Utah and Wyoming Draw Odds

J

JDC

Active Member
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LAST EDITED ON Aug-25-11 AT 02:39PM (MST) by Founder (admin)[p]We are a little bit early this year, but for those that use the system, the draw odds database for Utah and Wyoming have been updated to include the 2011 odds. Arizona (elk and pronghorn) as well as all of Colorado will be up shortly.

http://huntodds.monstermuleys.com/

Good luck on the hunts.

Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
 
Awesome. I was going to ask when they would be up, but I figured I could be a little patient.

Best odds on the Net.

Grizzly
 
I am a little slow. So if I currently have 7 points (when I check the DWR site), that is the number I enter. Then when I see the results it shows me in the blue colum, which is 6 points. Which colum will be my odds of that tag next year?
 
CNEDEER,

This is the most frequently asked question concerning the odds database. These odds are based on the true odds of drawing. We do not know what your odds will be in 2012 when you apply with 7. I won't be able to calculate the true odds until the application reports come out after next years drawing.

To show your true odds, you need to enter the number of points the DWR indicates you have right now (7). The system will then automatically reduce that by one to indicate the point level you were in here in 2011. This shows what your odds of drawing were this year. You can look at the level above you to get an idea what your odds should be like next year.

I hope that this helps.

Thanks,

JDC
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
 
JDC
Thanks for all the work you put into that. I know a little bit about what is involved and I know it takes time.

Great resource. Appreciate it big time.

oakbrush
 
I guess i don't understand the odds well enough, I put with a friend who has 14 bonus points, I have 7. If they average this out it's 10.5 . We put in and didn't draw your odds for the hunt we applied for said everyone with 10 points drew. and there was only One person that had 11 and they drew. Any help
 
Thank you so much for offering this utility to us.......easy to use and invaluable!!!!
 
kgmein,

You explained it correctly. With an average of 10.5, your point level would have been rounded down to 10. If the odds system here shows that 10 points was 100%, there may be an error somewhere. To look into this, I need to know what unit you are referring to. If you would prefer, send me a PM and I will try to figure out what is happening.

Thanks,

Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
 
If it shows 14 and 7 now, then in 2011 it was 13 & 6. Which means you were in the 9-point pool, which had a 14.3% chance of success.

To be in the 10-point pool, it would have to show 15 and 8 points now.

That is how I read it anyway.

Grizzly
 
kgmein,

Grizzly is correct. If the DWR shows you as having 14 and 7 points right now, you were down one point from those levels in the drawing this year. After being unsuccessful in drawing a tag, you were both awarded another point. You were most likely in the 9 point pool.

Another disappointing twist to this is that 3 of the 4 bonus tags were awarded to the 10 point level leaving only 1 bonus tag to be awarded to the 9 point pool. Since your application required 2 permits, there was no way you could have drawn it. However, you did compete for the 4 random tags but the odds of drawing those tags is much lower - only about 7%.

You are right in the mix for next year however. Assuming that nothing changes, you should be almost guaranteed to draw.

Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
 
Kgmein, I am not sure where you were looking at the odds but for 2011 there was noone with 11 points who put in for oak creek muzzle. I realize thats not really that important but Thought I would let ya know. I can't figure out what happened to you on your odds because even if you had 6 and your friend had 13 gioing into the draw this year you should have averaged 9.5 which is then rounded down to 9 and then point added for the year for a total of 10. If I am wrong someone will most likely let us know but thats how I understand it. Also, I looked on the DWR website and their numbers match what JDC has on the hunt odds site. Good luck and I hope you get it figured out.
 
I was always under the impression that Utah didn't average points but just used the number of points of the person with the least amount. I know Wyoming averages points but I didn't think Utah did. I may be wrong though.
 
FlyFool,

Utah does average when you apply as a group. They will also round down to the nearest whole number. Thats one reason that applying with someone with fewer points than you really hurts in Utah.

Wyoming will average and use what ever that average ends up being - even if it is not a whole number (1.25, 2.75, etc)

Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
 

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