20% Max Points/10% NR Cap

ElmerFudd

Very Active Member
Messages
2,462
The commission seems to ignore that some high demand hunts fill in the 20% max points round due to disproportinatly high nonresident numbers in the top pools...It is a resident issue too. The intent was to have 20% of the tags go to high points. But if nonresidents get 1/2 of those, resident max points only gets 10%, making resident assured waits longer...Plus locking out less than max points nonresidents will discourage license sales and applications, forcing resident fees to go up. So, if the intent is 20% to max points, an additional 2% nonresident cap should be placed on the max points round. Pretty easy line to add in the draw program...That way 80% of the nonresident quota will pass to the bonus point round, and residents will get their full share of the max points tags. Sounds like the intent of the 20/80 max points split anyway...

Anyway, I wrote them on the e-mail link on their survey...
 
If I understand you correctly. You want ALL the 20% max pool points to go to residents and ALL non-residents to be equal regardless of how long they've been holding out for this tag or if they just started, and ALL these non-res would compete for only 10% of the few tags available.
That stinks !
A resident that has zero points can still draw from the 80% pool.
A non-resident has ZERO chance at the 80% and you want to make guys like me who decided when the point system was implemented for deer, to go 13B or bust, and have paid the high dues and have foregone deer hunting other units for the last 10 years. Now by your idea, we should have that stripped from us so that you can have better odds.
I don't think so !
 
No, 20% of the NR 10% should go to max, 80% of the 10% should go to bonus. The intent was just that. The all tags to max is only for the last few years, when they moved max points from 10% to 20%. So don't give me this 13B or bust from the start now they are changing BS. They already have changed the rules on the guy in since then till the most recent change.

BTW, I am a max point 13B or bust NR. This change would definitly hurt my 13B chances. But it is m,ore fair to everyone, and would help my sheep, elk, and lope chances in return...
 
I interpret your proposal as only wanting 20% (1/5) of the NR tags to be available in the 20% pass. Correct?

I believe other people and groups (Carter? being one) have requested to no avail that the NR permits be split between the 20% bonus pass and the 1-2 pass.

In most of the elk and deer hunts, NR can be drawn in the 1-2 pass. (Unit 12a late, 13 mule deer, early bull, 9,10 archery bull being exceptions.) For these high demand hunts, the odds of drawing even as a resident outside of the 20% pass are very low. So if you throw NR out of the 20% pass possibility and into the 1-2 pass, you are really cutting their draw odds. Look at the odds and see.

Either way, whether NR fill in the 20% or not, NR recieve up to 10% of the tags total. Is your proposal meant to help AZ residents with max points? Your proposal would hurt NR overall.

Maybe AZ should go to a PP system? :-( (See old thread about draw changes needed)
 
13B rifle = 4 NR tags
with your idea 1 tag goes to max and 3 goes to random.
As it is now, there are about 200 NR in the max pool.
And there are about 390 late season hunts north of the ditch.
That means only a maximum of 39 tags for ALL hunts will go to non-residents.
Each year at least 25 persons or more are added to the max point pool after taking the safety class.
As it stands now, the max point pool for non-residents will grow faster than it will draw out.
 
LAST EDITED ON Jun-26-09 AT 03:03PM (MST)[p]This is going to sound strange and just think about it.

I still love to hate USO for all the BS they put us through and a few incedents with guides in the field.

Remember the year all bets were off and the NR restictions were overturned. Extra tags after a lawsuit and all. That was horrible, wasn't fair, killed extra animals. Ruined hunting in Az forever, or did it.

The herds are still in great shape, never had a hiccup. A huge majority of NRs were pushed through the system. It was like opening up a tourniquet and letting blood flow out refreshing the stale system.

Open the tourniquet once every 5 years or so, no NR cap, help keep the system clean.

Kent
 
Preference pointa (which it effectively is now for high demand units for nonresidents) are totally unfair for hunts that do not roll over in a reasonable period of time. First in on the Ponzi Pyramid scheme is everything. They effectively lock everyone out for life, or a good chunk of it, if you live longer than most.

OK, when the system started it was 10% max 10% NR. And about 1/2 or so of the preference tags went to NR for those, leaving 1/2 for the bonus point round. So instead of 20% of the 10%, make it 50%. Anyone in after the first and before the 20% change is screwed out of their investment by a rule change now. Not what they planned when they decided to buy in. But leaving it now is plain unfair to those not in the good ol' boys club.

And no, it is nobody's exclusive right to ever draw those high demand hunt. Not everyone who wants one will get a 13B tag. That's why the action tag gets $100K +....
 
I've heard several ideas on how AZGF should change the draw system and for every idea, there is a very reasonable counter argument against it. Even an idea as simple as changing the 80/20 to 60/40 has a good argument against the seemingly logical change.

I'm a resident, but I don't hunt north of the big ditch. I've put in a few years just in case, but have never been there. This is my qualifying statement or this could be a stupid idea so go softly.

Why not just make every third year a pure non-resident year for the late hunt in 13B and maybe even the 12 units too. NR's would still need to keep their points up because they would be competing with each other so AZGF does not lose revenue. The boost in all the non-resident tag fees every third year could help their budget. All the tags going to NR's that year may drain some of the NR max pool and either keep the 80/20 for the other two years or make them pure resident draws.

I understand residents may not like that idea, but we have a lot better opportunity to draw a tag in the quality area's than NR's either way.

I'll duck now.
264
 
264X300, it definately will take an out of the box idea to make any kind of appreciable change. Your idea is worth thinking about.

I'm not really in favor of seperating R and NR in a lottery system, either giving them a guaranteed percentage or their own hunts. I at least like to keep it my low lottery # against everyone's low lottery #, winner gets the tag.

The, 'up to' 10% NR is just a number. I wouldn't mind seeing the 10% in hunts that have a high proportion of NRs with high BPs move to 20% as long as they kept the 'up to' and only 'up to' 10% in the 20% pass and an 'up to' 10% in the 80%. That would keep it mano-a-mano, my bps against your's.

Or as I stated above, every so often for one year it's head to head, lets get it on, and see who get's a tag, no matter who you are.

