Elk Draw Questions

[SDBugler]

I have two questions related to the elk draw that I'm hoping somebody here can help answer.

1.) I understand that the landowner tags come off the available quota before the draw process. Does the WG&F post the actual number of non-res landowner tags actually issued each year for each unit and license type?

2.) I understand Chapter 44 and how the percentages are established (16% of available tags to NR's; those tags are split 40%/60% between special and regular; then "not less than" 75% are allocated in the preference point draw and "up to" 25% in the random draw. My question specifically is how do they round up and round down decimal places? I have noticed some discrepancies in some units and haven't been able to figure out how they get to their numbers. Below is an example from last year for unit 55 which is almost all wilderness and so likely no NR landowner tags issued:

50 total type 1 tags.
16% to NR's = 8 (last years total quota was 8)
40% to NR special = 3.2
60% to NR regular = 4.8
"at least" 75% of 3.2 = 2.4 (last years quota was actually 3 - so they rounded up?)
"up to" 25% of 3.2 = 0.8 (last years quota was actually 1)
"at least" 75% of 4.8 = 3.6 (last years quota was actually 3 - so they rounded down?)
"up to" 25% of 4.8 = 1.2 (last years quota was 1 so they rounded down)

The above numbers show inconsistent rounding of fractions.
The only way to get the 3/1 special and 3/1 regular quota allocations to work is they rounded UP the 3.2 special tags to 4 and rounded DOWN the 4.8 regular tags to 4?

If they say "up to" then wouldn't 0.8 have to round down to the next lower whole number?
If they say "at least" then wouldn't they round 0.6 up and not down?

Am I misunderstanding something?

 

[West River]

All the splits are on a state wide basis not unit basis so in reality they could sell all or sell none to nonresidents regular sell all or sell none to nonresidents special in any single unit.

 

[BigChiefJ]

1.) I understand that the landowner tags come off the available quota before the draw process. Does the WG&F post the actual number of non-res landowner tags actually issued each year for each unit and license type?

I don't know if they publish a list, but I emailed them last year and they said to look at previous drawing odds reports to see if an area has random tags for a hunt. Of course that doesn't guarantee an area will have random tags for the upcoming draw.

I haven't asked about rounding.

 

[SDBugler]

All the splits are on a state wide basis not unit basis so in reality they could sell all or sell none to nonresidents regular sell all or sell none to nonresidents special in any single unit.

I thought only the total amount (7,250 total tags) available to NR's was state wide basis?

My understanding of the regs is that each individual limited quota unit is allocated based on the total number of tags available for that unit and tag type and then the 84%/16% - 40%/60% - 75%/25% allocations.

 

[BuzzH]

I thought only the total amount (7,250 total tags) available to NR's was state wide basis?

View attachment 142365

My understanding of the regs is that each individual limited quota unit is allocated based on the total number of tags available for that unit and tag type and then the 84%/16% - 40%/60% - 75%/25% allocations.

That doesn't even apply anymore they dropped the cap.

The 16% applies to the statewide limited quota licenses, not individual units. Where does it say individual units? Answer: It doesn't.

Even though the GF seems to want to apply that to individual units, there is nothing in regulation compelling them to.

If regulation or statute doesn't specify "hunt area" then the quotas are statewide, in this case, it says "total available" not hunt area. This is causing problems with the MSGB, the split language for random/Preference absolutely says "hunt area". Meaning there has to be 4 tags in any HUNT AREA to ever issue a random tag. That is not the case for deer, elk and pronghorn.

To be honest, with all the splits, tiered fees, some splits in statute, others in regulation, it's a mess. For the record, you can thank WYOGA for all of it.

 

[BuzzH]

1.) I understand that the landowner tags come off the available quota before the draw process. Does the WG&F post the actual number of non-res landowner tags actually issued each year for each unit and license type?

I don't know if they publish a list, but I emailed them last year and they said to look at previous drawing odds reports to see if an area has random tags for a hunt. Of course that doesn't guarantee an area will have random tags for the upcoming draw.

I haven't asked about rounding.

The landowners are part of the draw, they just get drawn first. If there is a situation where more landowners apply than there are total available quota, they are drawn randomly. I don't recall if that is the case anywhere.

You can figure out how many landowner tags by adding up the available quota in the draw results and subtracting that from the unit quota. That will tell you how many LO tags. I also believe you could get that information via request, if not file a Chapter 1 request.

 

[jm77]

All the splits are on a state wide basis not unit basis so in reality they could sell all or sell none to nonresidents regular sell all or sell none to nonresidents special in any single unit.

What @BuzzH said, preference point split for moose and sheep is on a hunt area basis.

 

[West River]

Some land owner information is in the April 2024 Commission meeting note books on the Game and Fish web site.

