Nonresident Draw Odds - HF

Zim

Zim

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LAST EDITED ON Jan-10-11 AT 12:26PM (MST)[p]After looking at the draw odds in the January Huntin Fool, there are very few hunts where all of the allotted NR tags don't go to the applicants with the max number of bonus points. It looks like basically every quality hunt, for all species, with all weapons, has become a max point draw. I am not even close with 14 lope points, 12 deer & 8 elk.

Initially HF had only thought the rule change would affect the NR deer hunts and early firearm elk hunts, but that is clearly NOT the case. This is affecting a lot more of the hunts, basically every one I've been applying for in the last 15 years.

The game totally morphed when they made that rule change a few years ago. This is really puzzling when other states are doing the exact opposite when they see far fewer new applicants sending them their money. Wyoming has a proposal to shift the random draw permits for moose from 75% preference/25% random to 50/50 in an effort to attract more money donors. Of course I have about max points there and would be screwed in both states. What else is new?

I am wondering if it makes sense to just drop AZ and forfeit my points (like I did with WY sheep) or continue applying with zero draw chance until I am 80 years old and enough ahead of me die first.

I have to believe once AZF&G sees their new applicants completely dry up, it will encourage them to change the rules again some day.
 
Unfortunatly thats what I get from last years results. Any high quality area a Non-Res isn't able to hunt before the late hunts. The new 20% pass uses up the 10% non-res quota so unless you are looking @ an undesired area, which they put too many tags out for the last 4 years you can't even bow hunt early. Until they do away with that system there is not much chance in the next 20 years unless your holding 16 lope points or 12 elk points there is just too much of a log jam at the top.
 
Zim,

I feel your pain. I used to have max points for deer in AZ until the Hunters Ed point was initiated. Now if I want to have a chance to draw a premium unit, I need to fly to Kingman in January (except the course is full) or April (I hear there will be a second course in April 2011); this will cost me an additional $1K. Quite an unfair advantage for those living in UT, CO, NV, or CA who can jump in their car and drive to the course. Hay Don Martin, if tyou read this, any chance to lure you to the east coast to teach the course?? I'm in a similar situation in Wyoming concerning sheep, I have 2 points less than max and the tag and guide fees are increasing faster than my wages. I hate when the rules (Hunter Ed point) change in the middle of the game. I've bought my hunting license in AZ for 12 years in a row now and have never set foot in the state; I guess that's not good enough.
 
Two of us flew from Oregon, one guy came from New Hampshire. We looked at the pluses and minuses and decided the cost was worth it. I believe they initiated the hunter ed point to create separation in the point pools, knowing some would not do it.

Zim, as I mentioned in one of the forums you posted on, you can draw mid tier units right now. You're out of the game for a top end unit. That's just how it is.
I'm in the same boat.
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-10-11 AT 03:30PM (MST)[p]How does this affect a non-res that just started applying? Is there a chance at a mid tier archery unit in 6-7yrs if he gets the loyalty point as well as the hunter ed point?

Thanks
 
Hard to say but my guess would be not likely.

You have hundreds ahead of you that also get a loyalty point. 10% max per year distribution and an "unknown" number of NR applicants in each hunt code make it impossible to determine exactly how many years behind a person is, provided all point pools above you remain the same.
One could assume that the higher the max pool rises, the greater the NR portion should be, eventually getting to a max pool(s) of 100% NR applicants.
 
WB,

"Zim, as I mentioned in one of the forums you posted on, you can draw mid tier units right now. You're out of the game for a top end unit. That's just how it is.
I'm in the same boat."

Ya I guess I just did not realize the extent of the damage done by this rule. I knew my deer odds were shot, but did not know this was across the board for all species until now. Sure glad I drew a unit 1 elk tag before this was implemented. At least I feel like I am giving back by mailing my license fee each year! :) Because I have nothing to look forward to now.

If I were a new applicant I would not even consider applying in Arizona......no way!
 
"I am not even close with 14 lope points, 12 deer & 8 elk."

You're only fooling yourself if you believe that. There are plenty of hunts that can be drawn with those points, that produce the same quality as the "better" units. Antelope may be the only really tough one to get. If you believe you will never draw then quit.

If you do a little research and don't get fooled into believing there are only a select few units to get trophies, you can hunt here several times in your life. I know NR's who draw archery elk every few years.

The draw odds sites are only a tool. I wouldn't necessarily base every decision on those odds reports.

Just my opinion.
 
What you need to look at is the percentage of nonresidents at or above whatever the 20% pass point is. If it's around half or more nonresident, the 10% nonresident cap will likely fill and leave few or no nonresident tags to the bonus point round. The 20% cap point level varies by hunt, so rifle strip deer is the only one you need max for as a nonresident, but nonresidents do need to be at the 20% pass point level for most of the desireable hunts. Sheep and lope are heavy resident near the top, so everyone has a slim shot at those...

Seems like more nonresidents move into the top deer pool by taking the course than move out by drawing every year, so you absolutely need the ed point if you are max minus the ed point and want a shot a strip deer tag before you die.
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-10-11 AT 11:03PM (MST)[p]I have to say in my opinion this 20% rule makes AZ the state that makes it the most difficult for the typical Joe hunter to understand and strategize a long term plan.

Can someone define for me a "mid-tier hunt" as far as archery elk goes? I have the latest HF for reference. I will try to figure this out, but they don't tell you which hunts fell into this 20% cap category. Can you tell me at 8 points what archery elk hunts are within reach now or in the next 5/10 years?

Same for any deer hunt?

Is an archery pronghorn hunt reachable or worth the points?

I now know applying for sheep is completely worthless for me now unless the rules are changed.

Thanks for any advice.
 
As far as archery elk, stay away from the units mentioned in all the magazines. Every unit in AZ has big bulls. Some of the "best" units are overrated.

Have you looked into any of the ML antelope hunts? What does the max pass look like for those?

I don't believe sheep is included in the 20% pass so that shouldn't be an issue. I may be wrong though.
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-10-11 AT 09:09PM (MST)[p]
What makes it difficult is the fact that the game dept doesn't list the res/non res applicants on a per hunt, per point basis.

draw odds listed in the mags and on web sites are nothing more than a guess because they don't have the res/non res breakdown.

If you pull up the bonus pass report you can see what units you should draw.
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-11-11 AT 01:49AM (MST)[p]I had decided I would no longer post in this section but...

