Last year, you possibly could have drawn a 12AW or the 12B tag with 19 points. With the good moisture this year, I expect more guys will apply for a hunt instead of buy a point, so probably some point creep. You stand a decent chance at drawing in the next 2 years unless there is a change is application patterns. Nothing is ever guaranteed when you apply for a hunt with 1-5 tags.
"You can fly a helicopter to the top of Everest and say you've been there. The problem with that is you were an a$$hole when you started and you're still an a$$hole when you get back.
Its the climb that makes you a different person". - Yvon Chouinard