 

[SDBugler]

Thanks for the reply.
Maybe there is confusion because the chapter 44 regs aren't 100% clear and we all either read between the lines or just assumed a little differently.

"That doesn't even apply anymore they dropped the cap."
My posted number 7,250 was right off the link in the WG&F website. I know there has been some recent changes and not sure if that is the most recent and correct number or not but I'm not really concerned about the "total" number but rather HOW they determine the allocation of limited quota elk tags.

"The 16% applies to the statewide limited quota licenses, not individual units. Where does it say individual units? Answer: It doesn't."
I agree, it doesn't' say that anywhere in the regs and I think that is maybe where some of the confusion comes into play.

"Even though the GF seems to want to apply that to individual units, there is nothing in regulation compelling them to."
I think that maybe answers my question. The G&F has historically applied the same formulas "closely" to individual units and many of us have wrongly "assumed" that they have used those same allocations on a unit by unit basis, but in reality they can do whatever they want holistically.

This would explain anomalies like units 56 and 59 type 1 tags where only 10 tags are issued but NR are getting 20% and R's are only getting 80%.
With no clear rules in place they could technically give all the NR tags out to general units and not even issue a single LQ tag to a NR!

I was simply trying to estimate how many tags will be available in some of the proposed unit/quota changes for this year. Probably the simple answer to my original question #2 is that there is no correct answer.

I guess I will just have to flip a coin to see where I finalize before the May 8 modification deadline

Thanks again!

 

[BuzzH]

.

This would explain anomalies like units 56 and 59 type 1 tags where only 10 tags are issued but NR are getting 20% and R's are only getting 80%.
With no clear rules in place they could technically give all the NR tags out to general units and not even issue a single LQ tag to a NR!

I was simply trying to estimate how many tags will be available in some of the proposed unit/quota changes for this year. Probably the simple answer to my original question #2 is that there is no correct answer.

I guess I will just have to flip a coin to see where I finalize before the May 8 modification deadline

Thanks again!

Not anymore because the cap is gone. General NR tags are their own separate pool, just like general deer tags.

There really isn't a correct answer, although in the past, I directly contacted the draw coordinator to make sure that there would be tags available in the hunt codes my NR friends were applying for. No fun in having a dead application.

 

[WapitiBob]

1)
NR Landowners have drawn every available NR tag in a hunt area at least once, a long time ago. I haven't kept up to know if that can still happen.

2)

5. Landowner Random Drawing is conducted

6. Quota balance from Landowner Preference Point Draw and Landowner Random Drawing are
combined to a new total quota available for each hunt area


Quota Available for Special Drawing:

7. Total Quota available after Landowner Drawings are Split for Special Draw and Regular Draw

40% (Round UP) quota to Special Drawing

60% (Round DOWN) quota to Regular Drawing

8. Special Drawing Quota is Split for Preference point Drawing and Random Drawing

75% (Round UP) Special Preference Point Drawing

25% (Round DOWN) Special Random Drawing

9. Special Preference Point Drawing is conducted

Quota balance is held to be made available for the Regular Drawing

Quota is not rolled to the Special Random Drawing

10. Special Random Drawing is conducted

Quota balance is held to be made available for the Regular Drawing



Quota Available for Regular Drawing:

11. New Quota balance is calculated for each hunt area

Original 60% for Nonresident Regular Drawing

Plus quota balance from the Nonresident Special Preference Point Drawing

Plus quota balance from the Nonresident Special Random Drawing

12. Quota balance available for Nonresident Regular Drawing is split for Preference Point Drawing and Random Drawing

75% (Round UP) Regular Preference Point Drawing

25% (Round DOWN) Regular Random Drawing


13. Conduct Regular Preference Point Drawing




14. Conduct Regular Random Drawing

 

[SDBugler]

WB
I didn't see anything noted for steps 2 - 4 in your post.
Where did you get this information from? it appears different than Chapter 44 of the regs.

 

[SDBugler]

Buzz
I've messaged the WG&F about this as well and no reply.
It would really be nice to know the available tag #'s for each unit and type before the mod deadline.
This is exactly the the reason I posted this question - with some of the new proposed LQ units I want to know how many tags are available in each of the units and each of the 4 different draws for unit. It shouldn't be that hard for them to post their expectaitons after the 2024 regs are finalized..
It would be great if this was a known quantity rather than a guess based on each individuals' assumptions of how things "might" be allocated.

I will leave it up to the commission and the state of WY how many tags they want to allocate to the NR's but just want a fair listing of what is actually available for each unit - nothing more. (obviously the landowner take will have a play in what is leftover for the draws)
As you know it is important to know if there is even a random draw tag available or not as to what unit to apply for.

Thanks again for your input on this topic. Much appreciated!

