Wildlife Officials Predict Good Year for Deer Hunt - Article on Mule Deer Numbers

[huntfishall1]

http://www.newsbf.com/sports/201408/02hunt.html

 

[dz]

That is what I would say if my boss said if we don't sell all of the NR tags your job will go away.

DZ

 

[Deerlove]

so true

 

[OLDHORNHUNTER]

must be just a FLUKE !!! just shortly after F&G announces dropping the price of leftover non resident deer & elk tags !! ALL OF A SUDDEN our deer & elk herds have flourished !! Not to mention there are a few fires burning or the fact that there isn't hardly any water anywhere !! here are some interesting facts taken off of the F&G harvest reports !! according to F&G in unit 39 in 2012 there were 9187 hunters that took 2265 deer BUT in 2013 11067 hunters ONLY managed to take 2068 deer ???? hmmm these abundant critters must have been those that got away !! 39 elk harvest 2012 517 2013 405 ?? unit 31 interesting stats in a unit that the resident game warden says should be closed down to rebuild the deer herds that was said to me & 3 other hunters face to face 3 years ago showed in 2012 1267 hunters taking 447 deer BUT 2013 the number of hunters jumped to 1775 & took 516 deer 508 more hunters managed to take another 69 deer !! there is some thing WRONG with this picture !! heres is another interesting fact this EXTRA tag price drop comes shortly after F&G gets their Asses raked over the coals for screwing up the 1st drawing !! Now of course this is just a COINICENDCE !! right

 

[huntin50]

Prediction is the key word. Pay money now, the deer herd is good. I hope the deer herd is making progress. I think they need to do more aggresive predator management along with good weather.

 

[Pooner]

Oh the doom and gloom of monster muleys. You guys sure must be negative people all the time. They should have a great season this year. Maybe you should look at the island Park zone where they surveyed deer last year and have never counted that many deer. I would imagine someone is going to say those numbers are fabricated. I have seen lots of deer and several amazing deer. I am excited for the up coming season.

 

[destroyer350]

If they'd actually let you see the numbers of yester year you'd take back "never counted that many deer" statement. I've been to meeting years ago when they did bring up the numbers of days gone by and the f&g discounted what was counted then to make their current at the time numbers look better. The warden at the time got stomped on for bring up and out old numbers. How old are you?

 

[Pooner]

Destroyer, I can assure you I am old enough to know what I am talking about. And these numbers are higher than anything they have counted, even the "golden years counts". We have had three mild winters in several parts of the state. Weather is the biggest uncontrollable factor affecting mule deer numbers. But I am sure you will tell me I am to young and dumb to know better.

 

[OLDHORNHUNTER]

Pooner glad your side of the state or the Island park area is doing good !! the western side units 31 32 32A 39 40 41 & 42 are NOT by NO means !! I am in the field at least twice a week & have many many people ranchers & farmers that I know in these units along with lots of other hunters that are in the field as well & the deer counts are DOWN !! I was just reading an article on gohunt.com just happened to be titled western mule deer decline !! The article was on CO WY MT UT AZ & NV everyone of these states show deer #s down counted by their F&G departments !!! FUNNY that Idaho is the ONLY state that has a HUGE deer boom !! AND here is my # 1 concern !! why after all the years of below normal deer counts by our own F&G people are they opening the state up for people to take 2 deer why not allow these ABUNDANT herd #s to continue too increase ?????

 

[destroyer350]

>Destroyer, I can assure you I
>am old enough to know
>what I am talking about.
>And these numbers are higher
>than anything they have counted,
>even the "golden years counts".
>We have had three mild
>winters in several parts of
>the state. Weather is the
>biggest uncontrollable factor affecting mule
>deer numbers. But I am
>sure you will tell me
>I am to young and
>dumb to know better.

Sorry, you have no idea what counts in the past were, only what they tell you and obviously you were not here to see what it was like in the past. "Ever "is a long time. My boy had the 60-2 tag last year, it was a pretty sorry hunt. So I'll have to call BS on their counts. I've also watched and helped with deer counts in the past, accuracy was not what was important.

 

[Deerlove]

I can't help myself "Show me the money!!!" I feel better now.

