U
uhi
Guest
This site was updated and now contains the projected odds for the 2006 hunts-
http://www.utahhuntinfo.com/myodds.aspx
http://www.utahhuntinfo.com/myodds.aspx
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K
ktc
Guest
Well, according to this, ktc and mrs. ktc are going elk hunting this year. No maybes. No ifs. 100% without a doubt tags for us.
With my luck, I would say this tool is not right.;-)
With my luck, I would say this tool is not right.;-)
U
utrednek
Guest
Every time I try it it just says no data returned...
Shawn
Shawn
E
elk_horn
Guest
Cannot get data!
M
moneyman
Guest
LAST EDITED ON Feb-01-06 AT 01:44PM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Feb-01-06 AT 01:43 PM (MST)
I read over your evaluation of how to calculate the odds of drawing a tag. One thing, do you account for there being more than one tag available?
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From you website:
"The Reserved Permit draw is a bit more interesting. Each applicant is given an entry into the draw for each bonus point that applicant has, plus an additional entry for the species. Each entry is then assigned to a random drawing number. The permits are then awarded to the applicants with the lowest drawing numbers. For example, an applicant has 9 bonus points. They receive 10 random numbers. Let's also assume that there are 20 other applicants that have a total of 90 bonus points (including the one for species) between them. So the total number of random numbers is 100. This applicant has 10 of those numbers, so the odds of drawing a reserved permit is 10 in 100, or 10%. The odds for these Reserved Permits is calculated by dividing the number of bonus points plus one that an applicant has by the sum of the number of bonus points plus one multiplied by the number of applicants."
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Shouldn't the last step be to divide by the number of available tags? What if, in your example, there are 10 tags? Would the odds of drawing a tag be 100%, since there are only ten applicants, regardless of bonus points?
I read over your evaluation of how to calculate the odds of drawing a tag. One thing, do you account for there being more than one tag available?
-------
From you website:
"The Reserved Permit draw is a bit more interesting. Each applicant is given an entry into the draw for each bonus point that applicant has, plus an additional entry for the species. Each entry is then assigned to a random drawing number. The permits are then awarded to the applicants with the lowest drawing numbers. For example, an applicant has 9 bonus points. They receive 10 random numbers. Let's also assume that there are 20 other applicants that have a total of 90 bonus points (including the one for species) between them. So the total number of random numbers is 100. This applicant has 10 of those numbers, so the odds of drawing a reserved permit is 10 in 100, or 10%. The odds for these Reserved Permits is calculated by dividing the number of bonus points plus one that an applicant has by the sum of the number of bonus points plus one multiplied by the number of applicants."
------
Shouldn't the last step be to divide by the number of available tags? What if, in your example, there are 10 tags? Would the odds of drawing a tag be 100%, since there are only ten applicants, regardless of bonus points?
M
moneyman
Guest
>Cannot get data!
Don't input the hunt number, unless you know the 5 digit number from the hunt regs. Leave it blank and you'll get the results.
Don't input the hunt number, unless you know the 5 digit number from the hunt regs. Leave it blank and you'll get the results.
O
opportunist
Guest
I still have doubts about your odds. How can I have a 10x better chance to draw a NR Mountain Goat tag with 3 points as I do of drawing a Books Cliff rifle tag with 4 points?
It appears to me that the odds are not being calculated correctly on this site. It shows that the Book Cliffs Any Weapon deer hunt is harder to draw than the Henry Mountain Premium Limited Entry buck hunt for a Non-resident with 4 bonus points. Unless they took all the tags away from the Book Cliffs hunt this can't be right.
Is everyone having the same problem with this site?
Is everyone having the same problem with this site?
R
RACKMASTER
Guest
take it for what its worth!.............
to me its just hype! number don't jive right!
to some I hope it turns them away!
Rackmaster
to me its just hype! number don't jive right!
to some I hope it turns them away!