 

[jm77]

Buzz
I've messaged the WG&F about this as well and no reply.
It would really be nice to know the available tag #'s for each unit and type before the mod deadline.
This is exactly the the reason I posted this question - with some of the new proposed LQ units I want to know how many tags are available in each of the units and each of the 4 different draws for unit. It shouldn't be that hard for them to post their expectaitons after the 2024 regs are finalized..
It would be great if this was a known quantity rather than a guess based on each individuals' assumptions of how things "might" be allocated.

I will leave it up to the commission and the state of WY how many tags they want to allocate to the NR's but just want a fair listing of what is actually available for each unit - nothing more. (obviously the landowner take will have a play in what is leftover for the draws)
As you know it is important to know if there is even a random draw tag available or not as to what unit to apply for.

Thanks again for your input on this topic. Much appreciated!

To be sure, you do understand there are no landowner tags issued in 56 & 59 or in most NW Wyoming areas?

 

[WapitiBob]

WB
I didn't see anything noted for steps 2 - 4 in your post.
Where did you get this information from? it appears different than Chapter 44 of the regs.

I answered your questions 1) and 2).
draw steps 1-4:

QUOTA PROCESSING—FOR ALL HUNT AREAS


Quota Available for Landowner Drawing:

1. Total Quota is obtained for each hunt area

2. Quota is split between Resident and Nonresident Share (84% NR; 16% RES)

3. Nonresident Total Quota available for each hunt area is split for Landowner Draw

75% (Round UP) Preference Point Draw—Landowner Draw

25% (Round DOWN) Random Point Draw—Landowner Draw

 

[WapitiBob]

Buzz
I've messaged the WG&F about this as well and no reply.
It would really be nice to know the available tag #'s for each unit and type before the mod deadline.
This is exactly the the reason I posted this question - with some of the new proposed LQ units I want to know how many tags are available in each of the units and each of the 4 different draws for unit. It shouldn't be that hard for them to post their expectaitons after the 2024 regs are finalized..
It would be great if this was a known quantity rather than a guess based on each individuals' assumptions of how things "might" be allocated.

I will leave it up to the commission and the state of WY how many tags they want to allocate to the NR's but just want a fair listing of what is actually available for each unit - nothing more. (obviously the landowner take will have a play in what is leftover for the draws)
As you know it is important to know if there is even a random draw tag available or not as to what unit to apply for.

Thanks again for your input on this topic. Much appreciated!

The license quotas have already been published, pending adj and confirmation next week.
Follow the steps outlined above and you'll have the quotas going into the NR LO draw. At that point, you're done. Nobody knows how many LO's will apply and/or draw, and the LO draw is intertwined with the special and regular draws so you'll never get the number of licenses available after the LO side but before the Special side.

 

[SDBugler]

To be sure, you do understand there are no landowner tags issued in 56 & 59 or in most NW Wyoming areas?

I never said anything about landowner tags in 56 or 59. I know they are almost 100% public land. In fact I even used unit 55 as an example in my original post as a unit with no LO tags.
My reference to 56 and 59 was simply to show an example were residents don’t actually receive 84% of the tags - nothing more intended than that! No need to over complicate things.

 

[SDBugler]

The license quotas have already been published, pending adj and confirmation next week.
Follow the steps outlined above and you'll have the quotas going into the NR LO draw. At that point, you're done. Nobody knows how many LO's will apply and/or draw, and the LO draw is intertwined with the special and regular draws so you'll never get the number of licenses available after the LO side but before the Special side.

Yes. I have seen the proposed quotas. Some units have proposed changes. In a couple units I’m trying to estimate how many landowner tags will come out based on historical data/averages and estimate how many tags will be available in each sub category. In one particular unit, I’m trying to estimate if there will be a random tag in either the special or regular draws or not.

Yes I know the NR LO will potentially reduce the number available but but estimates can be made from historical LO demand.

 

[BigChiefJ]

Do you know if they follow normal rounding rules for the 84:16 tag distribution?

 

[jm77]

No need to over complicate things.

I was trying to help...

 

[SDBugler]

I was trying to help...

Yes. Thank you.
Sorry if I came across as rude.

 

[Horniac]

If regulation or statute doesn't specify "hunt area" then the quotas are statewide, in this case, it says "total available" not hunt area. This is causing problems with the MSGB, the split language for random/Preference absolutely says "hunt area". Meaning there has to be 4 tags in any HUNT AREA to ever issue a random tag. That is not the case for deer, elk and pronghorn.

I know this thread is regarding elk tag allocations, but looking at the proposed sheep quotas it doesn’t appear there will be a NR random sheep tag this year.

Is this correct, and if so is there any changes in the works for a NR random tag this year?

Horniac

 

[jm77]

There will be no random NR sheep tag if the quotas are approved as proposed. The Dept. would have to speak about any possible changes.

