Big 3 odds for NR

DoeNob · Apr 5, 2019

LAST EDITED ON Apr-05-19 AT 09:34AM (MST)[p]SO - someone correct me if I'm wrong on this. But for YEARS I have read Eastman's and now epic all saying that Idaho has great non resident drawing odds for Sheep and Mountain goats.

However they then go on to show total apps and total tags and say that's your chance.

But that ignores the NR cap.

As a NR to draw a goat tag you have to be one of the FOUR that are drawn, THEN hope there's an open tag in the unit you applied for.

So in reality the odds they are showing are only 1/2 the picture its actually MUCH MUCH worse because you would divide 4/total NR apps then multiply that by drawing odds for the unit.

If this is correct I can't see how it makes any sense at all for NR to apply for MG (4 NR tags) or BHS (9 NR tags) - Moose with the 56 NR tags still has a glimmer. Might as well just spend the same money on governor tag draws around the west for similar terrible odds....

So are the magazines just blowing smoke up our skirt because their job is to sell people the idea they just need to apply apply apply and they will draw?

Arrowelk · Apr 5, 2019

I think you are looking at it a bit pessimistic....

As a Non-res you have the exact same "odds" of drawing a goat sheep or moose tag as a resident does.... until the quota (10% or less) is met for that specific hunt or until the quota (10% or less) is met for that species... then your odds go to zero...

I didn't check the math on your numbers but assuming 4 is the NR quota for Goats, you don't have to draw one of 4 tags, though technically you are. You have to draw the tag against everybody else and hope you are in before the NR quota is hit... there is a chance that no NR had drawn a tag or less than 4 had drawn well down the list because there are so few total permits.

obviously it is also possible and likely to occur, that a NR would be "drawn" and then disqualified because one or both quotas had been met. Knowing that information would make some guys sick I bet!

I have heard that it is not a true draw per/hunt number either. meaning that all the applicants for a species are assigned a random number and for lack of a better term the lowest numbers win. In that scenario, you would really just have to be one of the first or lowest 4-6 NR's drawn. Either way the odds are long for a reason. But they are long every where.

I have been Lucky in the big 3 draws and only have one left to go which I will be putting in for sheep this year..

Alwayshunting · Apr 5, 2019

I bailed on Idaho's "big 3" this year for that reason. If the first 4 names out of the hat are NR, then you've completely wasted your money and worry for nothing. So I'll apply for the little 3 and skip across the border for my moose. Should have bit the bullet years ago, feels good to know I'll be hunting moose this year... lol

ElmerFudd · Apr 5, 2019

It really only would be worth applying for MSG in Idaho if you plan to buy the license and hunt there anyway.

Outdoordan · Apr 6, 2019

Still MUCH better odds than in the surrounding states. Most states these days make you buy a license as well. Idaho is still the best bet state when it comes to drawing a tag. I have a friend whom put in for sheep first year and drew it.

boise · Apr 6, 2019

2018 had 224 NR mtn goat apps if I can count. 4 permits went to those hunters. I'm not following other states, how is 1 in 56 odds? Also take into consideration that only 1 permit can go to NR in each unit. So if you avoid a unit like 18,67 which have twice as many NR apps as all the others that's gotta move the needle a little higher. There is always multiple ways to analyze these numbers. I used to apply in Oregon for bighorn sheep and they assign which units a NR can apply for the odds didn't deter me and Loyd ?So, your telling me there's a chance ? good luck!

Alwayshunting · Apr 6, 2019

I would like to see more states do like nv and separate NR into units and tag allotments. Then you have true draw odds and not the asterisk of "until the 10 percent cap is reached"....

sticksender · Apr 7, 2019

LAST EDITED ON Apr-07-19 AT 08:15AM (MST)[p]The biggest benefit to Idaho's NR draw system for their big-4 (BH sheep, CBH sheep, goat, moose) is NR access to all hunting units. Other states' systems restrict NRs to a few specific units. But in Idaho, even if a hunt code only has one total tag, NR's still are given a chance at it. While other state's systems might make it easier to wrap your head around "draw odds", it prevents you as a NR from ever hunting many of the units in that state. Under both scenarios, the average likelihood to draw is about the same.....the number of tags awarded divided by the number of NR applicants. When applying in Idaho, pick a lower-demand unit if you want higher draw odds for yourself. Or pick the unit you want most.....say Hell's Canyon Sheep, and then pray to the draw gods.