There seems to be lots of confusion and misinformation included in this thread.

Some key points:

**the 20% BP round includes ALL hunters -- residents and NR alike -- together from those with the highest point total to the lowest, excluding those with 0 BPs. It is NOT done by hunt #. It starts with the application with the lowest draw number with max points and goes down the entire list of applicants for that species by each group in order of those with the next highest point total. This list includes ALL weapon types for that species.

**except for sheep & buffalo, the allocation of the 20% of the permits IS by hunt #, which are meted out as each application is looked at in the above process. Both first & second choices are considered. The 20% is from the total permits for sheep & buffalo.

So it's possible for permits to remain for any particular hunt long into the list; it all depends on what hunts are on the earlier applications with lower numbers in each BP group. Once the 20% of the permits in any given hunt # are gone, remaining permits for that hunt # are doled out in the 1-2 draw, which anyone regardless of points can draw.

**the 10% NR cap is also by hunt #


Perhaps reading the following will help clarify:

http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/BigGameDrawingProcess.shtml


TONY MANDILE
48e63dfa482a34a9.jpg

How To Hunt Coues Deer
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-11-11 AT 01:28AM (MST)[p]I wonder what Einstein was responsible for concocting such a bizarre formula for confusion. I can think of about 1.000 options that would be just as fair that everyone could actually understand. Absolutely rediculous.
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-11-11 AT 07:01AM (MST)[p]If the intent is that 20% of the tags go to the top pool...and that no more than 10% per hunt # for deer, elk and antelope, per species sheep...

Why not then make a 2% nonresident cap apply to the 20% max points round per hunt #/species as stated?

It would distribute tags more along the intent....and keep 90% of the tags availible in either pass resident...I wrote and suggested that as soon as they made the change to 20% top pool.

Or at least make a 5% nonresident cap apply to the 20% round so it is as it was before they went to the 20% max points tags from 10%...Can you imagine what all other than the top deer pool felt aftter they made that change? Investing all that money and time, only to have the rug pulled from under them?

BTW, I am in the top deer pool, everyone there went in with the expectation of half the nonresident quota going to their pool, not all...
 
Zim..You can have fun hunting elk or antelope with 8 points. Look at the hunt odds here, plug in 8 points and search without selection hunt and weapon. Scrool to your weapon choice. The blue line and 100% draw are the key to the pass level...It might be a point more for a nonresident due to the 10% cap, but is close...
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-11-11 AT 09:05AM (MST)[p]>>If the intent is that 20% of the tags go to the top pool...and that no more than 10% per hunt # for deer, elk and antelope, per species sheep...
<<

The 20% pass round does NOT necessarily include only those with max points! It includes EVERYONE with BPs, and the round goes on until ALL of the 20% permits per HUNT # are gone.

A simple example using small numbers:

Let's say there are 300 applicants for a species for all weapons types but only 30 have max points. The computer issues numbers to each application by the number of points.

During the 20% pass, the lowest to highest number order of all the apps is not a factor. Instead, it is the order within each BP group. So even though someone in the max pool gets a number that is higher than someone in the next lower tier of total BPs, the one with the most points will get first shot at a permit.

So now we have the first selection for the 30 in the max pool. They start with the lowest number among that group and look at both the first and second choices. Obviously, this person will get first choice since all permits remain. It could be a rifle, muzzleloader or archery hunt.

BUT..as the they go down the list, the 20% allocation for certain hunt #s will begin to diminish until none remain. So anyone after that who has hunt #s as first choice for those already filled will have their 2nd choice looked at. If that hunt # still has a permit, they get it. If the second choice is also gone, that app goes to the 1-2 pass.

This is all done without consideration of who is a resident or a nonresident or the type of weapon when grouping the various BP pools in regards to the totals. But if the NR 10% quota is reached in a particular hunt early on, the next NR won't get a permit for that hunt; if he has a second choice that still has a NR permit left below the 10% quota, he would get that permit. Again, the 10% NR cap is PER HUNT, not the total permits.

So...once those 30 max apps are looked at for both first and second choice, those who didn't draw are relegated into the 1-2 pass and reissued a new number.

If permits still remain for hunts under the 20% pass, they then look at the next highest BP pool, again using the order of the lowest to highest number assigned. They then go to the next group with the highest total. This continues until ALL permits under the 20% pass are doled out! Late in the process, they might look at many apps where all the 20% permits are already gone until they come to one where a hunt # choice is still available.

So..depending on the actual hunts everyone applied for in the higher BP pools, it's possible for anyone in a lower pool, either resident or NR, to draw if the first and second choices on earlier apps were minimal for a particular hunt #.

TONY MANDILE
48e63dfa482a34a9.jpg

How To Hunt Coues Deer
 
bomber,
You need to find a way to take that course. You have wasted 12 years and thousands of dollars if you don't. Another $1000 to take the course is small compared to the life investment you've already made. Plan a small vacation, spend some skymiles, do something.

I live in Idaho on a single income with three great kids and wife and took the course and I'm not even a Max point holder.
Had to fly like you would, but it was worth it to invest in my hunting future and Don teaches a great course.

Odds are worsening even for the Max point holders, if you wait another few years, then you've wasted your opportunity.

Just my two bits.

The Christian
 
I have never had even close to max points, but I have drawn 3 good tags in AZ in about 10 years as a NR.

I drew a late bull hunt in one of the better elk units in the state with 8 points, 2 late coues tags in great units with about 3-4 points each time.

I know a few NR's who have drawn sheep permits without max points as well. Also know a few that have drawn antelope permits without max points as well.

Unless you're applying for the early rifle elk hunts or the Kaibab/Strip for deer...I'd ignore the odds and apply.
 
Bomber I'm willing to chip in to fly Don to the east coast to teach the course. I bet we could make him alot of money that way and save ourselves a few bucks and vacation time and get the hunter ed point. I'm in!
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-11-11 AT 12:20PM (MST)[p]

Zim, it's not that hard to understand. They look at the 1st app and see if his choices are available then go to the next guy, on and on. Game and Fish makes it should like the 20% is a separate draw but it's not. It's one big draw that includes everybody. However, they do sort by points then go thru the list filling hunts. Once a hunt has reached the 20%, it's closed.

20% of the tags go to the max pool guys for any given hunt #, regardless of how many points that is AND no more than 10% of the tags for that hunt number can go to a NR.

