Pronghorn Winter Kill

UngulateFoe · Apr 9, 2012

Nonresident from New Mexico, will have average of 4.3 PP with my group this year coming to harvest antelope. My uncle called me today to discuss his concern over an Eastman's article he read about severe winter kill in WY. I lived in Laramie during winter of 2010-2011, and I know that winter definitely put a hurtin on them. Was 2011-2012 bad too? We have our first choice in the SW, area 93 and 2nd choice in Shirley Basin, area 47.

Any help much appreciated! If it is indeed bad enough, we may relinquish tags this year

The Beast is Dead, Long Live the Beast.

-The Nuge

Whiterock · Apr 9, 2012

I havebeen waiting to see what the tag numbers will be in unit 47 myself.I was told they were looking at a 20-30 percent deduction.It was my first choice application.

TOPGUN · Apr 9, 2012

This winter was almost nonexistent throughout most of the state to the best of my knowledge. The previous winter, as you mentioned, is what really clobbered deer and antelope in the southern part of the state. That will probably have an effect on trophy class goats for a couple more years in some areas. Unit 93 shows as having an above average winter kill a year ago, but 47 had a normal year. Both are still listed as good hunting units in the magazine for the 2012 season.

JJS · Apr 9, 2012

I live in Laramie now and this winter was nothing like last years. The snow never really stayed and the temperatures never dropped to below 0 for more than a day. We've also been having extrmely warm weather for the entire spring. I really don't know about any numbers on winter kill, but I would say the antelope had it pretty easy.

Triple_BB · Apr 9, 2012

Does 47 ever have left over tags after the first draw? I'd be researching 93 and not worry about 47...

TOPGUN · Apr 9, 2012

LAST EDITED ON Apr-09-12 AT 05:34PM (MST)[p]Very true! Last year there were 29 tags in the random draw for unit 47 with 502 1st choice, 110 2nd, and 67 3rd choice applicants. He should draw 93 as a first choice though, as last year <3PPs was 100% and 2PPs was 68.85%.

HiMtnHntr · Apr 9, 2012

LAST EDITED ON Apr-09-12 AT 06:24PM (MST)[p]This winter was a piece of cake. What you're seeing with a lot of these tag reductions is a delayed response to the winter of 2010-2011, not a reaction to this winter. It sure sounds like there's a lot of changes taking place, more so than in the last several years . . .

Whiterock · Apr 9, 2012

LAST EDITED ON Apr-09-12 AT 06:30PM (MST)[p]I agree,47 is getting hard to draw.I only have one point and don't think that is going to do it .Planning on drawing my second choice.
Back before the pref point system,I used to draw a unit 47 tag almost every time i applied.But I think the pref point system is better.You can plan ahead if you want to.

nfh · Apr 9, 2012

Record snows last year and this year its been very mild. never once put the coveralls once this year.

Califelkslayer · Apr 10, 2012

I applied 47, Type 2. four of us average 2.5 PPs. I was afraid the type 1 tag was not a sure thing this year as I believe it was 69% with 2 PPs last year. Plus achery elk isn't over until 9/30 anyways.

TOPGUN · Apr 11, 2012

LAST EDITED ON Apr-11-12 AT 06:27AM (MST)[p]47-2 was 100% draw last year with less than 2 PPs, so you should draw the tag this year unless they really cut the number. 47-1 would have been very iffy,

WapitiBob · Apr 11, 2012

the allocation in 47 is proposed at 900 from 1000.
93 is at 500, down from 600.

marburg · Apr 11, 2012

Good info. Where can you find the proposed tag allocations for all the units?

Whiterock · Apr 11, 2012

Interesting.Not as much of a deduction as I had in mind.

WapitiBob · Apr 12, 2012

call the dept and they will email the season proposals.

UngulateFoe · Apr 16, 2012

>LAST EDITED ON Apr-09-12
>AT 05:34?PM (MST)
>
>Very true! Last year there
>were 29 tags in the
>random draw for unit 47
>with 502 1st choice, 110
>2nd, and 67 3rd choice
>applicants. He should draw
>93 as a first choice
>though, as last year <3PPs
>was 100% and 2PPs was
>68.85%.

Thanks for all the replies guys. I'm thinking we'll stick with it this year.

TOPGUN, I'm wondering how you're figuring draw odds for my first choice. When I look at NR draw odds for 2011, it tells me that for first choice applicants in unit 93, only 7% of those with less than 4 points were successful. And less than or equal to 3 points was 0%. Am I missing something? [http://wgfd.wyo.gov/web2011/Departments/Hunting/pdfs/Draw_Ant_PP_NonRes_2011.pdf]

The Beast is Dead, Long Live the Beast.

-The Nuge

UngulateFoe · Apr 16, 2012

Not sure why my post got stuck in the middle of the thread trail, but see my post in between post #7 and #8.

The Beast is Dead, Long Live the Beast.

-The Nuge

TOPGUN · Apr 16, 2012

I have no idea why I put those other figures up as representing unit 93 because they are the stats for the unit 47 Regular PP Draw for 2011. The 2011 Regular PP Draw for unit 93 shows that 4PPs was a 100% draw and <4 PPs was only 7.69%. That means that unless they really cut tag numbers and/or have a lot more entries for unit 93 as first choice,you still have a good chance at drawing the tag with your 4.3 PP average amongst you and your buddies.

UngulateFoe · Apr 16, 2012

OK, thats what I had figured too. Just making sure, thanks!

The Beast is Dead, Long Live the Beast.

-The Nuge

UngulateFoe · Apr 16, 2012

One more question TOPGUN, since you seem to know your stuff. If by chance the situation you explained happens and we don't get unit 93, would we pretty much have a guarantee draw for our second choice unit 47? The odds only show first choice applicants, so I'm wondering how it works with points when it is your second chice. thanks

The Beast is Dead, Long Live the Beast.

-The Nuge

WapitiBob · Apr 16, 2012

They don't look at points for 2nd choice. You actually get a new number. To see your chances you need to look at random draw for 93.

TOPGUN · Apr 16, 2012

LAST EDITED ON Apr-16-12 AT 07:09PM (MST)[p]There is no way you would draw 47 as a second choice because last year there were 502 first choice applicants for the 29 tags in the NR Draw where no points are used and where you would be placed if you fail to draw your 93 tag. What you need to do is look at all the units in that draw from last year and see which ones had fewer first choice applicants than the number of tags offered. When that happens that is how you have a chance to draw a tag at random on your second choice with all the others who also have that unit as their second choice. You have until June 3 to go online and modify your choices, but the leader has to do it on all the applications in a party situation.