BTW, Huntin' Fool has published actual historical NR draw odds for the Idaho big-4. They mention that odds were calculated by running a simulated draw using Idaho's published applicant data. In Idaho, applicant pool size by hunt code historically hasn't changed drastically from year-to-year. So you will know roughly where you stand going into the draw, and can decide whether the gamble is worth the cost.

N_Corey · Apr 7, 2019

Idaho has the best draw odds by far for both residents and nonresidents for OIL tags. In most cases they actually have better odds for nonresidents than their home state.

hawkbill · Apr 7, 2019

I don't know where you think your odds are a lot better, these OIL tags for sheep, moose and goats are not easy to draw, if you look at draw stats for Idaho they haven't changed much in the last 10 years , you are right that you have to be one of the first to draw to get a tag . This goes the same for every state though. I look at OIL tags as an investment in the future, you just keep putting in and it seems like every time you are not expecting a tag, one pops up successful every 6 to 10 years. Good luck

Alwayshunting · Apr 8, 2019

They're alot better in Alb and BC. Which are both surrounding Idaho. But everything has it's own set of problems...

Outdoordan · Apr 8, 2019

>They're alot better in Alb and
>BC. Which are both surrounding
>Idaho. But everything has it's
>own set of problems...

Sorry, but that is incorrect. From the Alberta website when asked,
"Can non-resident aliens apply for tags?"
The answer:
"Non-resident aliens cannot apply for draws."

N_Corey · Apr 8, 2019

Alberta and BC is totally different than hunting in the US. Sure you can go up there every year but you have to pay a guide. At that point you might as well go to Alaska but that's getting off the original topic.

Alwayshunting · Apr 8, 2019

>Alberta and BC is totally different
>than hunting in the US.
> Sure you can go
>up there every year but
>you have to pay a
>guide. At that point you
>might as well go to
>Alaska but that's getting off
>the original topic.

Not if you want a shiras. And no, going to Alaska is about double. Yes it is totally different, as I stated, each has there own set of problems...

Outdoordan · Apr 8, 2019

This thread is about draw odds? You can't draw tags in AB or BC.

HUNTNNW · Apr 9, 2019

Ive lost count on how many friends I know who have drawn moose as a NR. Most drew the first or second time trying. I know of a handful of Sheep tags too. ID OIL odds are far better than anywhere in Lower 48

huntin50 · Apr 9, 2019

Buy a $150 dollar license for a very slim chance to draw.

If a unit had 500 applicants for 3 permits, and 50% of the applicants were non residents.

If one non resident drew ahead of you for one of the three permits, you have NO chance, even if you were the second in the draw out of the 500 people.

If the first 3 were residents draw, you obviously have no chance.

Your only chance is to be one of the first three to draw out of 500, and hope a non resident didn't draw number one or two tags, which would knock you out of the draw.

Outdoordan · Apr 9, 2019

>Buy a $150 dollar license for
>a very slim chance to
>draw.
>
> If a unit had 500
>applicants for 3 permits, and
>50% of the applicants were
>non residents.
>
>If one non resident drew ahead
>of you for one of
>the three permits, you have
>NO chance, even if you
>were the second in the
>draw out of the 500
>people.
>
>If the first 3 were residents
>draw, you obviously have no
>chance.
>
>Your only chance is to be
>one of the first three
>to draw out of 500,
>and hope a non resident
>didn't draw number one or
>two tags, which would knock
>you out of the draw.
>

Yep, or pick a unit that doesn't have 500 applicants. The worst mountain goat unit (as far as NR applicants goes) had 40 NR applicants, and 67 Resident applicants. The best had 6 NR applicants and 18 Resident applicants. If we are going to make up numbers we can paint any picture we want. Both of these units had 4 goat tags.

IdahoHntr · Apr 9, 2019

Another aspect of Idaho's draw that people forget is you have a chance to draw EVERY year. Most other states operating on a point system don't have a chance of drawing for a LONG time. Yes, the odds are bad, they are bad everywhere, but I guarantee you have better odds putting in for OIL in Idaho than you do have in any state starting from the bottom of the points pool.

