10% NR Cap working as designed on Strip & Kaibab deer hunts!

DonMartin

DonMartin

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Well, I've checked over the lists for game management units 12A West (late) 13A and 13B and the 10% cap on NR's permits worked exactly as advertised.

And as I always predict, ALL the lucky NR's who got their tags in these premium units got them in the 20% max bonus point pool draw, thereby eliminating any chance for those without max points to have a chance to draw a tag.

The reason is simple, there are a lot more NR's than residents who have max bonus points for deer.

Here is how they went this year.

In Unit 12A West Late (hunt 1015) there were 175 tags offered. Under the 20% pass (max bonus point pool)the first 35 tags had to be issued to those with max bonus points. NR could and did in fact get 17 of those first 35 tags under the 10% rule). In fact they drew tag numbers 1,4,5,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,16,17,18,19,21,22, and 30.

In Unit 13A (hunt 1019)there were 55 tags offered. That meant the first 11 tags went out under the 20% pass rule. NR could get 10% of the total issued (55) so they could get a maximum of 5 permits.

They got tag numbers,1,2,3,4,5 and a guy who had bought a lifetime hunting license before he left Arizona got tag #12. (If you have a lifetime license and leave Arizona, you have to apply as a NR and pay those fees but are NOT under the 10% cap rule! Smart move, right?)

In Unit 13B (hunt number 1020) there were 85 tags issued. Under the 20% rule the first 17 tags would be issued to those in the max bonus point pool. Just 8 tags could be issued to NR's under the 10% cap rule.

Well the lucky NR's who drew got tag numbers 2,3,4,5,6,8,9 and 10. Another former Arizona resident who had the lifetime license drew tag 52 on a group application with his brother!

So for all those out there that claim that NR's can and do draw these premium tags WITHOUT maximum bonus points I say BULL!

Could it happen? Yep, it could IF Arizona residents "smoked" the draw, but in reality has it happened? Nope, and I buy the list every year to check it out.

As long as the maximum deer bonus point pool has a 2-1 or maybe even a 3-1 non-resident vs resident number, you NR's that don't have maximum bonus points aren't going to draw these tags!

I have already heard of one Arizona guide who is telling folks that two of his non-resident clients drew Strip (Unit 13B) tags with just 4 BP's. That is crap! Didn't happen! Only way it could is if they were former AZ residents who had the lifetime licenses, and the list shows there was just one of them.

Oh, the Flagstaff guys really "smoked" the draw when they pulled 11 tags. Kingman guys didn't do too bad either. They got 7 of those tags (my brother being one of them, and he had 7 bonus points)

Conversely, only 3 guys from Phoenix got tags....

Arizona residents can draw these premium with few points. One father/son combo from here had a total of 10 points between them. They applied as a group and drew a pair of 13B tags....

I had 8 bonus points and of course blanked..Oh well. Guess the computer looses the name "Martin" after picking one...

Maybe next year!

Anyway thought you all would be interested in knowing this information.

Don Martin
 
Thanks for the info, Don. I'm a NR that has six points. Do you have a ballpark as to how long it will take me to draw the Strip?
 
Warren:

I hate to be the bearer of bad tidings but under the current system I got to say--not in my lifetime--.

I've got the list around here somewhere that lists the number of people who have any given number of bonus points.

When the current max pool is empty, they'll drop down to the next number. I think only about 30-45 NR's a year are dropping out of the max pool (drawing tags, dropping dead or just saying forget it). Last I heard there were still over 200 left.

You are way down on the food chain for deer my friend.

My advice to you unless you are 20 years years old is to look for another hunt that has some decent opportunity for a good buck and try for that.

I and others have suggested to the department that they have one or two tags available to be drawn by ALL non-residents, regardless of how many bonus points they had.

My suggestion is to figure out a way take them out of the 10% pool so that they don't exceed the cap, but have just a couple available so guys like you aren't drawing to a completely dead hand.

I call them "carrot tags" kinda like putting a carrot in front of an old mule. He'll keep walking as long as he thinks he has a chance to get it.

