Where to hunt in 30 2nd season

[mountainmac1]

Wondering if I can get some input on where to hunt in 30 during the 2nd rifle season. Assuming the weather is normal at this time of year. Here are the canyons I am looking at.

South Canyon
Long Canyon
Demeree Canyon
Garvey Canyon
Baxter Pass

If there is little or no snow at this time, should I be hunting higher in these canyons, or do the deer stick pretty low throughout the year? I usually like to hunt as high as I can. I have only spoken to other hunters that have hunted 3rd season, but I know how different the two hunts can be. So I would love to get some input from some of you that have hunted 2nd season.

My hunting partner will take any decent 4 point over 24" wide. I am a little more selective. Any help would be greatly appreciated.

 

[MuskegMan]

Hope to be there too. I've got 37% odds of drawing.

 

[leonard]

Pm sent

 

[stinky]

You may want to post at thecoloradohunter.com The moderator there used to guide in that area and he still hunts the area.
John 14:6

 

[mountainmac1]

Thank you guys for the input. I feel like this hunt is going to sneak up on me before I know it.

 

[lostinOregon]

I was looking at the drawing odds. I see that Muskegman shows that last year it was 37% with 4 points. I went to the odds and I wanted to point out a few things. It is not who drew last year that will predict this years odds. I think everyone gets a little confused on this.

Look at this way. If the same folks apply this year as last there will be 12 people with 5 points and 19 people with 4 points. That totals 31 tags and 30 went to NR's last year. So if the same amount of people apply only one person with 4 points won't draw.

But here is the wild card. In 2010 no one put in for this hunt who had over 6 points. In 2011 9 hunters jumped in with more than 6 points (4 with 11, 1 with 10, 1 with 9, 1 with 8 and one with 7).

So guessing who is going to apply with more than 6 points this year is a crap shoot. I watch these things closely and call it the "fool factor" from hunting fool. Actually there are a lot of influences but they all are from the information age (MM, Eastman's, huntin fool, etc).

On MM last year a gentlement posted a monster buck from 30 3rd season. So I am guessing that a bunch more will be jumping in with more than 6 points. With point creep also playing a major factor you can't rely on last years numbers when making assumptions. The only way to accurately predict is pay attention to all information sources and look at past trends.

I am estimating about the same amount of folks jumping in with more than 6 points and a few more with applying with 5 and 4 points respectively. 21 received a lot of press this year in huntin fool and other sources. The gunnison basin and eagle are still getting negative press and 21 second is out of reach of most.

So I estimate 8 to 10 folks applying with more than 6 points and about 18 to 20 folks applying with 5 points. This will leave very few tags for folks if any for people with 4 points.

If you look at past impacts of attention to units you will see that the impact on drawing is huge. I am not trying to rain on anyone's parade, but it is clear to me after years of pouring over numbers that what happened last year is not a true indicator of this year, especially in Colorado.

I guess I will see how close I come on this. Most of my friends think I am sick but I come pretty close on estimates every year.

Rich

 

[skipbuck]

>I was looking at the drawing
>odds. I see that
>Muskegman shows that last year
>it was 37% with 4
>points. I went to
>the odds and I wanted
>to point out a few
>things. It is not
>who drew last year that
>will predict this years odds.
> I think everyone gets
>a little confused on this.
>
>
>Look at this way. If
>the same folks apply this
>year as last there will
>be 12 people with 5
>points and 19 people with
>4 points. That totals
>31 tags and 30 went
>to NR's last year.
>So if the same amount
>of people apply only one
>person with 4 points won't
>draw.
>
>But here is the wild card.
> In 2010 no one
>put in for this hunt
>who had over 6 points.
> In 2011 9 hunters
>jumped in with more than
>6 points (4 with 11,
>1 with 10, 1 with
>9, 1 with 8 and
>one with 7).
>
>So guessing who is going to
>apply with more than 6
>points this year is a
>crap shoot. I watch
>these things closely and call
>it the "fool factor" from
>hunting fool. Actually there
>are a lot of influences
>but they all are from
>the information age (MM, Eastman's,
>huntin fool, etc).
>
>On MM last year a gentlement
>posted a monster buck from
>30 3rd season. So
>I am guessing that a
>bunch more will be jumping
>in with more than 6
>points. With point creep
>also playing a major factor
>you can't rely on last
>years numbers when making assumptions.
> The only way to
>accurately predict is pay attention
>to all information sources and
>look at past trends.
>
>I am estimating about the same
>amount of folks jumping in
>with more than 6 points
>and a few more with
>applying with 5 and 4
>points respectively. 21 received
>a lot of press this
>year in huntin fool and
>other sources. The gunnison
>basin and eagle are still
>getting negative press and 21
>second is out of reach
>of most.
>
>So I estimate 8 to 10
>folks applying with more than
>6 points and about 18
>to 20 folks applying with
>5 points. This will
>leave very few tags for
>folks if any for people
>with 4 points.
>
>If you look at past impacts
>of attention to units you
>will see that the impact
>on drawing is huge.
>I am not trying to
>rain on anyone's parade, but
>it is clear to me
>after years of pouring over
>numbers that what happened last
>year is not a true
>indicator of this year, especially
>in Colorado.
>
>I guess I will see how
>close I come on this.
> Most of my friends
>think I am sick but
>I come pretty close on
>estimates every year.
>
>Rich


Rich,

This means me you and Dean should apply for Nevada?

LC

 

[HillbillyNnevada]

I agree with that assessment. I nearly pulled the trigger on this hunt myself this year with 7 points just because I want out of the point game. I would rather deer hunt every year. However, I ended up choosing a unit other than 30.

 

[rmanwill]

Hey Rich. I agree with the assessment also. Have been watching the over all draw odds in colorado and numerous other states. Seen the same thing and agree with you. Last year Colorado seems to have had a big "Fool factor" in Colorado(maybe because of the earliest seasons that can be expected for a few years, due to the way the dates fall).

There is always the point creep, due to point only applications, people changing units because of the internet information on other units and success as you mentioned and a few just wanting out of the point game.

All said I agree with the your assessment. All we can do is continue to research, apply, hoefully have some good draws come our way occassionally and keep hunting.

Talk to you soon Rich and best of luck in the draws this year.

 

[lostinOregon]

Lindsay, I am applying for NV tonight and thinking hard about all early seasons. I have nothing from the 1st of October until the 20th of October so it would work perfectly. I wish I was wrong with the odds but Nevada late season is a lottery ticket.

Rick, you need the luck buddy, SJ elk is in your future.

Good luck to all,

Rich

 

[MuskegMan]

You guys are doomin' and gloomin' me. I have a fair understanding of point creep and the fact that last years odds will be optimistic going into this year's draw.

 

[dszymo]

I believe the big jump in points for 2011 was caused by the later hunting dates for the 2nd season.

 

[mapasolution]

Hey mountainmac, I sent you a PM.

mapasolution.blogspot.com