 

[Hunt_the_West]

There will be no random NR sheep tag if the quotas are approved as proposed. The Dept. would have to speak about any possible changes.

I wonder how many people will apply this month not realizing they have absolutely 0 chance with no random tags in the pot. Probably quite a few I’d bet.

 

[Horniac]

I wonder how many people will apply this month not realizing they have absolutely 0 chance with no random tags in the pot. Probably quite a few I’d bet.

$90.43 for the $15 app and convenience fee with zero chance of drawing not to mention fronting the $3,200 tag fee for a month.

Not sure why the department wouldn’t have had a NR random tag in area 5 to at least generate some app fee money but they reduced the proposed NR quota from 4 to 3 while increasing the overall and resident quota. Almost like they did it on purpose .

Hopefully there will be a random tag next year!

Horniac

 

[jm77]

Not sure why the department wouldn’t have had a NR random tag in area 5 to at least generate some app fee money but they reduced the proposed NR quota from 4 to 3 while increasing the overall and resident quota. Almost like they did it on purpose .

I agree with you here, it looks intentional.

Thoughts @ClearCreek ?

 

[BuzzH]

$90.43 for the $15 app and convenience fee with zero chance of drawing not to mention fronting the $3,200 tag fee for a month.

Not sure why the department wouldn’t have had a NR random tag in area 5 to at least generate some app fee money but they reduced the proposed NR quota from 4 to 3 while increasing the overall and resident quota. Almost like they did it on purpose .

Hopefully there will be a random tag next year!

Horniac

I think this change to chapter 44 is going to make it more unlikely that NR's will be issued a random tag. If a NR draws either the trifecta or raffle sheep tag and either choose unit 5, its over for a random tag.

Section 27. Super Tag Licenses and Super Tag Trifecta Licenses. Additions have been made in subsection (e) (ii) and (iii) to require a nonresident applicant winner of a Super Tag License raffle for bighorn sheep, moose, mountain goat or wild bison to purchase their license by March 15 of that year. A similar requirement is provided for any nonresident winner of the Super Tag Trifecta License raffle to select their individual species and purchase their license(s) by March 15 of that year. These new regulations will enable the Department to count these licenses against any nonresident license quotas for the remainder of the year.

 

[BuzzH]

Chapter 44 language change:

(ii) If a nonresident applicant wins a Super Tag License raffle for a bighorn sheep, moose, mountain goat or wild bison, the applicant shall be required to purchase their Super Tag License by March 15 of that year so the license may be counted against the nonresident quota. (iii) If a nonresident applicant wins the Super Tag Trifecta License raffle and chooses to select either a bighorn sheep, moose, mountain goat or wild bison license, the applicant shall be required to select the individual species and purchase their license(s) by March15 of that year so the license(s) may be counted against the nonresident quota.

 

[jm77]

I wonder how many people will apply this month not realizing they have absolutely 0 chance with no random tags in the pot. Probably quite a few I’d bet.

Who's fault is it then that many who apply don't know how the system works? When many residents wanted a first crack at the leftover tags, members of the Task Force and later some in the G&F Dept said residents should know how having three choices works on tag apps.

 

[ClearCreek]

I agree with you here, it looks intentional.

Thoughts @ClearCreek ?

Buzz answered most of the question in his two posts. The other part is now, with the 90-10 split, the "balancing" of license quotas is more challenging so rather than being able to balance licenses at the herd unit or regional level it is done at the statewide level.

ClearCreek

 

[goforbroke]

Thanks for pointing out the sheep. No app for me this year. Now I need to decide if I keep wasting money on moose points.

 

[jm77]

Buzz answered most of the question in his two posts. The other part is now, with the 90-10 split, the "balancing" of license quotas is more challenging so rather than being able to balance licenses at the herd unit or regional level it is done at the statewide level.

ClearCreek

I agree, but before the change to 90/10 allocations were also done at the statewide level.

@goforbroke it doesn't appear there will be a moose random tag for NR either. I wouldn't stop getting points until the question of allocations (50/50?) or bonus points is answered.

 

[Hunt_the_West]

It’s the applicants responsibility, wasn’t my intent to imply otherwise.

 

[SDBugler]

It will be interesting to see how many applicants drop out now knowing they will never have a chance to draw with no random tags available.

I'm so glad I never got started 20 years ago in the sheep draws. Even back then the odds weren't worth the cost of applying.
I don't disagree with the 90/10 split though - just too few tags available to give to NR's

 

[ClearCreek]

I agree, but before the change to 90/10 allocations were also done at the statewide level.

Yup, you are correct. Allocations have always been done on a statewide level.

However, prior to 90/10 the allocations were attempted to be done from a "local" perspective (herd unit first, then regionally second) and if that could not be done, then statewide.

Going to 90/10 has basically taken the local option away so statewide coordination will be required to balance license quotas in the future.

ClearCreek