Point Creep

[muleymaddness]

Now that the infamous backdoor method has opened, what does everyone think as far as what you can see for point creep so far? Was it hype or really did happen?

 

[ORIONTHEHUNTER]

Reading around on some forums I've heard guys claiming up to 3 points on some 3rd and 4th season tags

 

[DW]

I'll say hype for the most part. Probably pockets of it but not widespread.

 

[toddh]

Did not see much in second season in the unit I am hunting.

 

[elks96]

When it comes down to it most guys will have applied for a less unit with more tags and as result they will not have much point creep. However the any unit that is better than average will see creep in the 3rd and 4th seasons. I am pretty certain that one unit I watch jumped 4 points this year for residents in the 4th. Point creep happens every year, but I am willing to bet a lot of people jumped ship with the late dates.

Even if it did not jump a whole point, there will be significant creep if a unit went from 50% chance with said points to 20% as there will be a ripple effect for years to come.

 

[ridgerunner]

I'm guessing the 3rd and 4th season hunts had the worst of it but I know at least one early rifle tag had it too.

 

[lostinOregon]

They issued a bunch more tags than expected so it wasn't as bad. When they double the number of 4th season tags it does affect the draw. If you are applying for a low demand hunt it probably didn't change much either. Adding the tags saved some folks.

Rich

 

[DreaminOf200]

I can't speak to this year in particular, but 9 years ago, we drew with either 4 or 5 points (I can't remember exactly). This year we had nine points going in to the draw for the same hunt and didn't pull a tag. This was for a muzzy hunt, and three of us applied individually. If/when I finally pull this tag again, I'll have to start looking for a new place to hunt because it's just not worth waiting 10 years to hunt...

 

[Togwotee]

Last year 67 4th took 15, I didn't draw this year with 18. if they issued more tags and 18 still didn't do it that means the point creep was awful.















Stay Thirsty My Friends

 

[DW]

They gave away 2 non res last year so maybe 3 this year in 67 4th season. If 3 guys with 19 pts decided this was the year you were out tog. With so few tags it gets magnified easily and quickly.

 

[DW]

Guess what I'm saying is with such a small pond it doesn't take a very big rock to drastically change the water level.

 

[ElmerFudd]

You can get an idea of the creep by looking at the pools below. If there is a multiple year tag quota log jam in the next pool down, it stands to reason that points required will go up for a while. And as stated, applicants jump around and with few tags, predicting points to draw is no more than a guess.

 

[YBO]

Anyone out in MM land know how many points it took to draw 44 3rd for a NR? I had 19 and did not draw. Thanks

 

[Hawkeye]

I struck out on a third season tag with 9 points that took 6 points last year to draw.

-Hawkeye-

 

[HNTBIGBULLS]

To me, the biggest factor is the reset of
the season dates. There is alot of people
that wait for that. Thats the main reason
I burned my points last year, on a better
unit, that there would have been no way in
hell to draw this year.

 

[ColoradoOak]

I think the thing that a lot of people don't take into account are those who are applying for points only. In 2015 there were 5,081 non-residents with 10 or more preference points who applied for a preference point first choice. There was only 6,272 total NR with 10+ points in the draw, meaning that only 1,191 actually applied for a licenses.

In contrast, only 345 deer licenses were drawn by NR with 10 or more points. It stands to reason that if you have a lot of points you are going to apply for a premium hunt. And those hunts generally have few licenses available, especially for NR. It only takes a handful of those 5,000+ points only appliers to jump in and cause substantial point creep.

Hopefully those numbers are a wake-up call for those of you who might futilely be chasing the point creep.

 

[osu92]

Struck out with 11 points on what was an 8+ point 3rd season tag last year.

 

[SDBugler]

My son applied for a 3rd season unit that had "declining" point creep for non residents over the past few years.

2015 56% of those with 3 points drew.
2014 38% of those with 3 points drew.
2013 5% of those with 3 points drew.

He had 4 points this year and didn't draw.

 

[muleymaddness]

SDBugler - sent you a pm.

