that an adult cougar will kill a deer once a week on average and lactating females will kill 2 a week at times. Coyotes seems to have moved more onto deer as their prey base because- according to a DWR biologist-- mice,voles and rabbits populations are very low.
If you don't think that predators are the main problems in mule deer recovery, then tell me why the DWR closed the Henry Mts years ago then proceeded to do everything they could to eliminate predators-- cougar and coyote-- as much as possible off the unit.
Predator control and elimination is more of a political battle than you may think. The DWR does its best to keep it on low profile so as to not draw the ire of the political groups that want to protect them at almost any cost. If we don't reduce the predator population by at least 50% we probably will never see much of an increase in deer population in the state.
 
Never have been! Never will be! I compare their numbers to the unemployment numbers the government throws out. You can spin them any way you want them to make you point.


It's always an adventure!!!
 

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