I have a draw odds question for all of you sheep fanatics. I have 8 preference points right now before buying this years sheep point. Given the current structure how long will it be before I draw. I'm 40 years old. Am I just throwing away money at this point playing this game? I would love to see the breakdown before I send them another $100.00 for nothing. Many Thanks for all that respond. - Panhandle -
Wyoming Sheep Points?
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littlebighorn
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The answer to your question depends alot on the area you apply for and several other "unknown" variables.
How many other people are going to give up putting in, etc.
No one knows the answer for sure, but I suspect you will be putting in for many, many years before you are guaranteed a tag.
How many other people are going to give up putting in, etc.
No one knows the answer for sure, but I suspect you will be putting in for many, many years before you are guaranteed a tag.
If you just do points only, you willbe pretty old. But you could draw random.... Depends on how important a sheep is. Really, $100 does not buy a lot anymore. Might not even fill your tank, depending on what you drive. I'm sure the years of $100 fees will seem like noise if you do pull the tag.
DonVathome
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My wild guess is 15-20 years based in past odds etc.I have one more point and will stay in. I got lucky and drew a CO bow sheep tag this year, no sheep, grazed a nice ram after 16 days of hitting it hard. Sheep were in timber and very random. Wanted sheep bad and wait until I pull another tag will be loooong I expect.
HornedToad
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LAST EDITED ON Sep-24-08 AT 08:38PM (MST)[p]For what its worth, my formula (non-Res) says:
Pts. going into 2008 Draw / Avg. years to draw after 2008 / Year Drawn
13 pts - 1 yr - 2009
12 pts - 4 yrs - 2012
11 pts - 9 yrs - 2017
10 pts - 13 yrs - 2021
9 pts - 19 yrs - 2027
8 pts - 29 yrs - 2037
So, for a 40 year old going into the 2008 Draw with 8 pts., the average draw (some will do better, some will do worse) will come in the year 2037, at the age of 69.
For anyone with fewer than 9 points, meaning that they did not begin applying until the preference point system was first put into place in 2000, the chance of being drawn in the Preference Point draw is slim... and the chance of being drawn while still young enough to get up the mountain to the rams, is slimmer still.
Most guys with fewer than 9 points will either die, or get too old to climb, long before they have a chance in the Pref. Pt. draw. For this reason, thousands have dropped out since the price went to $100. For the odds to make any sense at all, many hundreds more will have to drop out (which, logically, should take place... but who ever said that sheep hunters are logical?) My guess is that most will remain in, hoping that it will be the "other guy" who finally wises up and drops out.
I begin applying for my son, who is now 25, in 1998 when he was 15. He had 10 pts. going into the 2008 draw, and by my formula should draw in 13 years when he is 38. I am 55, and had 12 pts. going into 2008. I should draw when I am 59. On my last sheep hunt, in 2001, I was 48, and thought that the climbing was damn tough then (I was in particularly steep country). There is no way I will be in the same level of physical conditioning at 59 that I was at 48. But am I dropping out? No... not after all this time. I expect that I am fairly typical in that respect. If I'm lucky, I'll go at 59... and do my best.
Good luck!
HornedToad
Pts. going into 2008 Draw / Avg. years to draw after 2008 / Year Drawn
13 pts - 1 yr - 2009
12 pts - 4 yrs - 2012
11 pts - 9 yrs - 2017
10 pts - 13 yrs - 2021
9 pts - 19 yrs - 2027
8 pts - 29 yrs - 2037
So, for a 40 year old going into the 2008 Draw with 8 pts., the average draw (some will do better, some will do worse) will come in the year 2037, at the age of 69.
For anyone with fewer than 9 points, meaning that they did not begin applying until the preference point system was first put into place in 2000, the chance of being drawn in the Preference Point draw is slim... and the chance of being drawn while still young enough to get up the mountain to the rams, is slimmer still.
Most guys with fewer than 9 points will either die, or get too old to climb, long before they have a chance in the Pref. Pt. draw. For this reason, thousands have dropped out since the price went to $100. For the odds to make any sense at all, many hundreds more will have to drop out (which, logically, should take place... but who ever said that sheep hunters are logical?) My guess is that most will remain in, hoping that it will be the "other guy" who finally wises up and drops out.
