2006 WY odds

kilbuc

Very Active Member
Messages
2,143
For those NR sheep chasers with max points the odds are getting realy goood. Areas 1,2,6,7,9,10 and 23 all had 100% draw if you had max points. For example Area 2 had 4 tags but only 1 app with max points. Area 1 had 3 tags and 2 apps with max points. Lots of interesting developments. Looks like $100 app fee shuffled things around.

from the "Heartland of Wyoming"
 

HornedToad

Active Member
Messages
291
LAST EDITED ON Jun-11-06 AT 05:14PM (MST)[p]For the 2006 WY NR sheep draw, 5517 remained in the applicant pool. This was down 5239 from 10756 total applicants in 2005.

The 2006 applicant pool of 5517 is still large, and many more will have to be driven out by the $100 preference fee (or more likely... reality setting in) before those with 7 points or fewer have a reasonable chance of a preference point draw in their lifetime (assuming the current annual NR draw of 46 preference point permits and 11 random draw permits remains unchanged).

For MAX point holders (12 points going into 2007) there were 173 applicants in 2006. Of those, 34 drew preference point permits. Assuming that 1 of the randow draw permits went to a MAX point holder, and that attrition remains at about 2%, or 3 drop-outs, there should be about 135 MAX point holders going into the 2007 draw.

It will be interesting to see once WY updates its Preference Point statistics for sheep (expected following the completion of all draws sometime after July) how many 8, 9 and 10 point applicants were among the 5239 that dropped out of the system over the $100 preference point fee.

Good luck.
 

OddNut1

Active Member
Messages
552
LAST EDITED ON Jun-11-06 AT 06:44PM (MST)[p]I wish Wyoming would give us a breakdown of who had what points when they put in like other states. That would really make planning for people ALOT easier. Right now you can try to calculate these, but they are all guesses and I'm sure they have the data.

On second thought, anyone ever got this info from them? I'm thinking we need to try again, that breakdown would be awesome!

EDIT- I'm thinking a breakdown per unit versus overall "how many have x points" after the draw.

ODDNUT1
Kirt C.
Hunt Odds.com
 

MNHunter

Active Member
Messages
950
I too am interested to see the updated PP list to see where most folks dropped out. Most likely it will be those with few points but I was surprised that any max point holders bailed.

I am also looking foward to seeing the Elk points after next years darw. I was wondering how many folks opted not to purchase a point.

"Whatever you are, be a good one."
- Abraham Lincoln
 

DonVathome

Very Active Member
Messages
1,550
I too am very curious as to how many with over 7 pnts drop, I stayed in and got my 7th point in 2006.

I am hoping to be at the top in 15-20 years. Would be worth it if I get a tag in 20 years. Assuming they do not up $100 app fee, cut NR tags, or something else.

I bet, with the exception of guys within 2 points from the top, half the guys dropped out from all point numbers. I hope so.

I bet a bunch more drop in the next 2 years. Another 25% of guys with over 5 points.
 
A

ARO

Guest
i only have a couple points, but i am gonna start applying for the tag next year (might get lucky in random drawing). man i knew some guys were gonna drop out, but i never thought it would be around 50% dropout rate. but dont forget you can skip a year and still not lose your points, so some guys might decide to get back in.
i also am curious about the elk points, i put in for the point too.
 
H

huntin100

Guest
I think this is still depressing. I have 7 points. If I'm lucky I will draw a preference point tag in twenty years. That is 2k in bonus points if they stay $100 bucks. It wont. Nothing stays the same price for 20 years. Not even 10 years. The price of the tag is almost 2k now. It will likly be 5-10k in 20 years. Then you will still have to hire a guide because of the wilderness law. Except unit 5. (Unless things change.) That guide price will be at least 10k in 20 years. In 20 years. My wyoimng sheep may cost me 20-25k. I'm still not garrenteed to draw in 20 years either. I'm 43 years old now. That will make me 63. Sounds like a gamble for a dream. Maybe, I should same my money and hunt elsewhere. I would like to get at least one sheep in my life. Do you think this is correct ball park price numbers. Am I being to pestimistic? Good luck to those who have this sheep fever disease as well.
 

mainer

Member
Messages
41
huntin100: It looks like you may be 100 when you get one!! Well you've convinced me, I'm going to let my 8 sheep points slide next year,as I did with my moose points this year. At age 55, it's putting good money after bad. Does anyone have any thoughts on how the wolf factor will play into the overall scheme? Guy
 

MNHunter

Active Member
Messages
950
LAST EDITED ON Jun-12-06 AT 02:42PM (MST)[p]huntin100,
Unfortunately, the numbers you put up will probably be right. States never reduce the costs of the tags or preference points. I have a feeling a lot of the folks who have a lot of points are older and will see the reality is that they may not draw before they are too old to hunt sheep. At 27, I think I have a little more time than most to play the game. Overall it is getting more and more expensive just to play that folks may have to cut down the apps they put out. I'd love to be able to apply in ID, OR, and NV but I just can't spend any more $$ on long shots.