I understand the mentality that if you put in for 10-15+ years you eventually could have just bought a tag up north, but the same can be said for putting in for any state. None of them are cheap anymore for once in a lifetime, and crunching the numbers Idaho's "bad" odds are still the best in the bunch. If you want to hunt up north, save your money and get er done! If you want to hunt some of these species in the lower 48, Idaho is still one of your best bets.

sticksender · Apr 9, 2019

Mt Goat last year had 224 NR apps with 4 licenses were issued, for just short of 2% draw odds as an average. No one is saying those draw odds are wonderful. It's merely that they're better than most other states can offer to NR's. But like every other state that issues Mt Goat tags to NR's, you most likely won't draw. But 4 NR's did draw last year. Hence my statement above about deciding for yourself whether the cost is worth gambling on, for you.

And it's about the overall draw-portfolio picture, not just one state. If you enter draws and raffles in multiple different states, you can estimate how often luck should strike, somewhere, and thereby determine whether the annual expenditure for participating is actually worth it. As opposed to taking the alternate route of simply purchasing your hunts. To be honest, with more and more states hiking their NR app fees, and with more and more app services shouting apply-apply-apply, driving point creep through the roof, it's quickly becoming less feasible to enter draws, and more logical to save the money towards buying a hunt. Especially for the highest-demand species like goat, sheep and moose. The only thing keeping me in most western draws is the potential they offer for doing some of these hunts DIY.

Outdoordan · Apr 9, 2019

I completely agree with you both. I have contemplated getting out of the draws myself, and am glad I drew my WY moose tag last year after 17 years (and I got lucky to draw). The biggest problem with saving and buying a hunt is; 1. If you like DIY your mostly out of luck 2. Every time I look at a hunt I get sticker shock! I mean hunts are being priced out of reach for average guys with average means. There really is no perfect scenario, but at least you have a chance in drawing a coveted Idaho tag.

Alwayshunting · Apr 9, 2019

At a certain point, a guys got to make the decision to hunt or not though. I'm not making an argument for or against anything. Just making conversation... I personally just hate knowing that I could've been pulled one app past the 10 percent cap and been rejected. So this year I chose not to apply for Idaho's OIL and as a consolation prize I get the chance at deer elk lope again... lol

Outdoordan · Apr 9, 2019

You'll never know if you'll win unless you play. Good luck in the other draws, in many cases the elk, deer, lope draws have even worse odds.

Alwayshunting · Apr 9, 2019

>You'll never know if you'll win
>unless you play. Good
>luck in the other draws,
>in many cases the elk,
>deer, lope draws have even
>worse odds.

Yes sir, I know the Idaho system very well. My upbringing mirrors yours OD. I'll be back to resident status soon enough and will jump back on the oil hunts but for now, I wanna hunt, not wait...

Outdoordan · Apr 9, 2019

And you will! Still great OTC hunting in Idaho, plenty of options. Good luck.

toprut · Apr 10, 2019

>BTW, Huntin' Fool has published actual
>historical NR draw odds for
>the Idaho big-4. They mention
>that odds were calculated by
>running a simulated draw using
>Idaho's published applicant data.

I suspect that the manner in which they accounted for the 10% NR cap is pretty solid.

IdahoHntr · Apr 10, 2019

>>You'll never know if you'll win
>>unless you play. Good
>>luck in the other draws,
>>in many cases the elk,
>>deer, lope draws have even
>>worse odds.
>
>
>Yes sir, I know the Idaho
>system very well. My upbringing
>mirrors yours OD. I'll be
>back to resident status soon
>enough and will jump back
>on the oil hunts but
>for now, I wanna hunt,
>not wait...

Solid plan. It will save yourself a chunk of change when you actually do draw that tag anyway. Non-resident OIL tag prices are what's keeping me out of that draw until I get back living in Idaho.

Flatlander · May 13, 2019

I am really happy that I bought a lifetime license while I could. Now that I can afford the tag fees, applying is almost free. For the kind of odds I can get on moose, which my home state doesn't even have, its definitely worth the few hundred I had to shell out when I was young.