Sorry to be a downer but depending on how many tags a particular CWMU has that goes to the public it can swing quite a bit from year to year because it only takes a couple guys with high points that decide to jump in and they can get all the bonus tags. If it is just 1 tag then it is almost impossible to judge by points because that will go in the random draw. So CWMUs are very difficult to judge from year to year how many points they will take to draw.
I hope for your sake they are still hitting cards though and you do get your tag but I'm guessing that they are getting down to the end of charging cards.