 

[dz]

I have a friend that flew for F&G in the 80's. Even back then they would fly the draw low on the first pass then half way up on the second pass then at the top on the third pass. He said he would watch the same deer being counted three times as they would run up the hill from the helicopter. Then they would take the count of one draw and times it by the number of draws in the drainage and call that the count. They knew where the herds were bunched and only flew those draws for the count. So even in the "Big" years they were messing with the numbers. They have always been chasing the dollar. Wouldn't it be nice if they only sold as many deer tags as the heard could take? And managed it according to the animals and not the budget.

DZ

 

[Pooner]

Once again the doom and gloom. Destroyer I hunted the same area for elk last year. Saw tons of bucks several in the 200 inch class. One of those was confirmed as we found sheds to it. That being said I saw lots of 170 class deer. Your son probably shot a good deer but you know the hunting was just to hard. I have been on their survey flights and they are accurate. Maybe in the 80s they weren't perfect but the methods now are very precise. Why would biologists lie about the numbers. I am sure you will say to sell more tags, but that is not their job. Their job is to monitor wildlife. I won't argue that deer in the west aren't where they were. I guess all you guys who don't think they numbers are good can sit out and not hunt for a few years. As far as the two tags go, I have been buying them for several years personally. I sometimes kill 1 deer, sometimes 0, but never 2 deer.

 

[destroyer350]

My son didn't kill a deer, didn't see a buck over 150 in 25 days of hunting high, low and in between let alone big deer numbers, so I'll call BS again. f&g counting methods are not accurate from what I've seen as of 3 yrs ago here or in Utah, so I'll stick with what I've seen. 200 in. is a pretty easy number to throw out there, but not so easy to prove, I'm not going to say one couldn't be found out there, because I've got to hold a few in years past, not sheds, getting the big eye is a common occurrence. Precise, hardly.

 

[huntin50]

Poooner, "I saw several in the 200 inch range." There are very few places on earth that you see several 200 inch bucks. Is that a stretch?

 

[OLDHORNHUNTER]

if u flew with F&G on these flights than u surely know they are NOT accurate !! in unit 31 .. 5 years ago on part of the winter range 8 different people watched & counted off & on for over 3 weeks a gathered herd of elk on private property less than 400 yards off a main road the count was over 200 head give or take 2 or 3 by all 8 people !! F&Gs local warden stopped & counted the same herd with his binos & spotting scope 2 different times his count ready for this accuracy !!! WAS 88 animals total !! the same unit 4 years ago the new local warden told 4 different hunters at a check station off Rock Creek road he had been there since day light counted 29 rigs !! ONE out of 29 reported seeing A BUCK !! he stated that the unit needed to be closed or limited to buck only 4 point or better for a couple of years to try & bring the herds back !! when asked by these hunters why F&G didn't close it than his answer was that BOISE HEAD QUARTERS DID NOT WANT TO !!! because of the recent change in unit 22 to 2 point only !! the biggest population area for hunters needed some alternative areas to hunt !!!!!! this same warden told us his spring winter & fall counts were so low !!! so IF their job is too monitor animals than WHY don't they ??? because they work for a department that is funded by liscense & tag sales !!!!

 

[Pooner]

You know you guys are right. The world is coming to an end. No more animals. Rumors are always truth. We might as well take up knitting. Sorry for not going along with your pessimistic view points.

 

[Pooner]

Oh and yes I understand 200 is an easy number to throw out. I have proof the one scored 200 and the other night have been a bit under but I can't prove it for certain. My apologies guys.

 

[idelkslayer]

I recently posted this in another thread that headed down this same road:

Here are some numbers for average number of deer (MD and WT)killed by hunters in Idaho during various periods:

1961-1970: 68,369 (peak 77,087; Low 56,438)
1971-1980: 43,234 (peak 54,014; Low 25,427)
1981-1987: 52,514 (peak 66,400; Low 42,600)
1988-1990: 83,166 (peak 95,200; Low 72,100)
1991 harvest was 69,100 and began to decline bottoming out at 38,600 in 1997.
2000-2010: 47,510 (peak 54,200; Low 42,189)

This is the number of deer killed a much easier number to solidify than aerial counts.