Kent
 
>Or as I stated above, every
>so often for one year
>it's head to head, lets
>get it on, and see
>who get's a tag, no
>matter who you are.
>
>Kent
I like that idea.
Say, once every 5 years they have a draw without 20% max pool and no 10% NR cap. Your bonus points will still be in effect, but even someone with only one point could still have a chance.
 
Jason & Garth already drew & used their points so NOW they want to change the system! What a bunch of B.S!
David
 
Everybody is "concerned" until they "that" tag! Some of us make due with "ugly tags". Good point David, when somebody looks into it, they see the real objective.
 
Drnarln,

You will see a lot more people change their minds about point systems after they draw their tags. Right now they are all invested waiting their turn. Once they go back to the bottom of the heap with all the youngsters, they will want point system reforms.
 
None of the systems are perfect but guys that draw & then scream for change bother me.I made a trip to Arizona to get the hunter ed point so I would have max for deer and hope to draw 13B archery someday!If I draw,I'll wish the next guy in line good luck!
David
 
I actually have max points for deer, so it's good for me for deer currently. Never drawn. Sucks for my kids who had no opportunity to get in from the start. What about making hunts like strip deer, early rifle bull elk, and such with 1% draw odds once in a lifetime, especially for nonresidents?

I really did like it better before points, might get a strip tag if you get really lucky, but could use your second choice to go hunting.
 
"I really did like it better before points, might get a strip tag if you get really lucky, but could use your second choice to go hunting."

There's a lot of truth to that. I wish they would simply go back to the way it used to be......earn a point if not drawn for 1st or 2nd choice and have another number in the hat for next year. No 20% set aside for max BP.......and when 10% of the tags are reached, no more NR draw for that hunt. It made it simple, those with most points had the best odds, but there's always a chance someone with one point could draw.

BOHNTR )))---------->
 
I agree with you Roy, The different breakdowns are almost just getting in the way. Even if they did not give points at all, you would have a better chance to draw that tag, may take 1 year or may take 20 yrs, but right it is a garauntee to take many of you 13.
 
I think the current system on these tags is just fine. We tried to get the commission to listen but in many ways their wisdom on this is sound. I've never had a strip tag or a 9 or 10 bull tag and I've lived here more than 50 years. As to the plight on the NR you have ample opportunity to draw a tag in another unit just like we do. If your desire is only for the best then you'll have to wait to draw "that" tag. There are literally thousands of AZ residents that have NEVER drawn any of those tags and those of you that have well you got your opportunity and for you to push for that second opportunity as a NR speaks volumes. There will never be enough supply to meet the demand of these tags so why would we want to make it any easier to allow a NR to get drawn for these tags? Sorry KRP and others but making things easier for nonresidents is not the answer to improving any residents odds at drawing any tag. The commission has the right approach on this and those NR that apply in other units know all too well that they can get drawn w/o max points! You have opportunity staring you in the face it's just not top level trophy opportunity and there just isn't enough of that to go around period. Sorry boys but this one has fallen on deaf ears in the commission and rightfully so.
 
BOHNTR,

You of all people should be QUIET! You are now looking up from the bottom of the pile. Just kidding!! You make the most of the great tags that you draw and loved that photo on the B&C web-site. Great job

Don

Oh by the way, I also have max. pts. for deer!!
 
Quote: "BOHNTR,

You of all people should be QUIET! You are now looking up from the bottom of the pile. Just kidding!! You make the most of the great tags that you draw and loved that photo on the B&C web-site. Great job

Don"



:) It's not me I worry about.......it's my son or your sons or daughters who don't have max points because of their age. The way the system is now they can NEVER (mathematically) draw a premium (Strip, 9 or 10 archery bull) tag. That doesn't seem like a smart way to recruit young hunters and keep them interested in the game.

I don't mind starting back in the game with just two points (loyalty and hunter Ed). As a bowhunter, I can still hunt some units every year. But for my comrades who choose to hunt with a firearm and/or those who just get into hunting and want to hunt a premium unit, there should be a chance for them to draw as well. I've felt that way for years.

BOHNTR )))---------->
 
The commissions ears are deaf to any issue unless there are dollar signs involved, screw the commission. Wisdom?

This bastardized system we have needs to go.

First it's BP's, then it's 10% max on NR's, then 10% pass draw, then 20% pass draw. It's like a fricking politician uping your tax. It's become a socialist crybaby party system and we're paying out 20% in welfare right now. Hey let's make it 50% or a PP system where it's 100% Tax.

All that happens now is they have created a false preception of entitlement to many and class divisions. Any new rule that is advantagous to one class will be disavantagous to others. The only way to even it out is up taxs and invent more money (tags)as this side bitchs and then that side. Pretty much the same thing that is happening in our country now.

The NR situation is BS, no way should there be a system that excludes someone from submitting money and not have at least a tiny chance of drawing. This is a lottery system! The 10% max NR was fine until they upped the tax to 20%. Change the 10% or change the 20% pass back to 10% so our taxs are lower.

The wise thing to do is get rid of all the bonuses, entitlements, and restrictions. Pure lottery, my luck against your's. Odds will work out over the years. If an area has 75% res and 25% NR apps then that will probably be the way it will work out over a period of time. If res don't think it's fair they need to step up and out number the NRs more than 75%.

The same system we used to have before '91.

I love the wisdom of the commission on archery deer issues. Not!

Kent
 
LAST EDITED ON Jun-28-09 AT 10:13AM (MST)[p]I think the current is good enough. That being said, I guess some changes could happen, but if they do take place, what will others have to sacrifice? I, myself, never apply for the strip, sure I would like to hunt it for myself sometime. This does not meen that the current system should change. I have not worried about getting max points, ever, I hunt the tags I get and hunt as hard as I can. Before the max pool was applied to deer, you never heard any of this whining, people understood what they were getting into, now, I think the payoff is just to long for some people to wait. Most of what we are hearing is "venting".
AZ provides many great opps, finding the right one for an individual is the key!
Travis
 
Travis, that's true and venting is what it is.

The thread was titled 20% max points/10% cap. That's just caused a fairness issue that a lot of wisdom wasn't put into before it was implimented.

I also don't try for these popular hunts, even though this year I did put in for 12AW early, I've never even been in Kaibab let alone hunt it, for a forth gen Az I thought maybe I should at least try for it once. I count on the "ugly tags" also, do fine with animals and hunt often.