So, for any given hunt #, if they hit the 10% NR limit before they fill the 20% pass, you're not getting a tag.

If they fill the 20% pass and have NOT hit the 10% NR limit, you and everybody else in that hunt # has a chance. They shuffle the numbers and start over and if you get a low number and they pick you before they hit the 10%, bingo.
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-11-11 AT 01:05PM (MST)[p]>>Game and Fish makes it should like the 20% is a separate draw but it's not.<<

Yes, it is a separate draw, and no one with 0 BPs takes part in the 20% pass. There are three draws -- the 20% pass, the 1-2 choices and the 2-3-4 choices. For each one, everyone starts from scratch with new numbers issued according to BPs averages.

>>20% of the tags go to the max pool guys for any given hunt #,<<

Not necessarily the case. 20% of the tags are given out during that phase but apps with fewer than max will also get them. It depends on what hunts #s all the max BP apps picked and what is left after their first and second choices are looked at.

Lest we forget, EVERY hunt has 20% of the permits set aside to be doled out in this phase. Obviously the 20% of the permits for less desireable hunt #s will go much lower into the lower BP pools right on down to those who have only one or two points if permits still remain of the 20% set aside.

TONY MANDILE
48e63dfa482a34a9.jpg

How To Hunt Coues Deer
 
The only way a guy with fewer points will get a tag in the 20% pool is if they fill the 10% nr limit.
Also, nobody in the draw has zero points, a first timer gets one for the current draw.i
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-11-11 AT 06:59PM (MST)[p]>>The only way a guy with fewer points will get a tag in the 20% pool is if they fill the 10% nr limit.<<

I have no idea what you're talking about. Do you?

Hundreds of hunters, including NRs, get permits in the
bonus pass every year with fewer than max points.


>>Also, nobody in the draw has zero points, a first timer gets one for the current draw.<<

That isn't a BP. They get a number assigned for THAT app. BPs are listed by the applicant's department ID or SSN. Someone who has never applied has no BP listed, thus they start with 0 with a first application for a particular species. A BP results for an unsuccessful draw, a HE course or as a loyalty point after five years of applying for the same species.

It appears as if the AGFD agrees with me:

"In the Bonus Pass, the first and second hunt choices for all applications with maximum bonus points are looked at first. If permits are still available from the 20% allocation, then the next lower bonus point category is looked at; and so on, until all of the 20% allocation is issued or until all applications with 1 or more bonus points are read. Applications with zero bonus points will not be included in the 20% Bonus Pass of the Draw."


TONY MANDILE
48e63dfa482a34a9.jpg

How To Hunt Coues Deer
 
Max points will differ for each hunt. Just because max points is 16 or 17 or whatever it is does not mean that is max points for every hunt. The hunter who applies for that hunt with the most points sets max points for that hunt.
 
Tony,

Thank you for your patient research and examples from the AZGFD Rules & Regulations. I read these forums and have to chuckle at some of the "myths" that pop-up now and again about the AZ draw process. For those of you still following this thread, Tony's posts are completely correct. Period.

For those of you who do not have what you feel is enough BPs to get a good tag, follow the advise of other posters here who suggest a "mid-level unit" strategy for your 2011 application. I don't think anyone is going to actually post the unit numbers of what may be considered a "mid-level unit", specifically because they can be drawn with some degree of regularity and we all have hunting buddies that might want to duke it out with us if we disclose that info in an internet forum! Also, one man's "mid-level unit" is another man's Valhalla Hunting Grounds so specific unit numbers shall remain unlisted.

Read the AZ Antelope & Elk Hunt Regs/App booklet, take your time and look at the maps and use your research to determine where the biggest concentrations of elk in the State are and then apply for a permit in one of those or surrounding units. When you draw, use your hunting skills to find a bull you're happy with and go kill it!

As others have posted, the units in all the magazines, 1-3, 8-10, 27, etc. are not the only places that grow mature bull elk.

As for Mr. Martin being flown to another state to teach AZ Hunter ED, it ain't gonna happen as the Dept would never go for it! If they did, he'd be bringing me along :)!

Good luck to all you all in the 2011 drawings!

Jim
 
Zim,
I know you do the research and you know that you can draw an archery tag in some of the 3, 4 ,5, 6 units. Are you hung up on having a 1, 9, 10 tag? If so you could be waiting awhile. :/
 
>Zim,
>I know you do the research
>and you know that you
>can draw an archery tag
>in some of the 3,
>4 ,5, 6 units. Are
>you hung up on having
>a 1, 9, 10 tag?
>If so you could be
>waiting awhile. :/

We hunted unit 1 in 2002 and had been saving for a return visit. Since they changed to the 20% rule we have been trying to figure out if it was now out of reach. As I mentioned, as far as we knew only the early rifle hunts would be affected. Now we realize that is not the case. So with that confirmed we are discussing the options. I am not hung up on anywhere. Just trying to understand the system and strategize the best use of our points.

I understand we must pick a unit that can mathematically be drawn. But I still don't know what our chances of being selected are in any specific unit. Personally, I believe the whole system was devised to purposely make it difficult to know one's chances. If many knew, they would not bother to apply, nor send money. Same as the previous system.

I am looking at the 3, 4, 5 & 6 units now. But stll don't know real chance of drawing, and probably never will.

I would not be surprised if AZF&W hired Don Peay as a consultant in devising this draw system. Right up his alley as far as transparency goes.
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-12-11 AT 02:31AM (MST)[p] "For those of you still following this thread, Tony's posts are completely correct. Period."

There is absolutely no way a resident applying to unit 1 archery with 5 points, will draw a tag in the 20% pass, ahead of a resident applying for the same hunt, that has 10 points. The same is true for a non resident.

"In the Bonus Pass, the first and second hunt choices for all applications with maximum bonus points are looked at first. If permits are still available from the 20% allocation, then the next lower bonus point category is looked at; and so on, until all of the 20% allocation is issued or until all applications with 1 or more bonus points are read..."
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-12-11 AT 04:25AM (MST)[p]>>There is absolutely no way a resident applying to unit 1 archery with 5 points, will draw a tag in the 20% pass, ahead of a resident applying for the same hunt, that has 10 points. The same is true for a non resident.<<

And I never said such and neither did the AGFD in the quoted paragraph.

Read the words in bold type slowly.

"If permits are still available from the 20% allocation,
then the next lower bonus point category is looked at; and so on, until all of the 20% allocation is issued or until all applications with 1 or more bonus points are read..."

