S
stinkystomper
Guest
LAST EDITED ON Jun-19-10 AT 02:06PM (MST)[p]Please read this entire post before you decide one way or the other on this contraversial subject.
I've been thinking about a way to go about changing the draw to try and make it a better system. Most people want numbers as proof in the pudding and others, I assume, will never be happy regardless.
What I am thinking about is trying to put a plan together that will not change draw odds on any current hunts as they currently sit. I would like to get some tags out of the landowner pool, about 20 percent across the board and shove them into a bonus point pool. This would allow hunters in NM to be assured of drawing the most premium hunts available once every so many years. Arizona has the best elk units in the nation and an arizona resident knows that with a bow he will get his tag once at least every ten years, and every 15 with a rifle. Well, NM offers far more tags than Arizona and I think we could possibly have an even better draw rate.
How would I prove this. Well proof would only come after several years of drawing but with the other states already providing data the mathematics will already have several data points to validate the overall plan. I have talked with some of the professors at The mathematics department at Texas Tech about assigning the NM draw system as a project to a masters or doctorate student that is specializing in statistics and stochaic mathematics. I assume that within a year they can have a very comprehensive and accurate model of how the draw odds will work. They will have to take into account people jumping from one unit to the next, worst case application growth from year to year, etc.
In addition I was going to talk with the business department about the 20% or so decrease in Landowner tags and see if they agree that a reduction in tags will most likely result in an increase in revenue when averaged over the years.
In summary what I would like to do is to come up with a draw system change towards a bonus point system that is scientifically backed and shows the NM draw as it currently sits will not change from its current structure of odds. The only change would be almost be guaranteed draw for the best tags once every "X" years. Yes there would be bonus point and yes there would be LO cuts be the broad picture would show everything to stay the same except you would know you would at least get to go hunting regardless of the low draw odds for each hunt. Tag numbers would stay the same etc.
Hatred asids what do you guys think? has this model already been built? I've already talke with the comission last fall and they seemed very agreeable if I could come up with a model. So before I do anything I figured I would get a draft together based on how the public views the whole current system.
I've been thinking about a way to go about changing the draw to try and make it a better system. Most people want numbers as proof in the pudding and others, I assume, will never be happy regardless.
What I am thinking about is trying to put a plan together that will not change draw odds on any current hunts as they currently sit. I would like to get some tags out of the landowner pool, about 20 percent across the board and shove them into a bonus point pool. This would allow hunters in NM to be assured of drawing the most premium hunts available once every so many years. Arizona has the best elk units in the nation and an arizona resident knows that with a bow he will get his tag once at least every ten years, and every 15 with a rifle. Well, NM offers far more tags than Arizona and I think we could possibly have an even better draw rate.
How would I prove this. Well proof would only come after several years of drawing but with the other states already providing data the mathematics will already have several data points to validate the overall plan. I have talked with some of the professors at The mathematics department at Texas Tech about assigning the NM draw system as a project to a masters or doctorate student that is specializing in statistics and stochaic mathematics. I assume that within a year they can have a very comprehensive and accurate model of how the draw odds will work. They will have to take into account people jumping from one unit to the next, worst case application growth from year to year, etc.
In addition I was going to talk with the business department about the 20% or so decrease in Landowner tags and see if they agree that a reduction in tags will most likely result in an increase in revenue when averaged over the years.
In summary what I would like to do is to come up with a draw system change towards a bonus point system that is scientifically backed and shows the NM draw as it currently sits will not change from its current structure of odds. The only change would be almost be guaranteed draw for the best tags once every "X" years. Yes there would be bonus point and yes there would be LO cuts be the broad picture would show everything to stay the same except you would know you would at least get to go hunting regardless of the low draw odds for each hunt. Tag numbers would stay the same etc.
Hatred asids what do you guys think? has this model already been built? I've already talke with the comission last fall and they seemed very agreeable if I could come up with a model. So before I do anything I figured I would get a draft together based on how the public views the whole current system.