HornedToad
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LAST EDITED ON Nov-08-09 AT 07:12AM (MST)[p]Wyoming has posted its Preference Points (PP) going into the 2010 Draw. The analysis below is for Non-resident Bighorn Sheep.
Attrition - The number of applicants dropping-out (attrition) increased in 2009 to 1,156. These were replaced by 967 new applicants. The total number of applicants going into 2010 stands at 7,045, compared to 7,284 going into 2009. As would be expected, the majority of the 1,156 attrition occured in the lower PP brackets, from 1 to 9. Attrition rates in the higher PP brackets, from 10 to 14, remained low. For example, of 184 applicants with 10 PP for the 2009 draw, 177 remain, now with 11 PP, for the 2010 draw. Since 1 applicant with 10 PP drew a tag in 2009, the reduction from 184 to 177 implies that only 6 dropped out. That is about a 3% attrition rate, despite the reality that those in this PP class still have, on average, about 10 years until 2019 to draw a tag.
Year to Draw - I have a model that predicts the MEDIAN year to draw for each PP class going into the 2010 draw. This is not the first year to draw, nor the last, but rather is a projected middle year, or median. Half of all applicants in each PP class who draw will do better, and half will do worse. (Others might have different estimates... please don't attack the model... it is only an approximation based on a number of assumptions... if you have a different estimate, let's hear it).
PP / Year / Change from 2009
01 / 2042 / na
02 / 2040 / -2
03 / 2038 / -2
04 / 2037 / -2
05 / 2035 / -2
06 / 2033 / -2
07 / 2032 / -1
08 / 2028 / -2
09 / 2026 / -1
10 / 2022 / -1
11 / 2019 / 0
12 / 2017 / 0
13 / 2014 / -1
14 / 2013 / +1
15 / 2011 / +1
The above model continues to assume a significant attrition rate, as more applicants drop out after realizing that, for their $100 annual PP fee, they will likely never draw before they are too old to hunt (or drop out for various other reasons). For example, going into 2010 there are 176 applicants with 11 PP. The model predicts that 90 of these will eventually draw, but 86 will drop out... almost a 50% attrition rate. For the 549 applicants with 10 PP, 200 will draw, but 349, or about 64%, will drop out. Obviously, if attrition rates are less than predicted, the actual number of years to draw could be much greater than the estimate predicted by the model.
It is always interesting to review the change over the years in the number of MAX Pt. applicants, who began building points in 1995 and will have 15 PP going into the 2010 draw.
Year / MAX no. / %Change
1995 / 1,421 / na
1996 / 1,086 / -24%
1997 / 848 / -22%
1998 / 741 / -13%
1999 / 632 / -15%
2000 / 537 / -15%
2001 / 455 / -15%
2002 / 397 / -13%
2003 / 330 / -17%
2004 / 282 / -15%
2005 / 236 / -16%
2006 / 191 / -19%
2007 / 139 / -27%
2008 / 93 / -33%
2009 / 55 / -41%
2010 / 45 / -18%
It is somewhat puzzling that the attrition from 2009 to 2010 was only 10 applicants, or 18% (8 drew permits and 2 dropped-out). Perhaps these final holdouts from the "Class of 1995" have become even more picky in their area choices. Clearly, most of these MAX Pt. applicants could draw in 2010, if they spread their applications across all areas, but with selectivity bias favoring the best units, or with a continuing deferrals of draw applications (only 13 of the 55 Max Pt. holders submitted draw applications in 2009... 42 applied for PP only) it is any guess as to how many years will pass by before the last member of this storied class will fade into the sunset.
Good luck in the 2010 Draw!
HT
Attrition - The number of applicants dropping-out (attrition) increased in 2009 to 1,156. These were replaced by 967 new applicants. The total number of applicants going into 2010 stands at 7,045, compared to 7,284 going into 2009. As would be expected, the majority of the 1,156 attrition occured in the lower PP brackets, from 1 to 9. Attrition rates in the higher PP brackets, from 10 to 14, remained low. For example, of 184 applicants with 10 PP for the 2009 draw, 177 remain, now with 11 PP, for the 2010 draw. Since 1 applicant with 10 PP drew a tag in 2009, the reduction from 184 to 177 implies that only 6 dropped out. That is about a 3% attrition rate, despite the reality that those in this PP class still have, on average, about 10 years until 2019 to draw a tag.
Year to Draw - I have a model that predicts the MEDIAN year to draw for each PP class going into the 2010 draw. This is not the first year to draw, nor the last, but rather is a projected middle year, or median. Half of all applicants in each PP class who draw will do better, and half will do worse. (Others might have different estimates... please don't attack the model... it is only an approximation based on a number of assumptions... if you have a different estimate, let's hear it).
PP / Year / Change from 2009
01 / 2042 / na
02 / 2040 / -2
03 / 2038 / -2
04 / 2037 / -2
05 / 2035 / -2
06 / 2033 / -2
07 / 2032 / -1
08 / 2028 / -2
09 / 2026 / -1
10 / 2022 / -1
11 / 2019 / 0
12 / 2017 / 0
13 / 2014 / -1
14 / 2013 / +1
15 / 2011 / +1
The above model continues to assume a significant attrition rate, as more applicants drop out after realizing that, for their $100 annual PP fee, they will likely never draw before they are too old to hunt (or drop out for various other reasons). For example, going into 2010 there are 176 applicants with 11 PP. The model predicts that 90 of these will eventually draw, but 86 will drop out... almost a 50% attrition rate. For the 549 applicants with 10 PP, 200 will draw, but 349, or about 64%, will drop out. Obviously, if attrition rates are less than predicted, the actual number of years to draw could be much greater than the estimate predicted by the model.
It is always interesting to review the change over the years in the number of MAX Pt. applicants, who began building points in 1995 and will have 15 PP going into the 2010 draw.
Year / MAX no. / %Change
1995 / 1,421 / na
1996 / 1,086 / -24%
1997 / 848 / -22%
1998 / 741 / -13%
1999 / 632 / -15%
2000 / 537 / -15%
2001 / 455 / -15%
2002 / 397 / -13%
2003 / 330 / -17%
2004 / 282 / -15%
2005 / 236 / -16%
2006 / 191 / -19%
2007 / 139 / -27%
2008 / 93 / -33%
2009 / 55 / -41%
2010 / 45 / -18%
It is somewhat puzzling that the attrition from 2009 to 2010 was only 10 applicants, or 18% (8 drew permits and 2 dropped-out). Perhaps these final holdouts from the "Class of 1995" have become even more picky in their area choices. Clearly, most of these MAX Pt. applicants could draw in 2010, if they spread their applications across all areas, but with selectivity bias favoring the best units, or with a continuing deferrals of draw applications (only 13 of the 55 Max Pt. holders submitted draw applications in 2009... 42 applied for PP only) it is any guess as to how many years will pass by before the last member of this storied class will fade into the sunset.
Good luck in the 2010 Draw!
HT