Now, I'll also type this slowly:

Once again, as are all the draws, the 20% pass is NOT DONE by HUNT #, BUT BY SPECIES. As such, the 20% pass includes ALL SEASONS AND WEAPON TYPES IN A SINGLE DRAW, which for a species like deer and elk means there are hundreds of permits available in the 20% pass and a lot of them are in hunt #s that aren't the Strip or North Kaibab for deer or Unit 1 or 9 for elk. And also once again...the 20% pass includes EVERYONE with bonus points who applied for a species, regardless of weapon type or hunt #.

And once again, ALL of the 20% pass permits WILL BE DOLED OUT unless there are no more apps with a specific hunt # listed for those that remain. Thus, someone with ONE lowly point will get a permit in the 20% pass if his 1st or 2nd choice is less desireable hunt# and there are permits left of the 20% allocation for either hunt #.

In fact, it sometimes happens where someone gets a permit for his 2nd choice deer even though permits are leftover for his 1st choice after all THREE draws are done. Why? Because during the 20% pass, all the permits (the 20% allocated for his 1st choice)were gone by the time his app came up, but there were permits remaining for his 2nd choice.


TONY MANDILE
48e63dfa482a34a9.jpg

How To Hunt Coues Deer
 
Zim, unit 1 archery... 12 bps and up have been 100% draw the last 4 years with 11 being in the 20% pass, vying for the last couple of tags... So you have 4 years for a guaranteed tag.

2 years ago some of us had a thread about point creep and I put up numbers from unit 1 archery as my example, it went a hundred posts or so arguing point creep and I claim there isn't any. The last 4 years have proven there isn't.

Most of the archery lope tags will be available with 12 bps.

http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/BonusPointProcess.shtml

Kent
 
"2 years ago some of us had a thread about point creep and I put up numbers from unit 1 archery as my example, it went a hundred posts or so arguing point creep and I claim there isn't any. The last 4 years have proven there isn't."

I don't see how this is possible. I wish AZF&G would just publish the stats like every other state does. What is so hard about that? So theoretially we would be guaranteed unit 1 tags in 4 more years? Just doesn't sound right.
 
There are 416 applicants for unit 1 archery, 1st and 2nd choice, with 9 or more points going into the 2011 draw(based on 2010 numbers). Without knowing the breakdown of the res -vs- non res applicant, you have no way to know how long it will take to draw that hunt. You can add another 206 applicants with 8 points.
With approx. 24 tags this year for the 10% NR cap, it's going to be more than a 4 year wait.
You could also assume because of the 90/10 allocation, that the higher the max point pool goes for a given hunt, the heavier weighted it becomes to the NR.
 
I wish they would break down the Res Non-Res apps it would make things so much easier.I hunted unit 1 Archery last year and there was a Resident in our camp that drew with 1 point, now thats one lucky SOB.

So i'm back to 2 points and in for a long wait although i will not wait for the "Best" units this time around.
 
Next Question

I went through the MM Hunt Draw Odds stats and it gives the impression that wih 8 points I am about guaranteed a tag in most of the 3, 4, 5, 6 archery elk hunts. It has yellow boxes labeled "bonus" whatever that means. Can someone tell me if I am interpretting this correct?

Going by these numbers (which I don't trust) it is for all practical purposes a preference point system. Can I really count on drawing if my points are higher than these other applicants?
 
>There is never a guaranteed tag.


I went through the MM Hunt Draw Odds stats and it gives the impression that wih 8 points I am extremely likely to draw a tag in most of the 3, 4, 5, 6 archery elk hunts. It has yellow boxes labeled "bonus" whatever that means. Can someone tell me if I am interpretting this correct?

Going by these numbers (which I don't trust) it is for all practical purposes a preference point system. Can I really count on drawing if my points are higher than these other applicants?
 
Hey JIM or bucksnort I,m sure we can round up enough guys willing to put up the cash to fly YOU and Don 1st class just let me know when. With a great hotel and money in your pockets when you leave.
 
http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/docu...lk-BonusPointReport-BonusPassbyHuntNumber.pdf

Look under hunt #3015... 20 people with 12bps... 20 successful, 100%... doesn't matter if you were R or NR... It's been the same for 4 years, well 6 that I know of myself... but 4 that were documented.

It's easy math if you follow it for consecutive years... it's a fact for the last 4+.

It might drop to 11 after this year or the next... without radical change in the draw process or everyone switching to unit 1, it will continue the trend.

You will not be in the 20% pass for 3C early archery with 8 points.

I'm not going through all the math again I did 2 years ago... dig that thread up, it still relates...

Kent
 
I don't think it's hunt #3015. There aren't even any point holders over 10 for that hunt. Do the hunt numbers stay the same each year? Archery unit 1 is hunt #3129 this year.

Looks like we may be close for unit 8 archery elk. Otherwise I started researching some of these units like 6A.
 
If you watch the hunt you are invested in and your BP group, it's not difficult to project your draw year... + or - 1.

Looking at the 8 BP group... this year there are 1193 for elk... last year there was 1338 with 8 bps and 442 drew leaving 896 with 9 for this year.

BP creep is going down.

Kent
 
my mistake 3115 was the hunt and the numbers from last year... not 3015, forgot the first 1.

Kent
 
Zim, the following are some of the archery hunts that had nr tags after the bonus point pass:

3b, 4a, 4b, 5a, 5bn, 5bs, 6an, 6as, 6aw, 6b, and 7e. Some only had one go thru, some had several. So, even if you aren't in the max pool you have a shot.
 
Wanna hear a news flash? There is a guaranteed tag or two out there! All you need be is in the top two tiers of the elk bonus point pool and you can pick virtually any tag you want!

But two decades is a long time to wait to get to that point. Do your homework and apply accordingly.

I generally wouldn't apply for the early rifle bull tags if you have 0-16 bonus points, as a non-resident. It is a little different for most early (except unit 9) muzzleloader hunts. I've seen a few NR's get in with 13-14 points on those.

Archery elk hunters got it better, many NR draw with 13-14 points.

Again, got to look at the stats, and do a little homework. But eventually you'll figure out what you MAY draw, based upon your bonus points.

These are my personal opinions only...

Don Martin
AWO
 
Another angle you must read into the same numbers... 3115

12 bps... 12 1st choice... 8 second ch... 20 total... 20 drawn 100%

1. either exactly 15 NRs drew in the 20% round or there were some available in the 80% round... All NRs received a tag with 12 bps or higher.