If there wasn't a push to up the % of entitlements I wouldn't care, since there is, the only thing to do is push back in the other direction not just stand there or get bowled over.

I love my great state of Arizona, I want her to be fair as possible. To me the 10%/10% deal was livable.

Kent
 
LAST EDITED ON Jun-28-09 AT 11:20AM (MST)[p]When you can't create opportunity within your own state all you have left is to come up with ways to get those that do to give up a little of theirs. This is what is at the root of this issue 100%. The one factor that is missing here is that where is the NR giving up any of HIS opportunity in this equation. It's easy to take opportunity away from others when you don't give up anything in return. The money doesn't matter because that's the cost of doing business in the equation.
 
Then it's just a matter of differing opinion.

I don't care how unfair another state is, that's their problem, they can keep their unfairness and don't copy it here, like the rest of the political BS that is imported.

The 20% was forced on the commission by well meaning Resident sportsman to help their brother NR's ? Was there a survey ?

If there are hunts that exclude the possiblity of having at least one tag available for anyone it's not a lottery. In that case I submit that we should go by linage of family and those that have contributed the most in our state should go in order of picks. I'm 4th on my father's and debatable 5th on my mother's. My father's side were miners, farmers, ranchers, from Safford to Globe To Mesa. My Mother's side were educaters and farmers from Prescott/Cottonwood to Tucson to Mesa. Both My Great Grandfather and Grandfather were big in the educational developement of our state. My GG was in the process of building the Palace in Prescott with a partner when he died in a horse wreck on Mingus Mt hunting bears and lion for bounty, he never got credit for it is a family story.

IMG_0001_NEW_0001.jpg


There are different levels of Residency now, what % should we give to someone that only has a 10 year history here, 5% of tags.

I get one of the first picks, everytime.

Or I can want a lottery system that has no attachments to distort it, that's as fair as it gets with what tags we have to work with.

NR's are people too.

Where's the data on how archery is impacting the resource negatively compared to rifle. Another survey ? It's a joke not something that is real. You can't access how the herds are being impacted by looking at how many animals are within shooting distance of a road. Darn dirty archers get first crack at those roady deer, fewer left for me when I drive by. We need a survey!

Kent
 
Well Boskee, you edited all the stuff I responded to out of your post but I will let mine stand even though it my be confusing to others.

Kent
 
Kent my apology I thought I got too far off the mark of the initial post and got on a rant so I deleted it.
 
KRP. There's no system that's fair so how could one that was designed over 20 years ago with more huntable numbers proportionately and with 3-6 million more residents be in everybodys best interest today. It can't be sorry. The model simply isn't the same and that's where the rub comes in. If you're getting drawn you don't want any changes if your not then you want it tweaked. Well guess what the majority of applicants are unsuccessful and that's where the majority of the tag and application monies come from. You want a level playing field? In reality I bet you don't, just like everyone else because if we keep going the way we're going the majority will take matters into their own hands and then we'll really get some changes and you'll get that tag every 8-15 years and that will be it on a level field. Lottery's aren't fair not by a long shot so how can you sit there and tell me that a man that has 3 kids and has bought a license and put all of them into hunt for multiple years has the same vested interest as a guy that's single and foot loose and fancy free. Sorry bud it doesn't equate not one bit. If you really want to be fair which one is disportionately effected as to their capital contribution to the system? The married guy with a family. Now guess which one most likely isn't hunting in multiple states for several different species? Just how are we going to get all these people drawn that fund the department if we have a 50-80% unsuccessful draw rate? No matter how you want to slice the pie every single state out there gives it's residents preferential treatment in some manner when it comes to drawing tags and it's done for good reason. Take all those barriers away in the fainess you wish to equate to the system and your draw odds would get so much worse than they are currently by many times for sheep.

So while I respect your opinion I disagree with your thought process. The only way for hunting to survive is to get as many resident's participating as possible and the luck of the draw simply isn't making that happen. Not today not ever and in order for you to be able to hunt the state needs the other guys money to a much larger extent than the states needs yours or mine. Remember the unsucessful applicants are funding a much bigger share of the load than the successful applicants year in and year out. Together it works but only if everyone gets to enjoy the fruits of the system.

As to the issue about the NR yes they are people too and I was one of those that pushed to get them to allocate more NR tags. Previously under the old language there was a much greater possibilty for a NR to not draw any tags period on some hunts. So what they're getting today is much better comparitively. Is is perfect hell no it's not but we'll never get it changed until we have a commission that wants to listen. But in all fairness there's only a few hunts where they can't draw a tag unless in the max point pool and you want to know something most of the guys in those pools on those hunts don't want the system changed because they've paid their dues. Most of them could have had an Arizona tag unless they only wanted the creme de la creme and some of them have had more than one of those. So It's not that unfair and at some point in the future it'll get changed to a % of tags in the max points pool but then their odds will get worse because they'll be compeating with all the residents just like before. But in reality if you gave them a flat 20% they will be asking for more the very next draw so the amount is fair in most cases.

I didn't disagree with you about the archery data but then I've had a few conversation with people within the department that seem to support the fact that some of the hunts are being disportioately successful using different techniques for hunting. My premise was that's it's being done with all weapons not just a bow but then again you can't just walk down and buy an OTC rifle permit now can you and on some hunts the methods are impacting the resource. These guys (G&F) are hunters so why would they want to pass anything unless it wasn't detrimental to the resource? They're taking tags away from themselves too. I can't think of too many reasons since they've done a pretty good job thus far. Who's the one charged with managing the resource here and on what side of the fence are most of the parties that are opposing these changes? If you take emotion out of it and look at the game management it's pretty simple to understand and when it comes to game management most hunter's never cracked a book unless they had too but yet the professionals are all wet. I don't ever recall our department stockpiling animals for any reason even when we as sportsmen encouraged them to do so in the past. So why all the opposition now when it will only lead to more huntable numbers in the future? NOw there's a question that really deserves a hard look and I'll bet opportunity and $$ aren't too far apart on both points, and yet the department is on the conservative side on both. Hmmmm.
 
Boskee your long post deserves a good reply but I only have a short time sorry.