 

[ridgerunner]

I'm a jumper this year. Been building due to life and other great hunts in other states but decided this was the year to hunt Colorado so I jumped in. Didn't go for a 3rd or 4th season tag so I can't be blamed for the creep on those but I'm willing to bet there were alot of 10+ guys that jumped in this year.

 

[Prime_Beef]

The 4th season hunt I drew last year with 17NR points only took 13 the year before. I applied for it again this year (had to turn my tag in last year), again with 17, and did not draw. Figured that was going to happen.

 

[mdndeer]

I had 22 NR Deer points and didn't get drawn. Will try next year with 23 points

 

[nripepi]

I agree that the main reason is the number of tags in some 3rd and most 4th season units. Typically when you look at 4th season tags there will be 3-10 non-resident tags and there is a wide range of point holders grabbing those tags. For example, in a unit I looked at they gave 5 non-resident tags and 2 persons with 10 drew, 1 person with 11 drew and 2 with 16. If only a few people with 13-14 points decide to jump in, then the minimum number to draw can easily jump significantly. I bet there will be a drop next year and definitely the year after for some of these 4th season tags.

 

[JACOB2006]

As a New Mexico resident, you can keep the point system! At least we have a chance every year.

 

[Dirtbag]

>As a New Mexico resident, you
>can keep the point system!
>At least we have a
>chance every year.


Yeah.......I guess 1 in 50,000 is considered a "chance".......for NR

 

[tx_packmule]

>
>Last year 67 4th took 15,
>I didn't draw this year
>with 18. if
>they issued more tags and
>18 still didn't do it
>that means the point creep
>was awful.

If I were to guess, some guys who could've drawn the tag in 07 or did and turned in tags sat on points after the winter kill and also opted to pass last year for more favorable dates.

 

[BeDawg]

I agree, NV has the best draw system followed by Utah.

 

[elks96]

>>As a New Mexico resident, you
>>can keep the point system!
>>At least we have a
>>chance every year.
>
>
>Yeah.......I guess 1 in 50,000 is
>considered a "chance".......for NR


With points there is no chance unless you are the top holder... My wife started hunting only a couple years ago, she wil never have a tag in any of the top units and even the units that were taking 2-3 points are now taking 5-6. Sorry but eventually points will eliminate hunting for a lot of people in a a lot of units.

8 years ago a NR could draw my home unit with 2-3 points. this year it look like 8 can draw it but 9 was guaranteed....

Anyone with less than 8 had no chance at all.

 

[elks96]

>I'm a jumper this year.
>Been building due to life
>and other great hunts in
>other states but decided this
>was the year to hunt
>Colorado so I jumped in.
> Didn't go for a
>3rd or 4th season tag
>so I can't be blamed
>for the creep on those
>but I'm willing to bet
>there were alot of 10+
>guys that jumped in this
>year.

Sorry but you may not have caused point creep in a better hunt code, but when you jumped into a less code you also caused it there.... There is always point creep in every hunt code eventually.

Like posted above when the 5000 guys like myself decide to quit just hoarding points then things will get even worse.

 

[fullthrottle]

I Agree Nevada has the best system. You always have a chance, and your odds get better the longer you put in. Best of both worlds.

 

[Servehim]

I agree Nevada has by far the best system in place for drawing quality tags. Anyone could draw year one but a 10 yr guy has 101 times better odds , make sense to me.

 

[mntman]

I bet
>there will be a drop
>next year and definitely the
>year after for some of
>these 4th season tags.


Nope, reason is next years dates fall only 1 day earlier... so it will jump again next year. Especially if there is a lot of "big" bucks shot and spread around the web. Even more guys will jump in to get while the getting is good.


Mntman

"Hunting is where you prove yourself"

 

[nripepi]

Maybe, but I think those "ready" to spend their points went all in this year. I am not expecting a major drop next year, but I definitely think it could come down a point or two on these high demand 4th season tags that give out less than 10 tags. Time will tell.

 

[Tomichi]

No brother good in law drew 55 4th with 15 resident ..I have 15 days off...no excuses.