I begin applying for my son, who is now 25, in 1998 when he was 15. He had 10 pts. going into the 2008 draw, and by my formula should draw in 13 years when he is 38. I am 55, and had 12 pts. going into 2008. I should draw when I am 59. On my last sheep hunt, in 2001, I was 48, and thought that the climbing was damn tough then (I was in particularly steep country). There is no way I will be in the same level of physical conditioning at 59 that I was at 48. But am I dropping out? No... not after all this time. I expect that I am fairly typical in that respect. If I'm lucky, I'll go at 59... and do my best.
Good luck!
HornedToad
HornedToad
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LAST EDITED ON Sep-25-08 AT 03:32AM (MST)[p]In the post above, I state that "the preference point system was first put into place in 2000". Of course, what I meant to state was "the preference point ONLY system (for $7 per pt. at that time) was first put into place in 2000".
The WY pref. pt. system was put into place in 1995, but up until 2000, it was necessary to put up the full cost of the permit with the application, which would then be refunded on rejection. There was no "points only" system through 1999. This served as a significant barrier to entry for many applicants. Once the $7 pref. pt. only system was put into place in 2000, the number of applications soared.
Sorry for the mistake.
Also, it is my expectation that the above projected "years until drawn" is conservative, based on a belief that attrition rates (meaning those who drop out for reasons other than having been drawn) should pick up as the high-point applicant pool continues to age. But if that is going to be the case, there is little evidence for it so far. Most applicants with 9 or more points have stubbornly continued to remain in the draw, even with the increased cost to $100 for a preference point. Only time will tell.
HornedToad
The WY pref. pt. system was put into place in 1995, but up until 2000, it was necessary to put up the full cost of the permit with the application, which would then be refunded on rejection. There was no "points only" system through 1999. This served as a significant barrier to entry for many applicants. Once the $7 pref. pt. only system was put into place in 2000, the number of applications soared.
Sorry for the mistake.
Also, it is my expectation that the above projected "years until drawn" is conservative, based on a belief that attrition rates (meaning those who drop out for reasons other than having been drawn) should pick up as the high-point applicant pool continues to age. But if that is going to be the case, there is little evidence for it so far. Most applicants with 9 or more points have stubbornly continued to remain in the draw, even with the increased cost to $100 for a preference point. Only time will tell.
HornedToad
chewyman55
Active Member
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Oh man...I think I just got depressed by reading that
I am 26 with 11 points so it's not looking like I will be in there chasing em around during my "prime." Hopefully everyone else "wises up" and drops out right?! Thanks for the insight.
I am 26 with 11 points so it's not looking like I will be in there chasing em around during my "prime." Hopefully everyone else "wises up" and drops out right?! Thanks for the insight.
littlebighorn
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HT
That's some impressive number crunching if you are accurate!
Are you an Actuary?
That's some impressive number crunching if you are accurate!
Are you an Actuary?
W
Warren
Guest
At four points, I think I'll drop out. I may put in for the random draw on years that I have the money to loan out.
RamDreamer
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Warren,
Just remember that even though you might try to draw a "random" tag, Wyoming will keep the $100 preference point fee out of your refund if you do not draw. Participation in their preference point program is mandatory for all that attempt to draw a sheep tag. You may not "opt out".
Just remember that even though you might try to draw a "random" tag, Wyoming will keep the $100 preference point fee out of your refund if you do not draw. Participation in their preference point program is mandatory for all that attempt to draw a sheep tag. You may not "opt out".
HornedToad
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It would be interesting to know whether the WY sheep outfitters have been experiencing an increase in the average age of their non-res hunter clients over the past several years. Since the preference point system has an intended purpose of allocating more tags to those who have been applying the longest, this should result in an older age-group of hunters than if the draw were totally random.
Taken to an extreme, eventually most successful applicants drawing tags will be those who simply have outlasted everyone else. It is interesting to consider the impact on hunter success rates as these legions of geriatrics take to the hills. But that may serve WY G&F objectives. More hunters, with more fee income, for fewer rams taken off the mountain!
HornedToad
Taken to an extreme, eventually most successful applicants drawing tags will be those who simply have outlasted everyone else. It is interesting to consider the impact on hunter success rates as these legions of geriatrics take to the hills. But that may serve WY G&F objectives. More hunters, with more fee income, for fewer rams taken off the mountain!
HornedToad
Thanks for the numbers guys. I really appreciate everyone's time. I'M OUT!!!!! 8 points for sheep and moose. I'm out and I'll spend my money elswhere. I guess when I'm 70, if I make it that far, I'll probably be fishing with the grandkids. Great hunting this season to all. -Panhandle-