I will have to look it's been awhile, but the amount of applicants haven't risen with the amount of population growth, the deer tags have decreased though, the elk tags have increased. Not to the extent that the old system somehow won't work. Now with BPs there is like a 400% increase in lottery # given out, I'm guessing that the average is 3 bps per person, no time to check it. So it wasn't the old system that can't handle the pressure it's the new.

Taking 10% out of the system didn't help kids odds, taking 20% sure didn't help them out. BPs would save them, except they don't have many, so they are in a 80% draw instead of 100%. Making sure that a NR doesn't get one more tag than their quota will open the flood gates for the families. Nope.

Anyone that want's a deer tag can have one, families and kids alike. There isn't some majority out there clamoring for change that will make it years to draw. There is a vocal minority that thinks it's rights to the few premium hunts require tweeking the system even more so that 3 people won't get out of turn and jump ahead. Or NRs don't have a chance at at least one tag.

The old system was much more family and kid friendly. If in the elk draw the average BP is 4 and there are 80,000 apps for 23,000 tags, then a kid or wife with 1 bp has a 2 choices against 400,000 in getting a low number. If there was no bps then it would be a 1 in 80,000. I suppose they can just wait their turn.

I guess I don't understand your unsuccessful apps supplying the bulk of the money, successful applicants tag fees are much more than 7.50 and licenses are used through out the year.

As far as NRs, I never said guarantee 20%, 'up to'. Who chose the magic # of 10% anyway, the 10% pass can be changed to 20% and now some want it at 50%. But the 10% NR is untouchable though a problem was caused with the 20% pass. The 10% NR only comes into play on a small amount of hunts and tags, only the small minority that apply for these tags even care, they might lose a tag or two per hunt. If the 20% pass rule hadn't been put in place then the NR 10% rule would still be fine.

So with the system now we have decreased the odds of the young and families with BPs. Imagine if we squared points, those youngsters would be senior citizens by the time they drew.

We have decreased the families percentage of avalible tags to 80%, some are pushing for 50%.

We have eliminated some NRs out of some hunts.

Imagine a system where a youngster had the same odds as the guy that's paranoid of someone jumping in front of him.

So yes, the old system was better for everyone but the 'super' hunters.

I also have connections in the WM dept and my sources put the archery deer issues squarely on the commission's bias and not on reliable data. We'll have to just disagree on the accurracy of the sources.

Kent
 
KRP my point about the fee revenue was that with the majority of applicant's being unsuccessful they are always contributing the larger portion of that revenue stream. It really jumps up there when you add license sales into the figure and remember under the old system they only had to purchase a licence if drawn now they have to retain bonus points, loyalty points etc.


I have to repectfully disagree with you on that lack of majority interest speaking out on the process. That little survey that was taken spoke loud and clear about the majority's opinion of disapproval on participation. Look at all the hoops and changes we've encountered with that little item from the former commission. I'm not saying it was fair but it was clear that many were dissatisfied and they took action on it.

Kent as to the departmental information we may be talking about two different points. I think we may both be correct on this from our perspective. I see where you're coming from and I agree with your point. In fact I addressed the commission about the fact that if we are taking 6 deer out of a unit by archery and it's causing such a negative impact then we must really have bigger issues than we thought. They were basing this on the 20% +/- allowable take for the method as a % of successful tag holders that they had come up with out of the blue to restrict archery further. My point was more in reference to the baiting issue and how it's impact had effected archery success and that the department felt it had a negative impact on the resource.

Regards, CA
 
WE better be careful, I bet bubbas is building his next assault off of some of the info here.......Just joking bubbas..hahahahahaha
 
Boskee, I appreciate the conversation. It makes me think about why I feel a certain way about a subject and try to put it in words. I think I'm speaking for the average hunter that isn't putting in for premium hunts but maybe I'm deluding myself.

Each spiecies have different results in the draw, deer there are left overs so most will have a tag if desired. Elk is 1 in 4 for tags and understood. Javies are the same as deer, leftovers. Sheep and buff are totally different. For some reason all draws are structured the same, I'm not toally sure about sheep and buff I don't apply for those. But mostly for this conversation I'm talking deer and elk.

The majority of hunters don't put in for premium hunts but are effected by all these tweeking and twisting of the draw to cater to the premium hunt odds. The 10% max NR and the 10% then 20% pass were implimented for premium hunt draws. Has a negative effect on the average and majority of applicants whether they realize it or not. BPs also. We have these rules now and there is no way to go back, they won't admit a mistake even if they thought they made one. So all we can do is suggest more tweeking even if we don't like the direction it's going. I can also say why I feel it was wrong to change it in the first place but that's water under the bridge.

The commission has become much more political and like all politicians can use words (surveys) to sway the general public into thinking they are helping their own cause and instead are taking away from you and giving to special interests. The majority of hunters only think about application time and then hunting time, and if someone asks them if they would want more tags they will say yes, have no idea what would be involved or the time to care. I wouldn't call it a majority of interested public speaking out in weighted surveys, more like monkeys that would grab a banana if poked though the cage with out examining it. Many in my family and friends are monkeys and could care less about what we are talking about, more tags sound good, 5 min later they could care less about thinking of it again. That's the sad reality, those with the power of voice to the masses have the power to sway, we have none.

There is no data to prove any % of harvest between rifle and archery, and no data on baiting. Just 'feelings' that it's negative. That's very scientific of them.

Only a small amount of folks won't use their license if not drawn, for some other form of hunting anyway, mostly NRs. So you have 57,000 X 7.50 for elk plus whoever didn't use their license, and if you didn't want to get a deer tag that's on you so forget the minority 7.50s in that.

Here's a link to the year 2001 study ASU made on the economic impact of hunting and fishing in our state for that year.

http://www.azgfd.gov/pdfs/w_c/FISHING_HUNTING Report.pdf

To bad the majority doesn't know, and it's their own fault they don't care to look into it, these things.

20% of tags were taken out of the general fund as entitlements to special interest groups and they will never be in those special interest groups even though they were given a BP last year for not drawing that cow tag. They don't want to wait more than a few years between tags so will never be in a max pool but every hunt is in this rule change not just the premiums and it effects them.