You, and thousands of others NR's, will keep buying an Arizona hunting license and will apply for one or two tags, despite the astronomical odds.

I know that process is being looked at down the road, but who knows when it will happen?

Sorry,

Don
 
Don

Not being a person that gives up easily I have a question also. I'm 54. Have ten points, no safety point yet. I've heard some good and bad things about my prospects. Will I live long enough to draw a 13B tag?
 
Why not allow 50% of the NR 10% to be given for the max pool and the rest for the general draw? I know a lady who drew 13B two years in a row. Must be nice. I've got 8 points going into next year, hopefully the draw gods will like me by then.











It's Bush's fault!!!
 
Pruney,
Be careful what you ask for! Do you really want to know?
I'm the baggage in your application.
Lets not find a reason to shake me loose please...
 
Don,
Another question, if a resident and NR apply together on the same app, does the tag come from the NR pool? I know it does in CO, but what about AZ?







It's Bush's fault!!!
 
Don Thanks for the info. I always thought that was the way it would end up.This is a grandfather in/out rule. If you are a NonRes with max points and not to old you are grandfathered in and will get a tag eventually. However if you are over 30 and only have about 10 points you could try but in all likelihood will most likely never get this tag. Oh well I guess that is what the Residents or Game and Fish wanted. Too bad in my opinion.
I think hunting in general will look entirely different in the not to distant future.
 
Don, why do you really post these stats? Out right depressing to most of us. We need a new federal law over riding state control, so that all the outfitters can get more clients, hmmm! maybe that is it. Actually what I should be asking you is how much do you lose each year (estimated of course) with the design of this 20% cap. Or do you make more money with it? Just wondering how this effects the average outfitter, thanks.
 
I would GUESS it does not matter to outfitters - or helps them, same # of NR get tags, but guys with more points get them, guys with more points might think, heck I burned 13 points (or whatever it was) and figure might have to hire a guide for such a long awaited tag.

I do have to ask, how often are decent elk tags drawn by NR without max pnts? By decent I do not mean rut rifle, I mean a decent bow elk tag?

I have 6 points now and I am going for 11m, any idea what my chances are or how long I will have to wait? I think I can pull in 4 years at most.
 
Sremin I did not say it was the Residents fault. I said I guessed it was the result of what the Residents OR Game and Fish wanted. The change was made and I assume it had to come from the desires of one OR both of these possiblities. Who else?
 
Gee, must be something wrong with a system that hands out tags to those with the most points that have waited the longest. Sounds like the most fair system you could ask for.
 
LAST EDITED ON Aug-20-07 AT 03:25PM (MST)[p]Ok boys, I'm gonna try and answer the questions you pose.

Warren: Sorry about your bad luck, get the Hunter Ed point and try for the early Kaibab and/or one of the December Coues deer tags.

Overton: You got to take that Hunter Ed class! You can be in the game before I die!


Sremin: The 10% rule protects resident hunting privileges, as it should in my opinion. Not only is there a rule about the 10% cap, but now there is a state law that says no more than 10% of tags can go to NR's.

At the risk of starting some controversy here, I believe that resident sportsmen in every state should get the vast majority (90% works for me) of the big game tags. Let all the rest of us from other states fight and grovel for the remaining 10%.

When I apply in other states like Nevada and Utah, I fully expect to be tightly regulated for tags.

If you got 8 points and are a resident, you do have a chance at a 13B tag, if you're a NR, put a fork in 'ya, you're done!

Pruney: Sorry, no data purchased from G&F this year on Unit 9 archery. Do have Unit 10 archery info.

Sremin: If a NR and resident put in together the application is handled as a NR application as far as tags remaining go. For instance you and your brother, who is an AZ resident apply for a unit with 100 tags. Your brother is applicant A, you are applicant B.

It gets around where your application is picked. Computer looks and says that 10 NR tags have already been issued, but there are still 25 tags remaining. The entire application is pitched and you each get a bonus point.

IF your brother had applied alone and there were still 25 tags left, he gets one. IF YOU had applied alone, and the 10% cap was already filled, you also just get a bonus point.