I will withhold my own interpretation and see how you guys read this.

 

[destroyer350]

LAST EDITED ON Aug-05-14 AT 06:10PM (MST)[p]One problem with your numbers through all but the last few years, NO person from f&g ever asked me or any of my family or friends that I know of if we harvested a deer or not, so you tell me how they get their numbers, during a hugh majority of those segments of harvest when they didn't ask every hunter if they harvested or not. Therefore in my humble opinion those numbers are unreliable. I hear 200 and 400 threw out there every year, even after they do kill one and they're dead, that is until the tape gets pulled out, then there's always lots of stuttering, 99% of hunters get the big eye, ground shrink is more like it!

 

[Pooner]

Destroyer, I know all to well about those numbers. I am yet to see a 400 inch bull. But if you knew me you would know I seldom over judge. I look at Los of animals. Like I said I have verified proof one was 200 and the other buck was similar. But you would have to trust me and I doubt you would do that. I could even post a picture but then it would would call something else was a myth. Happy hunting is fall hope you guys find a big one. A big one that "doesn't" exist.

 

[OLDHORNHUNTER]

Pooner didn't mean to ruffle your feathers what I am sayin is TRUE based on the west side of the state the areas I have hunted for the past 30 years !! areas I trap & ride & horn hunt & on & on actual hands on in the field info by myself & 100s of other sportsmen ranchers farmers & of course our very own Highly trusted & regarded F&G people !! I dont doubt that there are areas in the state that have good deer & elk herd #s !! WHY does F&G have to lie about it to the actual people that are in the field hunting these animals & seeing 1st hand the actual numbers of animals !!! And they themselves post the harvest info available for all of us to see take for instance unit 39 deer in 2012 9187 hunters killed 2265 animals BUT in 2013 11067 hunters only killed 2068 animals !! How is that units herd increasing ?? 2012 & 2013 were included in these Mild winters they are talking about I hope the area u hunt has banner #s for u & yours to hunt I myself think it is high time F&G does what WE pay them to do & that is in your own words MANAGE THE ANIMALS NOT THE HUNTERS !!!

 

[destroyer350]

Pooner, is it possible that there are 200 in bucks out there? Yeah, I get to see the proof on a regular basis. Not at all saying it's not possible. My problem is your statements that the f&g had "highest all time deer counts", "more than the golden age", like I said earlier, you can't be old enough to have seen what decent deer numbers are, nothing against ya but that's a mouth full.

I'll agree that deer numbers are better than what they were in the last couple of years because of the winters, which is good, but like OHH said, what the hell are we doing now that numbers are on an up swing, giving out even more opportunity? Whether f&g or hunters want to believe it or not, harvest by hunters matter as much as harvest by predators or road kill or winter kill, why do they dump more pressure on the resource. Unbelievable that they could find more opportunity, but they did!

elkslayer, I'd still like to know how f&g were able to obtain accurate harvest numbers during those 45yrs when they didn't take the time to survey actual hunters on whether they harvested or not!!

 

[destroyer350]

elkslayer.....ELKSLAYERRRRRRRRRRR.......are you out there!!!!

 

[Pooner]

You didn't ruffle any feathers. And I apologize for the grammar on that last post. I was writing it on my phone between stop lights. I just feel like all we hear on here about is the doom and gloom. Like to keep things positive every once in a while.

 

[destroyer350]

Poon, I have absolutely nothing against what you're saying or you, just disagree with the numbers thing. The fact that one 200in buck or possibly two survived the winter and bred some does is encouraging!!!!

BUT, I still want to hear from elkslayer about the harvest numbers for all the past years!!!!!

 

[mickeymouseoutfitters]

That just makes me hurt, all over. I am confident that with a coordinated effort we could take every buck off of any unit we wanted.









________________________________________
I'm not one for telling my grandson how big of turd I had to pinch off from having to eat so much meat. I want to give him the trophies that hang from my wall and tell him the unforgettable experience that came with each and every one.

 

[idelkslayer]

If you go back to my first post you will see that I offered no explanation nor any methodology for the harvest numbers, I just put up the numbers. I left the interpretation to each individual, predictably it changed no minds that were already decided.