BPs only help those wanting to build to max for a certain tag. It's better to be 1/80,000 for a low # than 3/500,000 every year to get those low to mid elk hunts and put the 20% of tags back in to every hunt. So again this doen't serve the majority but the politicians hold up shiney BPs and convincing words. Monkeys.

Changing something in the percentages(and they do it all the time for their purposes)to allow for at least one tag to possibly be available to NRs in all hunts, will not cause families to not be able hunt. It would only involve a few tags total in the premium hunts. The 10% nr rule doen't come into play in the majority of hunts and that's where the majority of families apply.

The only voice we hear are the crybabies paranoid over someone jumping in front of them, gotta protect it. Then the commission listening to them and spoon feeding the public propagana surveys to bolster their position.

Lobbyists, Politicians, entitlements, evil NRs, archers and the dirty baiters, a duped citizenry. That could only happen in the movies right?

Oh well it's good to talk about it but nothing will change, I'm still voicing my opinion.

Kent
 
KRP a nice post. I think we largely agree on more than we disagree on (and we are really splitting hairs on the disagree items ) but that may have to do with our passion for archery. It's interesting to see somebody that shares my thought's on bonus points. Most don't even know or seem to care that it's only their lowest number in each cycle of the draw and how little that can really impact their chances until they get into the big game. They do their cross section of the stats showing how the draw was weighted according to bonus points but in reality it's still only based on one number. It doesn't take too long with 25000 different numbers to come up with the lowest getting the tags does it everything else is just floating aimlessly. I think all these guys envision a room with all those numbers flying around and you have all those chances to draw that tag. Monkeys (not bad)smoke & mirrors sound more like it's original intent. You think it's there but it's a illusion and it's clearly not! Thanks for the insight and perspective. CA
 
Yep, we are close and it's a slight tilt here and there depending on where we are at the time. Good talking with ya.

Later, Kent
 
Kent said "BPs only help those wanting to build to max for a certain tag. It's better to be 1/80,000 for a low # than 3/500,000 every year to get those low to mid elk hunts and put the 20% of tags back in to every hunt. So again this doesn't serve the majority..."

I will partially disagree here.

A lot of the general whining we hear comes from people who see others who are drawn x number of years in a row by chance, while they have not drawn in a few years. The BP helps those that have not had the luck in the draw. You can look at the draw odds and see the increase % drawn as the number of BP increases. This is especially true for early coues hunts and cow elk hunts. So to say that BP helps only those wanting max for a certain tag is not true.

But now let's consider what the 20% pass may do to the other 80%

One might initially think that removing the 20% with the most number of BP may help those remaining in the 1-2 pass by reducing the number of random numbers allocated. But not so since those 20% were awarded "guaranteed" tags.

Let's use rifle deer in 2008 unit 7 as an example. For each BP number there were the following number of applicants for the 800 tags. 2989 applicants for 800 permits.
0-548
1-1036
2-844
3-392
4-146
5-54
6-7
7-2

The 20% bonus pass gave tags to the following:
7BP-2
6-6
5-37
4-101
3-14

So that left basically those with 3 BP or less to draw.
In calculating the number of random numbers (RN) issued (#applicants x each's number of BP) there were 7839 RN for the 800 tags, or 9.8 RN/tag

After the 20% pass, the remaining 80% of the applicants had 6664 RN for the 640 remaining tags, or 10.4 RN/tag.

So, by removing the top 20% and their higher number of BP, the chances of a person in the bottom 80% drawing is actually less than if there had not been a 20% pass.

In that 80%, those with more BP still still had an increased chance of drawing over those with fewer BP.

Changes to improve some group will disadvantage another. With the 20% pass, we help the unlucky in the draw who have bided their time over years, but hurt those without max points. BPs help in general, but the 20% pass hurts the 80%.

Doug
 
RR hope all's well with you. As usual you make some very valid points. Those extra points help like you say but in reality it's not the panacea that many are led to believe it is. As one one fairly consistant rider in the more bonus point bucket I can tell you from personal experience that it hasn't been to helpful on my carnival ride unless I got to the top and I'm not a premium tag type guy as you know. I have sat there for years and years and watched as many got drawn repeatedly even NR's while I was still in the same line with more bonus points. It's definately ain't no E ticket during that process. I've found that anger management has been beneficial. :)
 
Doug, I maybe didn't tie everything together very well trying to go through multiple subjects. What you showed was close to what I was trying to say. Let me put those thoughts down in order.

"BPs only help those wanting to build to max for a certain tag. It's better to be 1/80,000 for a low # than 3/500,000 every year to get those low to mid elk hunts and put the 20% of tags back in to every hunt. So again this doesn't serve the majority..."

I shouldn't have said "only" in that sentance because I was going to say "or wait for a higher bull tag" but it didn't sound right and I left 'only' in.

Ok.

Concerning families or whoever that just want a tag every year for deer and elk even cows every other year or so, which is realistic, bps are meaningless generally speaking over a period of time, maybe it's equal. Anyone just getting into the game no matter the age is already behind the eight ball, 5 yrs to get the loyalty point. Kid, new hunter, new spouse hunter. They step in and may or may not have a hunter ed point, many adults still don't. So they are 1 in 400,000(no use to look up the real number it's big whatever it is) to get a low lottery number that will get them a 2nd choice cow tag. If there was no bps that would be 1 in 80,000. much better odds.

Now if they don't draw, and add the person that is trying for a cow tag every year but is realistic about averaging every 2.5 or 3 yrs. 1 bp isn't something that will help them over just a staight draw because now they are 2 in 400,000 rather than 1 in 80,000 for the second yr. Maybe it all even out in the wash after they've been in the system awhile but the starting block is pretty slow for the ones we want to join us in this sport.

Sure a majority will take a chance at a bull tag on their 1st choice but are realistic and not serious enough to stick it out and put a cow hunt for their second, hoping to draw anything. Some complain about not ever drawing a bull tag as they are eating their cow steaks.

In my group only three of us hold out for bull only, there are cow hunts with family/friends every year, usually it is 4 to 1 cow to bull. Last year it was 5 cows and 2 spikes killed. Hey that's the reality. Us 'bull only' up to 'trophy only' are in the minority but think we are the end all for rule changes, but not in the majority.