If your application is picked and tag numbers do not exceed the 10% cap, then your tag comes out of the NR pool, while his comes out of the resident pool.

Buncoboy: The 10% cap hammers most guides. The reason? Their client base is made up of mostly NR's who are subject to this tight tag restriction. Some of the "Big Boys" might have such as huge client base that they always have clients that draw. Others aren't so lucky.

I got a pretty good client base and every year it is different. Some years I fill out pretty good, and never send out a piece of paper, other years my client's don't draw squat, then I'm out there with the rest of the guys trying to get an extra client or two to fill out my hunt schedule. Remember, we have no guarantees nor are there outfitter/guide tags issued in AZ. We are at the great computer's mercy!

I got a decent resident/NR base so I usually manage. One year I had 9 guides working for me, and had six archery elk hunters (4 NR and 2 resident) hunters in Unit 10.

This year, I'll hunt archery in Unit 10 with a friend and his son, as I have no booked hunts at this time.

I have said this many times though and this is my position when I speak about tag allocations, etc. I am a Arizona resident first, a sportsman second and a businessman third.

With that in mind you'll probably understand while I'm in favor of the restrictive 10% rule..If I can't make it in this business, then I'll go do something else, like sell RV's!!!!

Don Vathome: Most of my clients are blue collar types who save up for a special hunt that they know they'll get someday cause they've been in the system since Day 1. When I started AWO in 1987 all my clients were older than me. Now I seem to be the "old man" on a lot of the hunts.

There are some decent late bull elk hunts. Units 7, 9, 10 and 3A-3C come to mind. Last year we had three late hunters from Wisconsin in Unit 10. None had ever took an elk before. They took a 330 5 X 5, a 310 6 X 6 and a small 5 X 4.

I've got three more late Unit 10 hunters this year ( 2 resident 1 NR). With what I've been seeing so far as antler development is concerned on my scouting trips, on that late hunt I'd trip anything over 300 this year!

I don't have any Unit 11M data this year but what I'm seeing and hearing is that if you have double digits for bonus points, you're in the game!

Ok, fellas, hope I answered some of your questions...

Don Martin

"Listen fella, I don't make the rules, I just tell it like it is!" DM 2007
 
Great information, Don. Thanks for posting it and for giving staight answers for everyone's questions.
For those of you who may not know him, Don Martin is one of the guys who really gives back to the hunting community. He's been involved in hunter safety classes, Boquillas ranch cleanups, etc., and he generally keeps us informed about drawing information and G & F regulation debates.
 
Don,

My brother-in-law & I drew Unit 13B for deer in 2005 with 7 points as non-residents because the 10% cap on non-residents drawn was lifted. Do you ever think that this could happen again?
 
Don keep scouting unit 10 some more
I was up there last weekend and saw 2 really 360 ish bulls
and 5 smaller bulls.
Don't give up on 10 yet
Hopefully we cross on the late rifle hunt
Dom
 
Don was mostly looking for a nice antelope buck for a young lady coming out for a medical hunt of a lifetime rather than focusing on elk. He saw a couple good ones and is keeping them squirreled away for future reference.

I was a bit surprised at how quickly unit 10 greened up with the monsoons and the amount of water in the tanks; too bad we had no spring rains to speak of as antler growth across the board would have been fantastic. As it is, 300" bulls will be hammered on the late rifle hunt IMO, just like Don mentioned.

Here's a photo of a unit 10 sunrise...25 days and counting...

sunriseontheBoquillasRanch.jpg


Boquillashorsestaketothewater.jpg
 
LAST EDITED ON Aug-21-07 AT 05:56AM (MST)[p]Don, Do you have the same draw data for Unit 12B Late? I'm curious to know how many of the non-res tags were drawn out of the 20% Max Pt allocation.

And I have to question the guy who says, "if you are over 30 and only have about 10 points you could try but in all likelihood will most likely never get this tag" (boo hoo hoo). Isn't it a fact that the MAXIMUM number of points any applicant could have for deer going into the 2007 draw, is 10? So a 30 year old applicant with "about" 10 points (could be a big difference between 10 points and 8) should have an excellent chance of drawing a premium tag in his lifetime.
 
