Trammer
Active Member
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The dictionary defines odds as The Probability That Something Will Occur. So, when we look up our draw odds for hunts in Utah we expect to learn what our chances of drawing a particular permit are. But what we find is nonsense.
For example; Chubs chances of drawing the lone Lockhart Basin Desert Bighorn Sheep Permit is listed as 1 in 6 in a column titled "success ratio" and success ratio, as it is listed, relates only to applicants with the same number of bonus points as Chubs. A meaningless number to be sure because, Chubs is not in the drawing only with people who have the same number of bonus points as him. Chubs is in the drawing with 96 other people.
So more accurately Chubs odds are 1 in 97 not 1 in 6 as listed. Now, because 1st time applicants with 0 bonus points are still in the draw 1 time and everyone else is in the draw 1 time plus however many bonus point they have; this exact hunt has 752 names in the hat. Because Chubs had 12 bonus points his name was 13 times in the hat. His exact odds were 1 in 58.
It would be nice to get real draw odds for Utah.
For example; Chubs chances of drawing the lone Lockhart Basin Desert Bighorn Sheep Permit is listed as 1 in 6 in a column titled "success ratio" and success ratio, as it is listed, relates only to applicants with the same number of bonus points as Chubs. A meaningless number to be sure because, Chubs is not in the drawing only with people who have the same number of bonus points as him. Chubs is in the drawing with 96 other people.
So more accurately Chubs odds are 1 in 97 not 1 in 6 as listed. Now, because 1st time applicants with 0 bonus points are still in the draw 1 time and everyone else is in the draw 1 time plus however many bonus point they have; this exact hunt has 752 names in the hat. Because Chubs had 12 bonus points his name was 13 times in the hat. His exact odds were 1 in 58.
It would be nice to get real draw odds for Utah.