LAST EDITED ON Oct-08-14 AT 12:48PM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Oct-08-14 AT 12:28?PM (MST)
Even when the odds change on you, you have to stick with areas you know until you find them truly shot. The bottom line is you have time in your areas. You have experience with what the elk do, where they go, how to get there, etc. Yeah, you might see a few hunters there next year, but odds are it might be their first time in there and you will be a huge step up on them.
Our 3rd choice unit is one that isn't a great unit, especially trophy wise. However, we know how to hunt it and always do well. Numbers change, but the basic topography and elk don't much. If I knew 16b, I'd stick with it at least for my 1st and 2nd choice (if you know the area, first hunt can be fantastic. They may not scream as much, but they are more susceptible to cow calls and sitting on water) and then do a flier on a 3rd choice.
I imagine you know this, but the way the system works is that when your app is drawn they go through all three choices before they move to next app. If you have a unit like 16b that you know, no matter how bad the odds appear to get (you never know for sure what your actual odds were until the new odds are posted months after the draw) you should still use it for your first two choices because wouldn't you kick yourself if you found out later your app was the very first one pulled and you put in for a second tier hunt as your first choice.
BTW, wouldn't it be great if on your draw results page they gave you the number of your drawn application. I.e. your app was the 4579th drawn.