2. Doug (RR) is correct in saying, if your #2 choice puts you in a 20% pass draw at 100%, you will not have a chance for your #1 choice in the 80% round. Means if you put a unit 1 choice as first and a 4B unit as second with 8 bps, you will get the 4B tag before they would draw the 80% round.

the 8 second choices above put in for units they didn't have enough points to get into the 20% draw, yet were enough with the 2nd choice to get in that 20% draw... never reaching the 80% draw to be considered for their first choice.

This relates to all hunts

Kent
 
There were no tags left after the 20% pass for 3115 last year. 10 nr drew it as their 1st choice and 5 drew it as their 2nd. Those 15 hit the 10% nr cap and no more nr tags were available.
 
Am I correct in that we are one point low to have a chance at unit 8? I ask because if so maybe it's worth me going out there to do the hunter's ed class for the permanent BP then go for 8 next year.

Also, What I cannot figure out is the NR odds because it looks like all these stats are for both R & NR. Looks like the only thing a NR can do is pick a unit where there is a chance to draw but that's all. No way to know true odds.
 
Zim, you are correct. That's why my wife and I spent the weekend in Kingman. I now have 9 points, but even at that it's a 50/50 shot without knowing the res/nr distribution in the upper point pools.
 
I totally do not believe anyone that says if you are a NR with max points you will get drawn. I just do not trust this AZ tag distribution system. I still think the whole sytem is based on AZF&G not wanting to disclose NR's true draw odds in an effort to keep the money flowing.

I also totally don't believe the draw odds shown on the MM Draw Odds link for NR's. Those figures are a bunch of bunk because if the information for calculating the odds is not made available by the state, how could they calculate such things? No way. This is being very misleading.

It's all about disclosure.
 
I just proved if you had 12 bps or more in 2010 and put in for unit 1 archery, you were guaranteed a tag. I also have tracked the results for the last few years and this is a proven trend. You can get the NR numbers from G&F for any unit and figure your own trends.

I'm not going to break down every unit you have a fancy for, I've shown what will happen for your desired unit 1, get a HE BP and get a tag in 3 yrs, 4 max. The BP creep for 8 and under is going down, more to your advantage.

Believe or disbelieve, doesn't change the numbers. I guess you didn't want factual help on draw odds, just gripe about Az G&F.

Kent
 
I have an idea if all the nonresidents want to complain about throwing their money away in the az draw, don't apply then! I havn't been drawn for an elk tag in ten years as a resident. I don't complain about your states, I just play by their rules. Also, most nonresidents have never stepped foot in the units they apply for (1,9,10) I bet if their took a trip to 4a,5a, or 5b they would be putting in for that unit the next year
 
Save your breath this guy has been complaining about the draw odds here for years. He knows exactly how the system works. When you have NR with 4 bonus points drawing a early rifle hunt in unit 1 it shows that you don't need max points to get drawn for every hunt. There are many tags issued each year to NR w/o max points. Guys (NR) on here have had a couple of tags in AZ in the last 5 years for bulls so that in itself proves there must be a flaw in your "only max points will draw theory". We told you this years ago and you claimed we didn't understand what it would do well here we are and they're still getting drawn w/o max points not for all hunts but for many. Zim still crying wolf after all these years.........
 
Zim,

Why even ask a question if all you're going to do is argue?

Here...argue with this. AZ Nonresident bull tag I drew in 2008 with 8 total points (6 for unsuccessful apps. plus H.E. point and loyalty point).

Too bad it wasnt an early rifle rut tag...I had to do a little scouting/hunting but found a raghorn:

AZ_Elk%20056.jpg


Last deer tag I drew in AZ, 2009. I think I had 5 total points...4th season coues tag, my second one. Again, through looking at the draw odds and applying...I got drawn, imagine that?

Even found a deer...who'd a thunk it?

IMG_3347.JPG


IMG_3329.JPG


You can keep calling AZ a waste of money...I'll just keep drawing tags.
 
Zim:

First of all I'm gonna dismiss your statement about not believing that NRs with max bonus points get a tag. What I said in my previous post was all about elk--nothing else-- and if you don't believe it, fine.

I suspect you are one of those guys that buy into the black helicopters and they've got your phones bugged theory...

Anyway, believe what you want..

Don Martin
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-13-11 AT 11:18AM (MST)[p]If you look through the posts you will see I am only asking and trying to figure out what my true NR draw odds are with 8 points. I'm getting totally different opinions. The only arguing that has taken place is between Arizona residents that are arguing between themselves as to how their own draw system works! :) Go figure.
 
Ya, I remember the guy, I believe he was on CWT also... sorry I wasted my time now, I take it all back.

Secret for Zim only... Odds are 100% you will get a tag.

What I'd do is put unit 9 early rifle 1st and 4B early archery 2nd.

Kent
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-13-11 AT 11:59AM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Jan-13-11 AT 11:57 AM (MST)

AZ, for whatever reason, leaves out the last piece of the puzzle needed to figure your "somewhat" true odds. You will never know "true odds" because they look at your 2nd choice as well as the 1st.

I posted units that did not fill in the 20% pass draw. I have a print out right in front of me.

In addition, the std. bonus pass report, linked above, will show 100% draw success for unit 1 archery in the 20% pass for EVERY APPLICANT that had 12 points.
There is no smoke and mirrors.

There were 55 res/non res with 11 points
there were 92 with 10
there were 128 with 9
there were 146 with 8
there were 206 with 7, which is 8 going into the 2011 draw.

As mentioned, in order for you to know exactly how long until last years 7 point pool (this years 8) becomes the max pool, by draw attrition, you have to know how many NR are in each point pool. Those point pools will never drop by more than the 10% NR limit (providing everything stays the same). For unit 1 archery "this year", that 10% limit is 24-25 tags per year, depending how they round the number.

So, all you need to do to know exactly how long till you draw, is to find out how many NR are in each of those point pools. If the same guys continue to apply, you'll know exactly when you will be in the max pool for unit 1 archery.

KRP says the 12 point pool has been tops for the last few years. I have no reason to doubt him but looking at the point pool numbers I listed, it looks to be a while, but, I'm assuming a large percentage of NR in those pools.

Outdoor Writer and I may "discuss" semantics of the 20% pass, but from reading his responses I believe we both end up at the same point.
 