It's called statistics, and numbers very rarely lie. If you take a large enough sample and create a trend line you can calculate how well it represents the whole population. You can then state within a 95% confidence what the actual harvest is. Historically most of these surveys were conducted through check stations during hunting season and phone surveys. Today we also have self reporting online. The IDFG knows how many licenses and tags are sold, they survey a large enough portion of the hunting population through one of the three methods mentioned above and extrapolate that to estimate the total number of animals killed.

Is it an exact number?, no; Were the aerial counts over the last 50 years exact numbers?, no.

But if we are going to complain let's put it in perspective. Prior to the 1950's most of our modern day mule deer range had very few deer. Most areas were closed to hunting and when hunting was allowed the seasons were generally 2-3 days long. Hunters were happy to take home any deer. Seems to me that we don't have it all that bad.

Take into account that there were fewer hunters during the "glory years" and of course it would feel like there were more deer then than now. Mind you I'm not saying there weren't more deer but I think at least some of it is perception. There certainly were more large bucks back in the day but part of that may be because there were more people willing to tag out on a doe and leave more bucks to survive into older age classes.

I don't profess to have all the answers and no I wasn't around during the 60's, 70's or 80's, but my father and grandfather were and I believe their stories but I also read the history and study the recorded data. Even if the truth lies somewhere in between I still think we've got it pretty good.

 

[Duck0Slayer]

so much negativity, unreal, I have a friend that drew the super tag for Deer, it's August and he has 2 in 39, 1 over 200", a couple down in 40 on private ranch in the 200" range, he's taken 2 in the 190" range on general 39 tags, I will post what he get's, he might even be on this site, who know's....... I don't see a huge decline in numbers, but i'm not a one too ride around in a truck/atv with my kid too shoot a deer, some I see actually walk 300-500 yards off the road, i've hunted about 10 units in this state and I see the same thing in all of those units, funny thing that people talk about the "good ol days", and the only reason they do is cuz they didn't have too leave there trucks/vehicles too kill a mature buck, but I bet if you check the U.S. population at that time compared too know you will see a very large difference, it's not our management that's killing the deer it's our human nature too destroy everything including ourselves and the place's we live, we all forget that there are other "things' we share the planet with, we all need too be better sportsman and conservationists too help fix the problems instead of sitting on a forum and B!tchN about what needs too be done, go too school, get a degree, make a frick'n difference.... you can give me all the crap you can spew out of your keyboard, don't really care, I shoot a deer, elk, and antelope almost every year and usually go too wyoming and put 4 antelope in my freezer, I hunt for food and enjoyment, too many worried about how big horns are! the foundation of hunting is too enjoy it and put food on the table for your family, not too see who's is bigger! flop it out and will see who's is bigger...... I don't need a deer too do that for me..... my rant is over for now...
Matt

 

[OLDHORNHUNTER]

right on I just wish our F&G idiots would actually stop trying to feed us such a HUGE spoonful of Crap on herd counts !! they have put all the units surrounding Boise in a world of hurt !! they can not keep trying to manage for Trophy Bucks in areas that were once the Hot spots !! Heres an Idea for F&G try managing EVERY unit for its best potential !!

 

[UGAhunter]

The ID elk slayer makes an interesting point. With the modern societal pressures to hunt only for trophies, it puts a LOT of pressure on the older age class of bucks. It's important to remember that hunters hunt for a wide myriad of reasons. Some for meat, some for bones, some for the bloodsport, some for the chase. I love how excited Ted Nugent gets when he slays a doe. My 16 year old son would NEVER kill a doe or a small buck. My 12 yo son just wants to kill his first deer, doesn't care much what it is, and I think that is OK!

IDFG does a pretty good job managing the state so there is a balance of opportunity for every type of hunter. It is a hard job to balance all these interests!

 

[destroyer350]

Elkslayer, didn't know if I'd lost ya there, while I appreciate your response, 95% confidence in the way harvest counts and herd counts were done in the past is not something I'm confident at all with. I know to many hunters (in fact none) that were ever asked about their hunting activity. At best it's just a guess, same with herd counts from those I've participated in . The way f&g do harvest counts today is far better than in the past, so I'll give'm one.