Rackmaster
U
uhi
Guest
moneyman,
It is easy to come to that conclusion if there were 10 tags in that example. However, if you did divide by the number of tags that would give you inaccurate odds. The problem with dividing by the number of tags is that after the first tag is awarded, the odds would be different since that would eliminate that applicants entries in the pool because an applicant can only receive one tag. The reason that the odds work out to be 100% if there are enough tags to go around is that each time an applicant is rewarded a tag, their entries no longer are valid. The odds would therefore change each time and eventually there would only be one tag left for the last person and the end results would be 100%. It is impossible to calculate the odds after the first tag is awarded, becase at that point we don't know how many bonus points that individual had and would effectively be removed from the draw. If you want please email me and I could send you an example of why you cannot divide.
uhi
It is easy to come to that conclusion if there were 10 tags in that example. However, if you did divide by the number of tags that would give you inaccurate odds. The problem with dividing by the number of tags is that after the first tag is awarded, the odds would be different since that would eliminate that applicants entries in the pool because an applicant can only receive one tag. The reason that the odds work out to be 100% if there are enough tags to go around is that each time an applicant is rewarded a tag, their entries no longer are valid. The odds would therefore change each time and eventually there would only be one tag left for the last person and the end results would be 100%. It is impossible to calculate the odds after the first tag is awarded, becase at that point we don't know how many bonus points that individual had and would effectively be removed from the draw. If you want please email me and I could send you an example of why you cannot divide.
uhi
U
uhi
Guest
opportunist,
Can you give me the hunt ID's and I'll verify the data?
While putting these odds together I was dumbfounded at what the "true" odds were. I spend days running verifications and comparing scenarios and to this point haven't found any issues with the calculations. Let me know and I'll double check the hunts you are comparing.
uhi
Can you give me the hunt ID's and I'll verify the data?
While putting these odds together I was dumbfounded at what the "true" odds were. I spend days running verifications and comparing scenarios and to this point haven't found any issues with the calculations. Let me know and I'll double check the hunts you are comparing.
uhi
U
uhi
Guest
LVTHNT,
I'm assuming the odds you are referring to are the "reserved" or regular tags. Please keep in mind that the odds for that hunt are DIRECTLY proportionate to the number of applicants and the quantity of the bonus points that they have. For the hunts you mention there were considerably more people applying for the Book Cliffs hunts than the Henry's Mtn. hunts. The more people that apply for a hunt the worse your chances for drawing a "reserved" or regular permit are.
UHI
I'm assuming the odds you are referring to are the "reserved" or regular tags. Please keep in mind that the odds for that hunt are DIRECTLY proportionate to the number of applicants and the quantity of the bonus points that they have. For the hunts you mention there were considerably more people applying for the Book Cliffs hunts than the Henry's Mtn. hunts. The more people that apply for a hunt the worse your chances for drawing a "reserved" or regular permit are.
UHI
B
bobcatbess
Guest
I WANT THE TRUE ODDS WITHOUT ALL THE B.S.!!!
I'VE LOOKED AT EVERY ANGLE & THERE ARE SO MANY VARIABLES I DON'T SEE HOW ANYBODY'S ODDS PREDICTIONS ARE ACCURATE!!!
UHI!!!
PLEASE GIVE ME THE ODDS IN THE LE ELK UNITS WITH SOMEBODY THAT HAS SAY 10 POINTS!!!
I'M LOOKING FOR 1 IN ? HOW MANY???
THE ONLY bobcat WONDERING ABOUT THESE ODDS???
I'VE LOOKED AT EVERY ANGLE & THERE ARE SO MANY VARIABLES I DON'T SEE HOW ANYBODY'S ODDS PREDICTIONS ARE ACCURATE!!!
UHI!!!
PLEASE GIVE ME THE ODDS IN THE LE ELK UNITS WITH SOMEBODY THAT HAS SAY 10 POINTS!!!
I'M LOOKING FOR 1 IN ? HOW MANY???
THE ONLY bobcat WONDERING ABOUT THESE ODDS???
O
opportunist
Guest
>opportunist,
>
>Can you give me the hunt
>ID's and I'll verify the
>data?
>
>While putting these odds together I
>was dumbfounded at what the
>"true" odds were. I
>spend days running verifications and
>comparing scenarios and to this
>point haven't found any issues
>with the calculations. Let
>me know and I'll double
>check the hunts you are
>comparing.