I'm sorry but the only deer lists I bought were 13A, 13B and 12A (early and late). Didn't get any other lists as I figured we wouldn't be able to hunt/guide there this year.

I do have last year's (2006) list for 12B and the NR's who drew those tags got them with max bonus points.

You're right about a NR who is in his 30's and already has 10 bonus points being able to draw a premium deer tag in the future.

It will still take a while for the 200+ NR's who have the max deer bonus points right now to draw, but eventually it will drop to the next group of bonus point holders. Course there are a lot of them in that pool too, but yes, it can be done. You just might have a few gray hairs when it happens....

Dom. We were mostly out in the flats this weekend and looking at areas that in the past have held elk. However they were seemingly devoid of them on this trip. Think it has to do with the late monsoon rains. Some of the areas are still real dry with little vegetation.

More scouting trips for both antelope and elk are planned...we'll see what happens..

Don Martin
 
Don, thanks for the answers. Just to clarify, I too agree residents should have the majority of tags, I also like the 90%. I as saying that they need to give 50% of the 10% to max points holders.






P.S. Fortuneately I am a resident of AZ!!!











It's Bush's fault!!!
 
Somebody was asking about how many bonus points it took to draw an archery Unit 9 archery (hunt # 3134) tag this year.

According to a document I just got, there was 3 people who had 14 bonus points and they all drew.

Two people with 13 bonus points applied and they both drew.

26 sportsmen with 12 bonus points applied and 12 drew.

It went down from there...

Don
 
Don, speaking of points, is there ever going to be a point system draw for all archery deer tags. It seems hunter numbers have been bombarded during archery deer. Would that help your business potential or would it stay the same.
 
I'd be willing to bet the points now will factor into archery. I doubt they would have two point systems. If you apply for archery and draw, you will lose your points.







It's Bush's fault!!!
 
Schmalts: Don't have that unit 9 RIFLE antelope data Hunt 2013-20 tags)as far as the breakdown for NR's is concerned. Here is the bonus points/tags breakdown.
18 bp 3 applied 3 drew
17 bp 22 applied 1 drew
16 bp 24 applied 2 drew
15 bp 44 applied 1 drew
14 bp 55 applied 0 drew
13 bp 65 applied 0 drew
12 bp 98 applied 1 drew
11 bp 83 applied 2 drew
10 bp 101 applied 3 drew
9 bp 94 applied 0 drew
8 bp 140 applied 3 drew
7 bp 140 applied 2 drew
6 bp 164 applied 1 drew
5 bp 140 applied 1 drew
4,3,2,1,0 had no tags drawn.

Hope that helps.

As to the archery deer question. The G&F Commission did pass at the August meeting the new guidelines that says starting in 2008 that units that had a 20% or better harvest (Not hunt success) of bucks will go to a draw.

Under the new guidelines, that means that 12A and 13A will go to the draw next year. Tags might be 1,850 for 12A, and 120 for 13A. New for the package will be the offering of archery deer tags in Unit 13B, the Arizona Strip!

Might be as many as 120 tags there to IF the department believes the 6-8% hunt success that is the average statewide also will apply to the Strip. (Some believe that the hunt success there the first year will be much higher since the bucks will have never been hunted at this time up there and they will on water!)

If you apply and draw, you do loose your deer bonus points UNLESS there are leftover tags and then you get one of those. No loss of points if that is how you get an archery tag. Did I say that 53% of those who buy an OTC archery deer tag also apply for rifle tags?

Will AZ go to an all archery deer draw? The G&F Commissioners say no, not now that it isn't even been considered. I believe 'em.

Do I think that sometime down the road that AZ will go to a "pick your method of take" state? Yep, sure do.

One thing is for sure, starting next July the archery deer situation will change and time will tell if it is good or bad!

Oh, these guidelines do not go into effect until next July. No changes in the current guidelines for archers in August, September, December 2007 and January 2008.