Forgot to add, I think that more people will drop out again this year in WY because if they don't put in and they waited to see how things panned out, they will automatically lose their points. I'm in that boat with my moose points. It looks like I'm still in but I'm letting them go.

"Whatever you are, be a good one."
- Abraham Lincoln
 
H

huntin100

Guest
I'm just trying to use my extra money for hunting wisly. I may be better in trying to by a discounted sheep hunt. Or try my luck in the other 5 states I apply for. Moose is another story. There are lots of places you can hunt moose in wyoing with 6 points. There are lots of public ground. Non-wilderness areas. Guide is not needed. I would'nt give up on moose too soon.
 
W

Warren

Guest
I've got 20 good hunting years ahead of me, with reasonable health. I've got to stay in the game for the forseable future.
 

MNHunter

Active Member
Messages
950
"There are lots of places you can hunt moose in wyoing with 6 points. There are lots of public ground. Non-wilderness areas. Guide is not needed. I would'nt give up on moose too soon. "

Huntin100, I know what you mean about the moose chances but I can draw a moose tag here in MN easier for $300. Not a Shiras, but still a moose tag. If I want a Shiras, I will try ID. I only had a few points so to let them go is not a big deal.



"Whatever you are, be a good one."
- Abraham Lincoln
 

DonVathome

Very Active Member
Messages
1,550
huntin100, I agree with your sheep future info, very pricey!

I have 7 pnts this year and I am 34, I am going to stick it out, I figure it will take 20 years, long shot, but it is the only way I know I can get a decent sheep tag. I will hunt unguided, but the problem is unguided units will begin to require more pnts. Who knows, I hope when the time comes I might be able to line up a local who just wants to tag along, so I can hunt wilderness.

Good luck. It is getting HARD and pricey to apply out west.
 
R

RACKMASTER

Guest
YOU GUYS HONESTLY THINK $100. for a pt will be the same in 10/20yrs I say it goes up $50.00 every 5! just deer and elk for me!
rm
 

HornedToad

Active Member
Messages
291
I was told this past week by Wyoming G&F that the Preference Point totals for sheep (after the 2006 draw and going into the 2007 draw) will be posted on July 7th.

This information will show the distribution of the 5,000+ sheep applicants for 2006 by preference point holdings, which should provide some insight into the "years required to draw" for those remaining in the pool.

It will be interesting to see how many applicants from 2005 with 8 or more points dropped out in 2006.

Good luck.
 

DonVathome

Very Active Member
Messages
1,550
I have a buddy who put in for the first time and bought a point, skipped every other state like CO, not to bright! He seemed convinced it was a good use of $100, he is 40. What a waste.

I agree prices will go over $100, but, every time they go up guys drop out and I move up, glass is half full (but costs twice as much!)

My biggest fear is cutting NR tags to 10%, that would HURT.
 

ElmerFudd

Very Active Member
Messages
2,147
I dropped Garth's $100 subscription to stay in WY sheep at one point off the top. The main thing that bothers me is the nonresident guides required in the wilderness requiremennt. The $2000 tag stretches my budget enough, another $5000 for a guide would be out of he question. I think I can afford the points gouge. Sucks, but what does an addict do?
 
A

archeryelk

Guest
Stayed in this year but with 7 points not sure it is worth staying in the future.

Archer
 

MNHunter

Active Member
Messages
950
Think they will still release the PP totals today??

"Whatever you are, be a good one."
- Abraham Lincoln
 

HornedToad

Active Member
Messages
291
I was told last week by WG&F that the PP information would be posted today, July 7th. But I just spoke with a person in their office, and he said that they don't know when this information would be available. His advice, "Just keeping looking for it on the website... it'll be posted eventually". That's helpful.

This seems like the kind of information that a simple program could spit out in an instant.
 

Click-a-Pic ... Details & Bigger Photos
Top Bottom