Zim,

While you generally cannot determine exact draw odds as a NR, there is enough information to make an educated approximation. For units that do not hit the NR cap in the bonus pass, the odds calculator on MM will be in the ball park. For units that do hit the cap, and it it fairly easy to see which ones do by looking at the bonus pass odds, you are going to have to do a little homework to see what is going on statewide at your point level.

For example, I apply 1st choice only for unit 9 archery. Everyone, please avoid the comments on overrated unit and NR that has never stepped foot on the unit - I've made the trip from nor cal in September for 10 of the last 15 years. It clearly hit the NR cap last year at the 14 point level. I know this because there were tags issued in the bonus pass to applicants with 12 points while there were unsuccessful applicants at 13 and 14 point levels. So a resident with 12 points had a slightly better than 6.6% chance of drawing and a NR with 12 points had a 0% chance of drawing. At the 14 point level, a resident was 100% and a NR was about 17%. Second choice apps may boost that a little, but only 2 listed unit 9 as 2nd choice, so not a huge player.

This year, there should be about an 80+% chance for a NR at 15 points (14 in 2010 example above) to draw unit 9. A 14 point NR will likely be shut down to 0% chance. For those that don't believe in point creep (krp), it clearly exists on unit 9 for a NR.

Pruney
 
Why it stays static is because people don't understand the 20% pass and the 2nd choice scenario. Therefore more of the 8s, 9s, 10s draw before they hit 11.

If you put in for 1 archery as first choice, you will not be in the 20% draw, therefore your only chance is in the 80%.

If you put 6A as your second choice, you will be in the 20% draw for that, some numbers are guaranteed, so you draw.

Therefore you weren't considered in the 20% or the 80% draws, it counts as putting in but in reality wasn't in the unit 1 draw.

The ones that reach 11 and up are dedicated to a higher draw unit, there is a fairly big dropoff in the 8/9/10 groups as they can draw some kind of an early tag... guaranteed... lol

Kent
 
Well what I do get out of all this is I am giving up completely on applying for unit 1. Goal is to see if unit 8 is attainable, seems like it might be within reach but probably not. Other than that I need to study the 4, 5 & 6's to try and figure out if 8 points gives me any chance, or a good chance to draw this year.
 
unit 9 is the exception with all the national exposure as I've stated in the past, since it wasn't talked about here I didn't mention it... but... do you have any remembered knowledge from 2009/2008. I don't look at that unit myself, but did a few years ago for reference. I don't remember 12 or 13 getting someone into the 20% pass back then, think it was 14/15... if so not much creep in 3 years. It'd be interesting to know.

Kent
 
Zim, last year there were 21 applicants for 4B with 7 or more bps, even if they were all NRs they were 'guaranteed' a tag. You actually could have hunted last year for sure with your 7 bps.

Put in the 2 4s and you'll hunt.

Kent
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-13-11 AT 01:05PM (MST)[p]The 20% pass has dipped into my point level since 2006 when a NR I know of with the same points as I have drew it. Lucky bugger had a AZ strip tag the same year and that just ain't right. I had 10 points in 2006. That was the year after the Taulman USO mess, so that may be an external factor.

For whatever reason, there seems to be a very large number of NRs in my point group that like 9 archery. Well, seemed to be. There are not many of us left now.

Agree that unit 9 is the exception as well as 23N since there are so few archery tags there.

Pruney
 
I dropped AZ 3 or 4 years ago with 3 to 4 points for most everything. I went next door to NM and have drawn deer, barbary sheep and this year, a OIL oryx tag. I dont regret
dropping AZ on bit!! they wont see one more penny from me.
 
Holy crap just apply for a hunt. If you draw you draw.
If you don't, try again next year. Just stay away from
the magazine units.
 
So how do you guys think the combining of the three 6 units to one 6A will affect the hunting and the draw odds there?
 
In regards to the question of lumping of sub-units in Unit 6A back together to make one unit. Personally, I wasn't for it and I don't like it for the archery hunt. I spoke with Brian Wakeling @ G&F and his explanation to me didn't make a lot of sense. Something about the dept. didn't want to tell people where they could hunt within a unit. I may have misunderstood him, but that's what I got out of that conversation.

So, are you kidding me? The application process does exactly that! And if you don't want to hunt in a particular part of a unit, then don't apply for a tag there!

I think the total archery bull permit numbers for 6A are about the same as last year, but I sure wouldn't want to draw tag, plan a hunt in 6A west, then get up there to find half of the permittees there cause they heard it was the unit's "Honey Hole"!

Also did anyone pick up that after the archery hunt in Sept., in October there is going to be a Juniors only hunt, then a huge antlerless hunt, then a 120 permit rifle bull hunt on the third week of Oct? Think those bulls on that hunt will be just a tad rattled?

Last year, the juniors and antlerless hunts were held at a different time.

Then of course there is the M.L bull hunt and the general rifle hunt in that unit. How the heck does a bull survive to reach a ripe old age in that unit?

Pretty tough I'd say. This is just my opinion..

Don Martin
AWO
 
sremmim,
Sorry, but after a 2 year drought 2011 is likely to be the mother load for me as far as tags go. I need to plan my applications VERY carefully. I've got preference points to draw my CO deer(4) & lope(14), 14 points for UT Pauns rifle deer, 60% chance for WY elk 38, 50% chance for my WY moose unit, 25% for WY lope. I don't know how the hell I didn't draw something last year, but I am real edgey this year fearing the dam will burst.

EVILNR,
Awesome handle! :)
 
Zim,

Just apply for a bonus point if your worried
about too many tags.


Don,

How does G&F justify so many cow tags in
10? As far as ican tell they are wiping out the
quality in that unit as well as 6A. Does this stem
from there "opportunity" goal?
 
Guys, Zim just wants a world class elk tag and he wants to know EXACTLY when he will get it. No problem, LOL.

Zim, how is your planning for New Mexico going? No bonus or preference points along with $28 to apply each species and draw odds for the good units are just as bad if not worse than AZ.
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-13-11 AT 03:36PM (MST)[p]ktmrider2a,
Actually I aready said I've given up on the better units. My goal is only to understand the system so I can use my points wisely, be it this year or in the future. And actually I appreciate NM's system the way it is because it is different, as are some other states. In some situations like getting a newbie involved, they have a chance to draw with me for a lesser unit without me losing points. Just different and more flexible, not better or worse.

sremim,
"Just apply for a bonus point if your worried
about too many tags." I have many things to plan around that I'm not going to mention here. Obvious ones. Many combinations depending on early draws. Season overlaps. Is it too much to ask for a guy to simply understand one's chances of drawing a particular unit?.........I mean.........really?