My statement was that 1/80,000 is better to get the 1 lottery number you need, than 1/400,000 or I'll add, 2/400,000 if you went and got a HE BP.

Because the BP situation didn't turnout to be the end all they caved and took out 10% and then 20% of all tags and like you pointed out, that pushed the odds lower for everyone in the lower teirs, had to.

I was really talking about elk and the odds of a second choice. Not getting drawn for a specific deer unit means you didn't get your higher choice, there's guaranteed tags 3 thru 5, and leftovers. Families can hunt.

Limitation of Liability - We will not be liable for damages of any kind, including, without limitation, special or consequential damages, arising out of your access to, or inability to access, this thread or your use of, or reliance upon, the opinions or the contents of this thread.

No Monkeys were harmed in the production of this thread.

Thank You.

Kent
 
well here's my 2 cents, nr's too bad, yeah we all want strip tags and early bull tags but i'm a non res now and residents should have more of a chance at those tags than us. move to az if you want better odds with your max points! you dont pay your az state taxes yet everyone feels like their rights are being violated. i would be pissed if every non res was wanting the same chance as i have in my home state. let the residents hunt the better hunts its their state! or maybe i should be pissed utah wont give me a henry's tag!
 
First off I'm a NR with max points.I might be wrong but I didn't think this thread was about giving NR's more tags then the "Up to 10% they get Now" but how the 20% effected the NR's with less then max points.Some NR's with less then max points that have used their points or started the game late hate the 20% rule.A NR with less then Max points can't draw a couple units & they want this changed!
David
 
Drnaln, yes and it should and is being addressed. As you can see there are those opposed and the reasons brought up were many and diverse, therefore the discussion becomes that way also. All this is to still say that I feel there is no reason to not allow for at least one tag to be available to NRs in every hunt number in the 80% draw.

I suppose you don't want me to continue checking out numbers to try and see just how many resident tags would actually be effected by going back to the old system without any NR restrictions at all.

Hey Doug, did you see the new BP numbers for 2009 lope and elk are out, very interesting.

http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/documents/2009PronghornandElk-BonusPointReport-1-2PassbyGenus_000.pdf

Kent
 
I would have no problem with part of the tags in ALL units being available to NR's with less the max points if those same units became once in a life-time or a 5 year waiting period was imposed.I'm all for everyone having a chance to draw 13B but once they get that tag,step aside and let others have a chance.Some guys want a 2nd go around before others get their 1rst chance.
David
PS I noticed the Henry's tag was mentioned earlier & even though I have 15 Utah points,I'll most likely never draw that tag.I just play the game & hope for the best!
 
You res. and non-res hunters are going about this all wrong.

I know some guys at the AZG&FD and I have hunted the strip - 13B
for the last 8 years in a row.

For only $19.95 and and a copy of your wifes reciept from her spa day you paid for so you could go hunting, I will tell you how I do it. You all can do it, you just need to know the right people.

This is a limited time offer. Out of state hunters, must send cash.

Steve Cheuvront
 
LAST EDITED ON Jun-30-09 AT 01:46AM (MST)[p]Sounds tempting Steve, can I mix any killin' into that 13B hunt plan?

I have a hard time sitting on the sideline when it comes to draw related posts. Here is my .02, kind of a brain dump. It has been 110 in Phoenix the last few days so I attribute my rambling to heat exposure.

- There are fewer than 1000 TOTAL truly premium deer and elk tags in Arizona each year. In most cases there are 50 or more guys FOR EACH TAG. Noone should EVER feel entitled to any Arizona tag. Even if a NR spends $2000 and 12 years to get a strip tag (licenses/tags over many years) it is a small fraction of what a Governor/auction tag would cost. For those that think 10-20 years is too long for a strip tag, I have a pile of sand in my backyard you can pound your tears into.

- Any resident that would wait 10 or more years to hunt elk or deer in his own state is not a hunter, he is simply a collector with a mild interest the outdoors (try golf or gardening and buy a head off ebay). Any non-resident that waits that long obviously has the resources to hunt multiple states and I have little sympathy for how long it takes them to draw an Arizona tag. Smart guys that need to hunt regularly understand the stats and apply for better odds hunts (ie, the ugly tags).

- The 20% pass for max point holders was stupid when it was implemented at 10% and is insanely idiotic now that it is 20%. This was a concession made to suppress the moaning of guys that didn't understand statistics (the early bull/strip applicants) or had an interest in establishing a backdoor preference point system in Arizona. This has to rate as one of the top numero uno stupidest rules AZGFD has ever implemented. Hey AZGFD, have you heard of an impact assessment? Guess not.

- The 10% total cap for NR is reasonable and consistent with other states (even though Arizona has a smaller pie to share in most cases). I cannot think of an argument in support of raising this allocation and have to believe this is unlikely to ever change.

- Time is a cost. Any hunt with low supply and high demand should be subject to a longer waiting time. Any NR kid that wants a strip rifle tag will probably get to wait long enough to bring their own kids on their hunt. Waiting for the mail to arrive doesn't make lifelong hunters out of kids. Put kids in for higher draw odds hunts and leave the trophies for them when they are old enough to buy their own tags.

- Kent mentioned ?premium hunts?. We all know which hunts are premium however allowing AZGFD to classify them officially will open the door for more ridiculous costs, taxes and entitlement opportunities. A premium designation is a lot like the 20% bonus pass, it is simply a tool to direct more scarce tags to a population of people with extra time and financial resources. WARNING ? Non-residents and rich guys would love to price out their competition with premium hunts, premium hunts are bad news.

- Some people have advocated waiting periods for successful applicants. Besides being a total bummer, they would also do little to improve odds and unfairly impact all hunts rather than the pool of high demand tags everyone fights over. Waiting periods are bad for most of us and would increase depression rates for the guys that pull the less sexy tags. Please don't Grinch my Christmas.

- All hunts should have mandatory harvest reporting. Any person or agency that advocates to the contrary must have something to hide. I have been bowhunting in Arizona with skilled hunters for most of my life (over 25 years), I know what the real success rates are and they are much lower than AZGFD is trying to claim. The success rate indicator established by AZGFD for archery deer hunts is nothing more than an arbitrary line in the sand and the fact that it will drive tag policy for other units in the future is sad.

