Bonus Point Draw Rules ?

[KILLSHOT]

So I've had a lot of mixed opinions asking around on this subject and
haven't found any thing too clear in the proclamation to answer my ?
When you apply for a L.E. hunt do they add another number into the
draw for you for that year or is it only the previous years points?
I ask this because I'm trying to figure out my odds in drawing this
year. For example this is the 7th year I've applied for elk and it show
that I have 6 pts on the divisions website from previous years so
when I put my bonus point number in the odds calculator that's on
this site do I enter in 6 for the previous years or should I put
in 7 for this years application? What's the right way to do it?

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[txhunter58]

LAST EDITED ON Apr-15-10 AT 05:48PM (MST)[p]You enter 6, no question. I believe you do get a 7th chance in the drawing for this year, but that is not figured into the odds chart.

AND, you will notice if you use the draw odds website available on this website, when you enter 6 and do a search, you will notice that the odds it brings up only shows your odds of drawing at 5 points!

That is because everyone else that had points last year has one more this year, so you can't look at this years odds and use 6 points, you have to use 5 to get anywhere near accurate as to what your points will be for this year.

But to be absolutely clear, you would enter 6 points.

All bets are off if you are near max points, but with 6 you are no where near there!

txhunter58

venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore I am)

 

[JDC]

Bryce,

If the DWR indicates that you have 6 points, you actually have 7 chances in the 2010 drawing - one for each point and one for your current application. Someone with 0 points has only 1 chance - their current application.

As for what to enter in the odds section of this site. You need to enter the number of points the DWR has on record for you right now. The additional chance you are given for your current application is built into the odds calculations. You also need to keep in mind that these odds are based on the 2009 applications when you only had 5 points.

So to try to make this simple, you will enter 6 and the system will automatically deduct one point from that total to highlight the correct 2009 odds level of 5. When you enter your points and click the "Find a Hunt" button, the next screen that comes up highlights the 5 point level in blue and in the legend at the top of the page, it shows your current points of 6 and your 2009 points at 5. This shows what your odds actually were in 2009. We will not know what your odds were here in 2010 until we get the application reports from the DWR here in a couple months.

I hope that this helps.

Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com

 

[llamapacker]

Killshot,

Your questions seems to imply that draw odds from last year can be used with accuracy for this year. Noting could be further from the truth!

Draw odds in a given unit change all the time. Nobody can really know who will apply in a given unit in the future. All the odds charts should have a disclaimer sort of like the stock market - Past performance is no indication of Future results.

The odds charts are very valuable, and I study them religiously, but don't try to make more of them than they really are.

Bill

 

[KILLSHOT]

Thanks for the input guys. I know that the draw odds are nothing close
to guaranteed because of the always changing tag allocation from the
DWR and new applications coming in from people changing over from other
units but you are right Bill, they are worth studying. Anybody have
an idea on why the wasatch unit won't pull up under elk? I want to see
how many people apply for the premium with how many points and how many
tags the division allocates but cannot pull up the info on the hunt odds
page because the wasatch unit does not show


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[WapitiBob]

LAST EDITED ON Apr-19-10 AT 08:37PM (MST)[p]Wasatch Premium is there. I just looked at it.

That info is also published by the Game Dept.

 

[WapitiBob]

LAST EDITED ON Apr-19-10 AT 08:41PM (MST)[p]

here

 

[KILLSHOT]

Its there if you do not select a unit or weapon and just do a search
for all the elk hunts and all the seasons. But if you select elk then
try to select the specific unit (wasatch) to get more detailed information
it isn't there. When I scroll through the whole unit list the last one
on the list is the boulder unit but no wasatch.

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[JDC]

Bryce,

Select elk and then Wasatch and click the "Find a Hunt" button. This will give you all the Wasatch weapon choices. The premium option is on the bottom of the list. From here click the hunt name and this will pull the detail you are looking for.

Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com

 

[KILLSHOT]

Jon,
I appreciate the help but I'm thinking that it isn't the hunt odds
fault but more my black berry that I'm trying to view it with. Before
it would only let me scroll down to the plat/boulder hunt and now it
will let me get down to the scofield unit but no wasatch. I dunno why it won't pull up on the black berry cause it is able to view evrything else on this site.
Ill just have to try it later on the computer.
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