Hello, I'm a regional wildlife manager for IDFG. Good discussion about some of the pros and cons on potential changes to Idaho's drawing system.
I can't help but try to address some misperceptions and offer some explanations.
First, there are several "truths" that can't be changed.
1. You can't improve one person's chances in any draw system without decreasing chances for someone else.
2. Given a constant number of tags and applicants, the same number of people are unsuccessful every year. (100 applicants for 10 tags = 90 people don't draw).
3. Implementing a new system requires more computer programming and bookkeeping, so it will cost more money.
4. When demand if high enough, there is no way anyone can be guaranteed to draw a tag under any system.
One part of the current survey about "purchasing points" can be misconstrued. The question is really whether someone should be able to apply for a "ghost" hunt number. That is, submit a standard application fee and acquire a single point without actually applying for a hunt. The question was not meant to imply someone could just "buy" multiple points or more chances in the draw (such as Maine allows for moose). The logic behind allowing someone to apply for a single point is to give the hunter the ability to stay current in the point system when they know they won't be able to hunt that year (ever have a daughter set her wedding date right in the middle of hunt it just took you 10 years to draw?) or if they might draw more tags than they can effectively use. If people can't apply for a ghost number, some will pick out and apply for the hardest to draw tags, actually hoping they don't get it, so they can gain a point, and the result is even worse odds for high demand hunts.
There seems to be confusion about what different systems mean. Both systems can include set-asides for maximum point holders. Arizona currently sets 20% of tags aside for maximum BONUS point holders and the rest go into a standard bonus point draw among all applicants. In Oregon, 75% of tags are allocated to maximum PREFERENCE point holders and the remaining 25% go in to a completely random draw among all applicants. Those set-asides can be modified as much as hunters want to adjust advantage among applicants, but any way you slice it new hunters or those who drew the previous year (points reset to zero) go to "the back of the line" and will have reduced chances. The primary difference between bonus and preference point systems is predictability - it is easier to predict when you will be assured of drawing in a preference system. In a bonus system, you can still calculate your chances, but a very "unlucky" person may still never draw a tag. It is true that a strict preference point system (e.g, Colorado) severely penalizes anyone who enters the system after the start-up - many will never catch up for premium hunts.
An opinion - wait periods are not very effective at improving draw odds (but may keep them from getting worse). Why? Because the pool of applicants always seems to refill with new people. The best example is Idaho's moose hunts: bull moose tags are once in a lifetime if you harvest. Idaho has offered about 1,000 bull moose tags each year for the last 5 years and we have a harvest success rate of about 80%. So 800 people are permanently removed from the applicant pool every year. Starting with 5,000 applicants 5 years ago, there "should be" only 1,000 people left applying for moose. But the actual applicant pool has been very near 5,000 people EVERY YEAR for the last 5 years. Every year 800 "new" people apply for moose in Idaho, so the "ultimate" wait period does not improve odds (but it probably keeps them from getting worse).
Lastly, I hope all those giving opinions on this site will make those opinions known to the IDFG Commission through the on-line survey or a hard copy available at our offices. Each IDFG region has been asked to conduct a public meeting on the issue - check with you local office for details. The meeting in Salmon will October 5 at the regional office.
Sorry to be so long-winded, but it is a complex issue and I have only scratched the surface.