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Austin
Guest
Who is ready to apply for the best western draw odds sheep hunts (residents) this year?? I know I am, I'm feeling lucky.
destroyer350
Active Member
- Messages
- 485
I also felt lucky the first 20yrs, the last 4 not so much. I guess it's a ritual so I'll be in again!
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wrt
Guest
ofcorse!
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Bullelk1
Guest
I'm in.
wadsworth157
Member
- Messages
- 26
Mtn goat for me this year. Drew sheep in the Frank in 2010. Good luck, all.
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leet
Guest
I'm in!
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Austin
Guest
If you haven't applied yet be sure to check out my draw odds analysis on my site at http://www.aaaoutdoors.com/?page_id=227
sticksender
Very Active Member
- Messages
- 1,022
Austin, you should think about adding a column to your spreadsheet that shows the NR draw odds. You could be the first guy anywhere to publish the true NR odds for Idaho, which are fairly simple to calculate, and average roughly 1:170 for Rockies.
Those are not bad odds as Sheep tags go, but certainly not the best in the west.
Colorado draw odds on average run about 1:150, with many units having far better odds that that. The main difference comparing Colorado to Idaho is that in CO, tags are ALLOCATED (in other words guaranteed) by specific unit to NR's. So a NR can apply for a lower-demand unit and be guaranteed much better draw odds. This is not the case in Idaho's draw, where there's actually no guarantee that NR will draw any Sheep tags whatsoever. Only an "up-to" potential, and no allocation of NR tags by hunt code.
Wyoming and Arizona, with their preference systems both have, in practice, guaranteed Sheep draws for NR. Of course you generally need to have been in on the ground floor in the points game. But even in the random draw portion of their draws, you can find units with better draw odds than Idaho's.
Even New Mexico, with the huge increase in tags this year, will probably have draw odds better than the 1:170 Idaho odds.
All that said, I ended up applying for Mt Goat in Idaho. Actually I'd have probably gone into their sheep draw again, if not for the fact I already have a ram hunt booked for this winter.
Basically though if you're bound and determined to draw a Wild Sheep tag somewhere, I'd say you'd best be applying in Idaho as well as every other state in the west offering such hunts. Basically you gotta just forget the odds, and apply everywhere.
Good luck to all, I hope some of you draw the tag of your dreams.
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Those are not bad odds as Sheep tags go, but certainly not the best in the west.
Colorado draw odds on average run about 1:150, with many units having far better odds that that. The main difference comparing Colorado to Idaho is that in CO, tags are ALLOCATED (in other words guaranteed) by specific unit to NR's. So a NR can apply for a lower-demand unit and be guaranteed much better draw odds. This is not the case in Idaho's draw, where there's actually no guarantee that NR will draw any Sheep tags whatsoever. Only an "up-to" potential, and no allocation of NR tags by hunt code.
Wyoming and Arizona, with their preference systems both have, in practice, guaranteed Sheep draws for NR. Of course you generally need to have been in on the ground floor in the points game. But even in the random draw portion of their draws, you can find units with better draw odds than Idaho's.
Even New Mexico, with the huge increase in tags this year, will probably have draw odds better than the 1:170 Idaho odds.
All that said, I ended up applying for Mt Goat in Idaho. Actually I'd have probably gone into their sheep draw again, if not for the fact I already have a ram hunt booked for this winter.
Basically though if you're bound and determined to draw a Wild Sheep tag somewhere, I'd say you'd best be applying in Idaho as well as every other state in the west offering such hunts. Basically you gotta just forget the odds, and apply everywhere.
Good luck to all, I hope some of you draw the tag of your dreams.
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Austin
Guest
sticksender,
I appreciate your post. I updated my odd analysis. It's interesting that now even HF says they are posting true draw odds. Idaho must be paying them a lot to advertise for them, because at first glance it seems that there is great Non-Res draw odds, but fail to explain the draw system completely.
Please view my new analysis sheet and let me know what you think.
http://www.aaaoutdoors.com/IdahoSheepDrawAnalysis.pdf
I appreciate your post. I updated my odd analysis. It's interesting that now even HF says they are posting true draw odds. Idaho must be paying them a lot to advertise for them, because at first glance it seems that there is great Non-Res draw odds, but fail to explain the draw system completely.
Please view my new analysis sheet and let me know what you think.
http://www.aaaoutdoors.com/IdahoSheepDrawAnalysis.pdf
sticksender
Very Active Member
- Messages
- 1,022
Yep and when I look at the Sheep draw odds, it sure makes me wish I was a Idaho resident. Surprising that there are only 600 or so Idaho residents who elect to go for Sheep tags each year. Great set-up though, where those opting for the OIL species can only apply for one. It helps the draw chances tremendously.
And I agree about the HF numbers for NR...they don't reflect reality. Still a great state to apply in for anyone needing a bighorn sheep.
And I agree about the HF numbers for NR...they don't reflect reality. Still a great state to apply in for anyone needing a bighorn sheep.
BPKHunter
Very Active Member
- Messages
- 1,794
LAST EDITED ON May-09-12 AT 05:06PM (MST)[p]Stick to hunts with low tag numbers and the odds are much better. Actually in hunts with only one tag the opportunity is identical between Res and NR. Also the numbers are scewed by the large number of NR putting in for a few very popular units like 11 and 27L. Take those out and your draw odds go up to near 1%. Wow, sounds like a banker trying to sell CD rates these days... pretty low anyway you look at it.
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Austin
Guest
All residents and nonresidents are essentially competing equally against eachother until the NonRes quota of "5" has been met. So really as a NonRes you are competing to be in the top 5 chosen. For example, once the popular unit 11 ram tag (quota: 1) gets taken by someone, then the other 200 NonRes applicants that applied for that hunt are thrown out.
Then it is resident vs. resident for the rest of the draw.
It's extremely hard and nearly impossible to determine when and on which hunt number the non-resident quota will be met. Because technically the first 5 non-residents selected could receive their first choice (as long as they didn't choose identical hunt numbers) and as long as a resident was not ahead of them in the sequence.
That's the way I visualize it in my mind. Kind of depressing, and it probably doesnt make sense.
Then it is resident vs. resident for the rest of the draw.
It's extremely hard and nearly impossible to determine when and on which hunt number the non-resident quota will be met. Because technically the first 5 non-residents selected could receive their first choice (as long as they didn't choose identical hunt numbers) and as long as a resident was not ahead of them in the sequence.
That's the way I visualize it in my mind. Kind of depressing, and it probably doesnt make sense.
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Austin
Guest
The "up to 10% non resident quota" applies to both the individual hunt numbers and the entire species pool together. No more than 1 non-resident can draw a sheep hunt number, if there are fewer than 11 tags available. So in a sense, once a non-resident gets a tag for a hunt, all the future applicants that had that listed as their first choice, are out.
You can think of the draw as a hunt # by hunt # draw. It's easier to think of it as one giant pool of residents and non-residents. They are pulled out one by one and their first choice is looked at. They are awarded their first choice if the permit quota has not been met OR the non-resident quota has not been met.
Does that make any sense?
You can think of the draw as a hunt # by hunt # draw. It's easier to think of it as one giant pool of residents and non-residents. They are pulled out one by one and their first choice is looked at. They are awarded their first choice if the permit quota has not been met OR the non-resident quota has not been met.
Does that make any sense?
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