Most states I can pull up one chart of their website and know my chances within 60 seconds w/o having to bother folks on a message board for instructions. You think I like asking?

I will call AZF&G this afternoon and ask about a few specific units.
 
The first pass point level is pretty easy to see, and if you want to know for sure, you likely need one, maybe two more as a nonresident. And you might have some small chance till you get to the first pass point level....If it's imperative you know for mostly sure, do points only till that level. If you want to take a chance on beating that...give it a go. I do:)
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-13-11 AT 11:30PM (MST)[p]I forgot my hunting buddy has 9 points and me 8, and AZ round up so we'd have 9. Looks like if we both get the hunters ed point we'll be in the 10 point pool and in the running for unit 8 tags. My HF says all 17 NR's who drew unit 8 had 9 points in 2010. Now I just hafta look through the stats to see how many guys applied with 9.
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-14-11 AT 10:20AM (MST)[p]Well I had a discussion with my buddy about this last night. He does not want to draw 2 elk tags esp. that far apart same year. We have a 60% chance of drawing WY unit 38 so that is what we are going for this year. We have previously applied in 8 as a 2nd choice. It seems to be one of the few units fit between the top tier units and the mid-tier units, where our points are. Might even have a chance to draw next year w/o the hunter's ed point but it would be a nice year for a 3 day getaway anyway, so we will both try to get down there.

Does anyone know if the hunt numbers change from year to year? The stats in the points link above did not line up with what unit 8 should be. I used the hunt number from this year's regulations. I need to find out how many applicants are in the top 2 draw pool for unit 8. Should be those with 8 & 9 points in last year's draw.
 
Dang! After running through the numbers it looks like after you take out last year's successful guys we would have around a 35 in 54 chance chance of drawing unit 8 this year even w/o doing the hunters ed point. If we just get a point this year we'd be max point next year and about be assured tags for 8.

Am I reading the point chart right? Thanks.

Sounds like the way to go.
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-14-11 AT 07:26PM (MST)[p]I'm back at work but no, those numbers seem high. I figured I had 50/50 this year with 9, and again, you don't know for sure unless you have the qnty of nr in those pools.
That's a 2010 report so this years 8 point pool is 7 point pool on that report.
 
Your odds are better than that in the trend.

3 tags went to the 8 bp pool in the 20% pass round... that means one of two things. More than 17 NRs applied with 9+ bps or the more likely scenario... 10 of the 9 bp'ers drew another tag first.

No way for it to get to the 8 bp pool unless there were 10 9 bp'ers eliminated from that draw first.

No way to know how many, but some of the 8 bp'ers also drew other units and won't continue to 9.

The wild card is the switch overs... those like you looking to draw and not wait. It moves many in the 8 to 10 groups down and keeps the odds for the 12+ draws static.

Kent
 
If you knew how many of the 42 10 and 9 bp'ers were NRs then you would know how many of the 10 that didn't draw a unit 8 tag, drew another tag.

example... if there were 21 NRs, then 4 didn't draw and got a bp... 6 Rs received a tag from another unit.

Kent
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-14-11 AT 08:17PM (MST)[p]Actually after studying the system and looking over the chart again I believe our odds will be lower. Because it appears this hunt filled up the 10% NR max in this 20% pass. HF says 17 NR's drew with 9 points. If there were 35 total tags in the 20% round that means the NR limit would be.......17. Thus shutting out any other NR's in that 9 point pool. So we have no idea what our odds are this year because we don't know how many 9 point NR's failed to draw last year. That is the pool ahead of us so if there were more than 17 and they all apply this year there will be no tags left for our pool.

The 3 that drew in the 8 point pool had to be residents, which means all residents who applied for that hunt with 9 points drew.

Does this make sense?
 
The only way the odds were as low as 17/27 or 35/54 as you stated above, is if there were 27 NRs with 9+ bps and no Rs drew another unit before the unit 8 20% draw.

It's possible, more likely a combo. Call G&F again or maybe someone here has the book that say's how many NRs with 9+.

The odds would then have been 17/by the NR #... in my example it would have been 17/21.

Kent
 
It's true all Residents with 9+ drew a tag, just not necessarily a unit 8 tag... 10 8s drew that unit's tag... but how many drew a different first or second choice, there were some for sure, you can't carry all the 8s to a 9 for this year.

Kent
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-14-11 AT 09:42PM (MST)[p]
The Bonus Pass went as follows:
All 13 applicants in the 10 point pool drew.
19 of the 29 drew in the 9 point pool.
Then, the draw had to go out of the 9 point pool and into the 8 point pool to fill the 20%, leaving 10 guys still in the 9 point pool.
The only way that can happen is the 10% nr limit was reached.
3 guys then drew from the 8 point pool, filling out the 20% for the Bonus Pass.

So, the remaining 10 guys in the 9 point pool are NR. They will have 10 points this year. They make up half of this years 10% NR cap.

44 guys will move up from last years 8 point pool into the 9 point pool this year. We don't know their res/nr status.

This years Bonus pass will take all 10, 10 point pool NR guys and 30 of the 9 point guys, with a limit of 20 total tags going to NR.

6 guys did draw their 1st choice before they were drawn for the unit 8 Bonus Pass tag. 4 residents and 2 Non Res.

The only way you will draw a tag with 8 points is if by some miracle the Bonus Pass draws 30 residents before it draws 10 non res guys in the 9 point pool, assuming those 10 guys stay in the 10 point pool and are in fact Non Residents, AND you get a low enough number for the 1-2 pass and you grab one of the remaining NR tags.
You will not draw a tag in the Bonus Pass.

So, you do have a chance.
 
Well, we are 9 point holders so it sounds like even if all 44 nine point holders were nonresidents we'd have a 10/46 chance (there are 2 in our party). However, I have good news for you. I just got off the phone with my partner. We were discussing all our draws, thinking of possibly going for this. However, we are going to stick with our plan to pass this year and just go for Wyoming which is likely a better chance to draw (60%). We don't want both these tags the same year. So you won't have to compete with us this year. :)

But I am glad now I took time to understand the system and 20% pass stats.
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-15-11 AT 06:47AM (MST)[p]I truly am not trying to argue, correct or play gottcha, just discuss and hopefully we all can understand the draw a little better.