>
>uhi
Mule Deer - 10-014 - Books Cliff - Rifle - 4 points - 824.1:1
Mountain Goat - 08-974 - no / so slope - 3 points - 151.5:1
Thanks!
>
>Can you give me the hunt
>ID's and I'll verify the
>data?
>
>While putting these odds together I
>was dumbfounded at what the
>"true" odds were. I
>spend days running verifications and
>comparing scenarios and to this
>point haven't found any issues
>with the calculations. Let
>me know and I'll double
>check the hunts you are
>comparing.
>
>uhi
Mule Deer - 10-014 - Books Cliff - Rifle - 4 points - 824.1:1
Mountain Goat - 08-974 - no / so slope - 3 points - 151.5:1
Thanks!
U
uhi
Guest
opportunist,
I've made one tweak to the reserved permit odds- had to do with the probability of mutually exclusive events- and so it affected the reserved permit odds. The data you see now is now nearly statistically accurate- probably as close as you can get without seeing into the future.
For the hunts you referenced, the odds are now:
Book cliffs: 10-014 Mule Deer 4 pts Bonus Permit: 0%- No Chance Reserved permit:4.5063% or 1 in 22.2.
Mountain goat: 08-974 No. Slope/So. Slope, 3 pts = Bonus permit odds:0%-No Chance. Reserved permit odds: 4.0816%, or 1 in 24.5.
UHI
www.utahhuntinfo.com
I've made one tweak to the reserved permit odds- had to do with the probability of mutually exclusive events- and so it affected the reserved permit odds. The data you see now is now nearly statistically accurate- probably as close as you can get without seeing into the future.
For the hunts you referenced, the odds are now:
Book cliffs: 10-014 Mule Deer 4 pts Bonus Permit: 0%- No Chance Reserved permit:4.5063% or 1 in 22.2.
Mountain goat: 08-974 No. Slope/So. Slope, 3 pts = Bonus permit odds:0%-No Chance. Reserved permit odds: 4.0816%, or 1 in 24.5.
UHI
www.utahhuntinfo.com
U
uhi
Guest
bobcat-
The info you'd like consists of about 2 pages of data. Use the site and plug in the variables you mention and it will show you what you want. So use ELK in the first drop down box, leave the HUNT # field blank, put 10 in the Bonus POints field, select the weapon you'll use, then select Ltd. Entry in the last drop down box and click the "Get Odds" button. The results are sortable by whatever intersts you- reserved odds, bonus odds, hunt number, etc.
If you don't want to do all this email me at [email protected] and I'll reply with the info you're looking for.
UHI
www.utahhuntinfo.com
The info you'd like consists of about 2 pages of data. Use the site and plug in the variables you mention and it will show you what you want. So use ELK in the first drop down box, leave the HUNT # field blank, put 10 in the Bonus POints field, select the weapon you'll use, then select Ltd. Entry in the last drop down box and click the "Get Odds" button. The results are sortable by whatever intersts you- reserved odds, bonus odds, hunt number, etc.
If you don't want to do all this email me at [email protected] and I'll reply with the info you're looking for.
UHI
www.utahhuntinfo.com
U
uhi
Guest
LVTHNT
I've made an adjustment on the reserved permit odds to include the total number of permits available in the reserved draws. See if your scenarios look a little better now.
UHI
www.utahhuntinfo.com
I've made an adjustment on the reserved permit odds to include the total number of permits available in the reserved draws. See if your scenarios look a little better now.
UHI
www.utahhuntinfo.com
U
uhi
Guest
moneyman,
I've updated the odds to include the total number of reserved permits, so statistically the data is as close to accurate as possible without seeing the future. Please email me if you have any more questions. [email protected]
UHI
www.utahhuntinfo.com
I've updated the odds to include the total number of reserved permits, so statistically the data is as close to accurate as possible without seeing the future. Please email me if you have any more questions. [email protected]
UHI
www.utahhuntinfo.com
M
moneyman
Guest
Does this take into account the 25% of all NR tags pimped away by SFW?