Hope this helps.

Don Martin

"Mister, I didn't make the rules, I'm just telling you like it is" DM 2007
 
>>I'm sorry but the only deer lists I bought were 13A, 13B and 12A (early and late).<<

Don,

Noted you posted the figures for only the 12A W late hunt. What about the other 12A hunts? -TONY
 
I can live with and like the AZ point system, as long as they keep the quality up and not go the road of (PARTICAPATION/OPERTUNITY) Like COLO. 12 for elk, I'm 42 yoa I will draw early rifle while I can still get around??My only complaint is the rule where you wont take another states Hunter Safety if it was prior to 1980?For the 1 day class for the extra point. I am having hell making the CO 3 day kid?s course fit in with the three jobs one of which is Night Shift. See time of my post? And all you NR?s hold out for those strip Muley hunts. Those Dec WT tags are terrible you don't want to bother with them?..
 
Quote of Don M.:

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>><<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

"In Unit 13A (hunt 1019)there were 55 tags offered. That meant the first 11 tags went out under the 20% pass rule. NR could get 10% of the total issued (55) so they could get a maximum of 5 permits.

They got tag numbers,1,2,3,4,5 and a guy who had bought a lifetime hunting license before he left Arizona got tag #12. (If you have a lifetime license and leave Arizona, you have to apply as a NR and pay those fees but are NOT under the 10% cap rule! Smart move, right?)"

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>><<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

That is very interesting. At your encouragement, I came to Kingman and took the NR Hunter Ed class last January. That put me in the max point pool.

I got tag #5 in Unit 13A as my second choice.

Thanks for the good advice and for sponsoring the Hunter Ed class. I really appreciate it.

I have previously emailed AZG&F and told them how much I dislike the NR cap being filled with guys like me with max points. My son will never live long enough to draw, even though he has seven points. This have effectively converted the AZ system to preference points, rather than bonus points, as far as NR's and the premier units are concerned. Even though I benefited from this weird change in the AZ draw system, I still don't think it was a good idea.

Pictures to follow in a few months (I hope).

"Hunt when you can - You're gonna' run out of health before you run out of money!"
 
This stuff about "my son will never live long enough to draw" is nonsense. It is particularly nonsensical for a person with 7 points.

"Draw" what? Does everyone have a right for a chance to draw a Strip deer tag? There are plenty of other good deer units. What about those? Yes, if everyone piles onto 13B and 13A, it is likely that some people will never live long enough to draw. So what?

Does everyone have a right for a chance to draw an Aravaipa bighorn tag? Well... under current regulations... no.

No one can predict how the attrition rates will accelarate in future years, as applicants age and begin looking for more available alternatives, or stop applying all together. Any prediction made today based on the assumption that attrition rates will never change is, by definition, flawed.

If a person with 7 points is convinced they will never "draw", perhaps it is time to join in the attrition of those who give up, and make room for someone with the confidence that persistance eventually will pay.
 
Whoa Horned Toad!

Obviously I said something that hit a nerve. I wasn't intending to imply that my son should be guaranteed a tag.

My point is this - For young people getting into the system, lets be truthful in saying what the AZ system really is, a preference point system. The change in the system two years ago effectively converted it from a bonus point system to a preference point system on the high-demand units.

Many NRs have paid a lot of money (via non-refundable license fees) to accumulate points with the belief that they would have some statistical possibility of drawing a premier tag some day down the road, even though that possibility would have been very remote. Now, many have paid for points and the remote possibility they had has been removed by this change.

The example I used is my son. He is younger and has time on his side. What about someone who is older and got in the game a little later? He paid a lot for his points, expecting to have a statistical chance, however slim. This change has negatively affected him.

The system is what it is, and my son will keep applying. He is patient and persistent. I just thought it would be better for younger people just getting into the system, and hunting in general, if it gave them some hope of drawing one of the premier tags.

I am not sure what will happen as more NRs realize the statistical improbability of drawing these premier tags, but I suspect it will cause them to drift to other units, whereby we see more units where the 20% max point draw fills the 10% NR quota, rather than just the ones we see today. This will do even more to make the system a preference point system.