This is key in what I'm saying about creep and how if you follow the trends of your preferred unit over the years, you can predict your draw accurately, which is what we all want to know.

QUOTE....

"So, the remaining 10 guys in the 9 point pool are NR. They will have 10 points this year. They make up half of this years 10% NR cap.

6 guys did draw their 1st choice before they were drawn for the unit 8 Bonus Pass tag. 4 residents and 2 Non Res."

-----------------------------------------------

The 6 guys that drew their first choice are in the 10 that put unit 8 as a 1st or 2nd choice on their app but didn't get a unit 8 tag. That means there are only 4 that advance to 10 bps and those had to be NRs. They don't remove the 6 that drew their first choice from the statistic rolls.

http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/docu...dElk-BonusPointReport-1-2PassbyHuntNumber.pdf

They are the exact same numbers in the overall draw statistics as they are in the 20% pass page.

So only 4 moved forward to 10 bps... This goes with every bp group. The 8 bp group going to 9 this year also had some draw their first or second choice. Don't know how many over the 10 that drew a unit 8 tag... 3 in the 20% draw and 7 in the 80%... but the 8 bp group overall had a 25% success for elk, so guessing that 75% of the 8s advance to 9 would be fairly close.

All this ups the odds, and again works for all hunts.

Here's the numbers with no switchovers or the 8 bp group going to 9 didn't draw another unit...

4 at 10 bps
37 at 9 bps, that's because 7 more of the 8s drew a unit 8 tag in the general draw, making 10 total.

41 with 10 or 9 bps... there were 42 with 10 or 9 in 2010. Figure some switchovers so plus a few and figure some of the 8s from last year drew other units so minus a few.

Kent
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-15-11 AT 10:01AM (MST)[p]Kent,

Thanks much for that analysis. I read it closely and I believe follow all what you are saying.

So figuring no switchovers there would be 41 guys for 20 tags this year?

Hope that is right. That would mean I understand everything. Hopefully this will help other guys figure out their odds this year as well.

I know unit 8 quality has to be slipping some with the quota increasing over the last few years. One thing I am interested in watching is if the HF rankings push more guys in for this hunt. If I remember right they did not have it in their top 6 last year, but it is back to #5 this year. HF had units 23 N&S way up last year and yikes there were a lot of 13/14 point guys applied for there. Now they claim 23 quality has dropped so some will likely read that and jump ship. Curious to see.

Typically I just watch HF to see where NOT to apply. Like this year in WY. We are max points but the bowhunt we want is not even in HF's top 10. We'd have the same odds for unit 7 which they have ranked #2. But I researched and picked 38. Personally I suspect HF refers folks to 7 so they can be a middle man for private land leases around there when their subscribers draw. :)

Although I'm in Illinois, I was able to visit AZ in 2006 and scouted units 8, 4 & 5 to get an idea about these areas. I really like the terrain of 8.
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-15-11 AT 10:27AM (MST)[p]This is what we know of last year using Bob's info on 4 res and 2 nrs drawing another tag in the 10 & 9 pools of 2010, also that 10 tags went to the 47 8 bp pool after the general draw was done.

The maximum number of advances from 8,9,10 bps was 41. obviously some of the 8s drew other tags and knocked them out the same as the 6 9s drew other tags, so the number is lower, we just don't know what.

There were 23 NRs in the 9/10 bp pools, 17 drew unit 8 tags, 2 drew their first choice, 4 went to 10 bps... therefore it was a 19/23rd odds of drawing a tag as a NR for those groups. That's pretty good.

This year there will be 20 tags instead of 17 available to NRs. If that had been the case last year then 3 more NRs would have drawn and 5 in the 8 group. So the odds would have been 22/23rds, only one getting shut out with 9 bps.

I forgot the 41 for 20 tags... actually it'd be 41 for 40 tags, 20%... The 20 (10%) only relates to the NRs, so that depends on how many NRs apply with 9+ bps... if it's 23 again, then it's 23 for 20.

Kent
 
Were good Kent.

I went straight off the report and didn't get too detailed.
The info we all want and need should be forthcoming from the dept but I have to jump thru some hoops first. I appreciate your help here and will let you know what transpires.
 
When will all states realize that everyone wants a process like NV has. It's the simplest and best system of any state. I'd rather never get drawn for a hunt, knowing that I at least had a chance.
 
One of the things I am going to report to the dept. is the frustrations that many if not most of the NR have with our current system. I hear the complaints at every NR class I do..which is two times a year.

I am going to suggest they come up with a way to offer maybe one permit in those high quality areas that every NR could have a chance at regardless of how many bonus points they have. Those of us residents who do not have max points still have a shot at 80% of the tags offered after the 20% max point draw..

My recommendation doesn't mean exceeding the 10% cap, just make available a permit so that those NR not in the max pool do have some kind, albeit a long shot, at a tag. I call it dangling the carrot out in front of the horse. As long as you have a CHANCE you will probably stay in the system. Using the Strip as a example, there are currently up to 5 tags that can go to NR's. What if they pulled one of those tags out, left the 4 in place, and did a draw for NR's only that included all non-residents, regardless of the bonus points they have? Might work, might not. Lots of things would have to change for sure to make it happen, but its a thought.

Don't know where it will go, but I am attending a meeting of the Master Hunter ED instructors in March and I will bring this up.

Don Martin
 
Don,
I believe Jason Carter of HF asked at the commission meeting that we were at (at Phoenix College?) a few years ago to have the 10% NR cap split so NR could have a chance in the regular draw. As you know, nothing was done. You may wish to give Jason Carter a call.

Doug

You are welcome to visit my Photo Gallery here http://dougkoepsel.smugmug.com/
The-Wave-9-15-10edited_210.jpg
 
Doug:

This isn't going to be the first time they will hear it, and maybe not the last. However, it can't hurt to try, right?

Don Martin
 
Don,
Hopefully the newer commissioners ears won't be so deaf. Have you gotten any support from the region managers or from Larry Voyles that they could get internal wheels moving? Might be able to use the money loss approach if the data shows a declining number of new NR applicants (those with no BP)

You are welcome to visit my Photo Gallery here http://dougkoepsel.smugmug.com/
The-Wave-9-15-10edited_210.jpg
 

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