- The baiting controversy ties into this too. Now that there are new archery seasons on the strip there are those that worry about the big bucks being artificially drawn in and killed on archery seasons (prior to the rifle seasons). Anyone that subscribes to this idea has obviously never hunted with a bow before. This argument is more about people feeling entitled to ?their share? of the trophy animals and aligns with some of the ideas mentioned above. I repeat, noone is entitled to a tag or an animal in Arizona . BTW ? Most bowhunters can still shoot tighter groups at 300 yards with a rifle than they can at 50 yards with a bow. Bowhunting is MUCH more difficult, any doubters should put their rifle back in their Rhino and leave the bowhunters alone.

- Fire the person that puts together public surveys on behalf of the Game and Fish Department. The surveys distributed by the department are confusing, misleading and generally horrible. The last survey I did (the one with all the youth hunt questions) was absolutely atrocious. I would have to believe there was some underlying motive for those questions being presented that way, I cannot imagine it was presented that strange through shear incompetence. If tag policy hinges on results from these surveys we have big problems. I smell a rat.

The draw has become convoluted and a simpler approach (like the old way) would be nice. The only problem is that AZGFD has allowed people to purchase ?bonus point only? for the last few years which seems to validate the ?points are worth $? and that simply scrapping the system and all the bonus points would be a very difficult thing to do. I would be all for reducing the pass percentage back to 10% for everyone, eliminating a pass % all together would be my real preference but I don't think that would go over very well. Leave the 10/20 rule for strip units the way it is, changing it now would benefit some of the same people that got us into the pass percentage mess in the first place (they already got their deer tag). As for once in a lifetime for non-resis, it pretty much already is.

I don't believe we need to Obama-tize the current draw process with rules and loopholes that reward those that have taken chances on hard to draw hunts and failed to draw consistently. I cannot help but parallel the tag situation in Arizona to the mortgage crisis. There were people that took out risky variable rate loans and speculated the value of their homes would go up (kind of like the people that apply for tough to draw tags in Arizona ), when the prices didn't go up (or the person didn't get drawn) they asked for government (AZGFD) assistance. Other people took more conservative loans (average bull and cow tags) and are in a better position to pay those mortgages for the long term (or get drawn more). In the end it is about understanding the process and taking responsibility and accepting the consequences for their decisions. Taken one step further, non-residents are kind of like the speculators that bought and dumped houses in Arizona over the last few years. These people purchased blocks of homes for a quick short-term gain and didn't consider the greater impact of neighborhoods if things didn't work out. Non-residents will take whatever they can get (in terms of trophy tags) because the long term impacts are arms length and well outside of there immediate concern. I don't think everyone needs a 5000 square foot house and I don't think every non-resident is entitled to an Arizona Strip tag.

One more nugget of gold....take the cow pee wafers off your fanny pack or your wife might relocate your goody bag to the front porch and spray it with Febreze. Been there, done that.

Cheers
Javihammer (a non-resident in every state but one - Arizona, you cant smoke in our bars but you CAN wear your sidearm, my home sweet home)
 
>LAST EDITED ON Jun-30-09
>AT 01:46?AM (MST)

>
.
>
>
>- Any resident that would wait
>10 or more years to
>hunt elk or deer in
>his own state is not
>a hunter, he is simply
>a collector with a mild
>interest the outdoors (try golf
>or gardening and buy a
>head off ebay). Any non-resident
>that waits that long obviously
>has the resources to hunt
>multiple states and I have
>little sympathy for how long
>it takes them to draw
>an Arizona tag. Smart guys
>that need to hunt regularly
>understand the stats and apply
>for better odds hunts (ie,
>the ugly tags).
>
>
>Cheers
>Javihammer (a non-resident in every state
>but one - Arizona, you
>cant smoke in our bars
>but you CAN wear your
>sidearm, my home sweet home)
>

I love reading and learning everyone's opinion on this matter, I think there is no perfect system, and therefore we will never all agree. I think these converstations are very constructive on educating people on the subjuect and opening people's minds to other opinions. If only our commission would listen and rationalize with some of these great posts and opinions. I am waiting on a strip deer tag, either 13 hunt. I told myself I want to do that hunt at least once, just apply until it happens. As a transplanted midwesterner, I have yet to be drawn a deer tag in AZ (because of my choice for strip or nothing). I hunt leftovers, hunt archery otc, go out of state to get my fix until then. I consider myself a "hunter" and not a "collecter" with an absolute passion for the outdoors. Please don't lump all of us into "dumb" residents just because we choose to wait on a particular hunt.
 
DubTee, Hey, don't give up the how to be a 'Premium tag' holdout in my spare time, secret. GEEZ.

That's a good understanding of the system and exactly how some of us use it at different times. Good luck in the draw.

Kent
 
LAST EDITED ON Jun-30-09 AT 09:16AM (MST)[p]Dub t you're not dumb just like the poor guy with a couple of kids that can't get drawn that keeps putting in year after year and buying that license and paying the fees. You found other alternatives and maybe this guy doesn't have the means to do those things so is he a fool? No just unlucky.

We all rationalize why the other guy doesn't get drawn and think it's because we're smarter and more intellectual than they are but in reality sometimes it all boils down to the luck of the draw. Not the choices they made, the units they picked or any other factor when hundreds of others made exactly the same choices and were drawn. So he sits at home year after year along with his kids and thinks the system is unfair when it's not because financially he can't afford to go on a hunt that's farther away and will add to the expense. If he puts in long enough he & his kids eventually be rewarded with a tags but as you can see some folks think that bonus points are a bad idea. Like you said it's all in how you look at it but economics determine a lot of the choices we make and that guy that's worked hard supporting his family deserves to hunt just as much as those of us that are more fortunate. Especially when in reality, if fate may have dealt us a different hand it could very easily be us sitting in that guys place. Remember he paid all the fees and bought the licenses for his kids and played by the rules it's just that lady luck never smiled upon him. Sometimes you implement things into a sytem purely on the basis of it being right because fairness and luck don't always go hand in hand.
 
Kent,

Thanks for the link to the 1-2 pass report for elk and antelope. Yes, some odds did change from last year.