I get a kick out of when a conversation about deer herd NUMBERS is started all these guys come out of the wood work ranting and whining about trophy hunters and get'in off the road. I have no idea how you hunt and you have no idea how I hunt. Funny thing is, I know of 3 guaranteed gross over 200in bucks killed in the last 2yrs, take a guess how they were killed,(pause) you got it, drive by shootings. Gotta love them late hunts!!!!

 

[idelkslayer]

95% confidence does not apply to the way the counts and estimates were done but is a statistical measurement of how accurately sample data represents the total population of data. All it means is that when IDFG wants to know the harvest results of 10,000 hunters they can survey 1,000 hunters create a trend line that matches the data with 95% confidence and then used that trend line to estimate the results they would get from surveying the remaining 9,000.

The methods of how aerial counts are conducted and whether we believe they are accurate is a completley different discussion. That is why I choose to look at harvest numbers instead. When IDFG sets up a game check station, there is either a dead deer in the back of a hunters pickup or there isn't. It is still an estimate when they take that success rate and apply it to the total number of deer tags sold to estimate total deer harvested.

 

[OLDHORNHUNTER]

I have to jump in here !! the talk about the check station counts is an interesting subject !! take for instance unit 31 I have only seen one check station there in the last 20 plus years !! one of the areas I hunt has NEVER had a CS on it !! last year I counted from the top of the hill I was on 27 rigs going up this same road in aprox 35 minutes !! F&G has a check station every year up on Midvale Hill !! I came thru that check station 3 times in one week here 3 years ago !! they counted me & 2 of my boys all 3 times !! so we were 9 hunters we did not have any deer {we also don't shoot does or dinks} NOT one time did any one of the check stations people ask me where we hunted what we saw or even for hunting liscenses !! yet somewhere they put us down as a stat was it for 31 32 22 32A or one of the units further north !!! 2 years ago I went & hunted the last 2 weekends in unit 43 I called & spoke with F&G & asked how the deer #s were looking I was told NOT GOOD another guy I know called & spoke with the same people a few days later & was told the same story !! BUT less than 2 months after the season had closed F&G release a news update on how Next years herd counts was looking Great ??? apparently we have some Physics working in those offices aw well !! But the 3s they put out for their Harvest statics Don't Add up to the Banner year they claimed in fact the #s were down from the previous year !!

 

[idelkslayer]

In my 20 years of hunting Idaho I had never been through a check station until last year. I had never seen one in any of the areas I grew up hunting. I have always completed the mandatory reports but had never been checked or been called during their random phone surveys.

When I was checked at a roadside station last year they asked the standard questions about which units and how many days in each unit, which weapon, etc. They checked my elk, took some measurements checked my tag and license and that was all.

Oldhornhunter, in your case I hope they would cross reference license numbers when they compile the data in order to show that you were checked more than once, otherwise it would skew the data and introduce inaccuracies. But even if it did, it would skew it towards a lower harvest estimate. (if you went through once with a deer then it would be a 100% harvest rate, going through 4 times and only once with a deer would be a 25% harvest rate).

 

[destroyer350]

LAST EDITED ON Aug-07-14 AT 06:19PM (MST)[p]I understand how statistics work and still believe it is nothing more than a guess and would not depend on the numbers as anywhere near fact. The way it's done now i think is better as long as the info is given correctly, far larger sample at least. Although I do know some that have never turned in their info.

The only reason I jumped into the conversation in the first place was the comment "they have never counted that many deer". BS

 

[OLDHORNHUNTER]

when we used to hunt 22 back in the 80s & 90s there was always a check station off the main road outside of Council they always did like u said checked animals tags & lisc for them to base their info off of these check stations data is inconclusive & half Assed at best !! & like I said not one time did anyone at that Midvale hill cs ask for anything other than deer or no deer & how many hunters DONE & gone !! I know we have had mild winters the last 3 years in a row across most of the state but that really doesn't mean that our deer herds have Exploded !! & if they have why all of a sudden does F&G want us to harvest more per hunter ???