Again, I benefited from the change, but my personal opinion is that it was a poor move for the future of hunting. But, since NRs are a primary funding mechanism and they have no vote in AZ, I expect not much will change.

My home state of MT puts the screws to NRs every chance they get, and even though I disagree with that, I expect to face obstacles when I apply as a NR in other states. Knowing that, I continue to apply.

Take a pill and calm down. I hope you get the tags you are looking for.

"Hunt when you can - You're gonna' run out of health before you run out of money!"
 
No, you didn't "hit a nerve", and there is no need for anyone to "calm down". It is just that I believe in intellectual honesty in these discussions.

Any time that any state changes its draw system, someone is advantaged over someone else. The creation of advantage is an inherrent part of any preferential draw system, whether bonus points, preference points or whatever.

I have no problem with people debating the relatvie merits of different means of allocating advantage for limited resources, like premium draw tags. Such is part of the political process. But statements like "this system is unfair because this young person will never draw in his lifetime" are, IMO, inherrently flawed. Such statements are always based on an assumption that current conditions, such as attrition rates, will never change.

If someone wants to argue that bonus point systems are inherently "fairer" than preference point systems, that's okay. And if someone wants to argue that all means of allocating advantage should be locked in place forever, because change means betraying those who "bought in" on the earlier assumption, that is okay too. But to base an argument against one system or the other on a claim that some person will "never draw in their lifetime", when such is based on a flawed assumption, is wrong.
 
It is what it is and Don's comments are based on best data available for the current situation under the current regs. I would recommend using this data, even though we don't like the reality of some of it, but use it to map out your overall hunting strategy. This will give you the best returns going forward and more time a field. With the current regs, it takes a multi state strategy to have a shot at a coveted tag. Truth is under the current regs in most states, a no draw on some units is the cold hard truth. Hey, I agree in persistance and will power ("Will Power") as much as anyone, but the data is the data until the next time the regs change. Good luck with your hunts this year and your tag strategies going forward. I struck out this year, went 0 for a bunch in several states and so did my son. There is always over-the-counter Oregon.

Johnny
 
The intent of the 20% max points rule is to give up to 20% of the tags to max points holders. Turning high demand hunts ito a true preference system for nonresidents is just an unintended consequence of the high percentage of high points holders being nonresident, combined with the 10% nonresident cap. It seems to me that the easiest way to allow up to 20% of the nonresident tags to go to max points nonresidents would be to put a 2% nonresident cap on the max points round. That would satisfy the spirit of the rule, 20% of available tags going to max points holders, no matter if resident or nonresident. Now, some may argue on the appropriate percentage, but the AZ draw is intended to be mostly a bonus point system.
 
That 10% non-res cap thing is a bad deal for you out of state hunters. If I were you, I'd quit puttin in.

Maybe then, I'll be able to draw a tag on the strip and not hunt Coues in November for a change!
 
I guess in about 5 yr if I haven't drew, I will move over to AZ for 8 months or so, so I can draw a tag with my banked up points. LOL
 
So what is the definition of a premier tag? What does a unit have to have to define it as premier? Does it just have to be extremely hard to draw? Is it the overall number of trophy animals there? How many huge deer actually come off these Kaibab and Strip units every year? There are many units in AZ that produce 400" bulls and 180+ deer, so why can't the NR figure this out and apply accordingly? How many NR wait a lifetime to draw this tag and end up shooting an average 4x4? Probably most.







It's Bush's fault!!!
 
The biggest gripe I have about points systems is how they change the game so often. Nonresidents who bought into the points system for years, investing hundreds or even thousands of dollars, now have their investment ruined overnight two years ago when AZGFD changed the max points percentage from 10% to 20%. It is east to say just do not apply, but what about the past investment? AZ does tout it as a bonus point, not preference point system. Not the case now for nonresident high demand units. And yes, there are other good hunts non max points nonresidents can draw still, but not necessarily the hunts that applicants chose to spend the money on licenses and applications for over the past years.
 

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