Our projected 60% chance at rifle cow actually decreased to 30%, and the rifle bull from 16% to 10% (for the 2 hunts we applied for)

Last year the archery cow in unit 8 was 100% draw, but many noticed that, and the % became worse than normal this year.

With the number of applicants for the Nov archery bull increasing, wonder how the Sept vs Nov allocation will play out after the 3 year trial. The survey sent to Nov archery bull hunters still needs to add/include the question of whether they applied for the Nov hunt on purpose or accidentally (thinking it was the Sept hunt).

Doug
 
Maybe I came off in a way that wasn't my intention. I just wanted to simply address Javi's post that said that those residents who wait 10 years to hunt deer or elk in their home state are not hunters, but collecters, I don't agree with that, although I love to golf. I agree with you Boskee, I don't think anyone is dumb, and there is the big factor of luck involved in the draw until one reaches the 20% pass. However, I don't feel bad for someone (no matter how many kids they have) who puts in for the higher demand hunts and does not get drawn, and then complains about it. After all, we all have a choice as to what we put in for. Like many have said here, there are plenty of "ugly tags" that can be drawn rather frequently if you do your homework.
 
Doug, I have a bad feeling on the sept/nov archery bull possible switch. Please! let our new commissioner be a voice of reason on these archery and baiting issues.

I am one of the people that like the 22/23 nov archery bull tags and have been successful, but they have been established in history and the different elavation, habitat contrasts them completely from these new over the rim hunts.

There are alot of issues why this is a bad idea but looking at just one. Can't a biologist figure out that having an archery hunt during the normal transition/moving period for a species doesn't allow for scouting or pattering to play much of a factor and in this kind of hunt that's key.

I hear ya on the cow hunts. Looking at the BP stats this is why I think they don't help families and new hunters coming in to the system. These are the people I care about not the ones that just have to have a top tag or bust. Most of us put in for a higher tag, maybe not unit 9, even our kids, but are realistic and put a more reasonable 2nd choice.

Looking at one of our favorite family cow hunts we put in for. It has a claimed 50% draw rate. If there was no such thing as BPs that's what it would be even for those applying for the first year. With BPs you have to have 3 BPs to hit 48% odds. 0 is 7%, 1 is 20%, 2 is 30%. So after being in the system long enough to get your loyalty BP then yes it's 50% from then on. All because someone needs a top tag or their life isn't complete.

I like families, kids and new hunters.

I know the system will not change, this is just discussion, we just need to look at new changes and question them.

Kent
 
Looking at the unit 6A rifle cow hunt in Dec. For 2008 the draw odds were published at 35%, 3353 applicants 1st and 2nd choice for the 845 tags, real close to 4 applicants per tag. So without BP, one might expect to be drawn once every four years on average, or 25% odds. In looking at the draw report, people with 2 BP had 27% chance of being drawn.
#BP-%
0-9%
1-17%
2-27%
3-32%
4-46%
5-96%
6-88%
7-66% (% is lower as people drew their first choice instead)
8-0 (only second choice applicants)
9-0 """"

The 20% pass went down to those with 4 BP (if one has hunter ed and loyalty BPs, that means they drew a tag on the third year of applying). So with the BP system, they are drawing every third year, in essence.

By looking at the data, I would conclude that the BP system helps one draw in a more uniform pattern in that one is more likely to be drawn once every 3-4 years, as opposed to random chance without BP that may be more prone to have a person draw 2 in a row then have a long dry spell through random chance.

For families that want to hunt together, they would have a better chance of someone in the family drawing if they put in for the same hunt seperately, as opposed to all on the same app.


Doug~RR
 
Reason will prevail you have to believe. We're one stone away from new ideas and a different approach. We've seen dark days before but there was always light after the storm had passed. This storm has just about run it's course.

Success was never a high priority on those hunts Kent, opportunity was lest not we forget. It was an exercise to show there was demand and in that regard it demonstrated the demand was there ( like there wouldn't be). A good soldier never questions his orders and those came from the top.


Who knows maybe we may be able to create some things to be able to help the people you mentioned experience our outdoors a little sooner which in the end actually benefits us all.

It may not change but it will never change if we never try.
 
LAST EDITED ON Jun-30-09 AT 12:54PM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Jun-30-09 AT 12:41?PM (MST)

This is just for a fun discussion.

The reason the odds are really at 35% is because some/many of those 3353 drew their 1st choice and this was their second which effectively drops the real number of total apps per tag in each hunt. That's why it's the draw odds for both 1st and 2nd choice combined.

It's funny how a 35% and 50% odds draw could be so close in % numbers per BP group, look at the 0-3 groups for both, more research!

Looks like it depends on what hunt whether a bp may help or hurt. I wish I could cut and paste some of these individual hunts, I can't figure it out, it won't let me. Be nice to compare 10 hunts randomly and see what's up.

So with 35% with no BP system and 32% at 3 BPs (your third year applying with a HE bp no loyalty pt, you're just starting), and everything stays the same over 5 yrs. Here's what I see.

yr......no bp.....bp
1 35% 17%
2 35% 27%
3 35% 32%
4 35% 46%
5 35% 100%

Better odds with no bp system the first 2 yrs and the same the 3rd, better odds with bps in the 4th and guaranteed in the 5th.

After 5 yrs they do move up one yr with bps but you have to have them stay in the game first. no mistakes and no taking a yr off.

I like the odds of drawing in the first 3 yrs better with no bps even though it's more random after 4 yrs for newbies.

We do the 1 person per app even for the same hunts, keeps everyone going even if they don't have a tag.

Kent
 
All you guys that are dying to hunt the strip.

Why don't you come and scout and then come back during or right after the hunt and take pictures of the big boys. They are never easier to see than right after the hunt.

I don't care 13A or 13B they are both great. Not a lot of deer numbers but some outstanding bucks. Just one I saw last year at
, well a good spot, would rock side to side while I watched him
I would guess him to be 32" plus, and very tall, and on and on.

Don't wait all your life before you come to the strip. Come with a friend, and a good set of glasses, bino's, and have a great time.

Steve Cheuvront
 
Great post Steve! AZ provides many great opps, you don't have to always be killin something to enjoy yourself!
 

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