2009 statistics!

[mlycrzy]

LAST EDITED ON Feb-17-10 AT 08:18PM (MST)[p]The 09 bonus point statistics are now up. Read em and weep boys

http://www.ndow.org/hunt/apps/bonus/index.shtm

 

[idhunters]

Well that explains a few things.

 

[SHANEWA300]

they make no sense! there were 70 NR tags for a unit, archery hunt. says 38 succesful!! wtf lol

 

[6x7]

I think the numbers look like that on the 101-108 archery hunt because 38 drew as ther first choice It did fill to the 70 tags in the first round but by 2nd 3rd and so on.

 

[BBB]

Those figures are depressing, and they are only showing first choice applicants on the unsucc. category.

 

[mlycrzy]

LAST EDITED ON Feb-18-10 AT 05:53PM (MST)[p]I agree BBB! Every year it gets a little tougher as far as draw odds go. I still get out every year though as alot of my family and friends hunt so there is always a tag or two to fill. I just wish my name was always on one

 

[JB148]

mulycrzy,

Why did you have to post that? It made me feel not so well.I think I would have been better off knowing, and continued to be fat dumb and happy thinking I was headed to Nevada sooner than later.JB

 

[mlycrzy]

The 09 bonus point and harvest statistics are now available on NV's web site. Looks like we can start applying on Friday the 18th.

 

[ElmerFudd]

They show total successful and number of first choice applicants at each point level. You can't tell what choice the successful applicants used or how many applicants listed it as a lower choice....So the draw vodds are likely much worse than they appear for the hunts that appear easier to draw...Probabally they are close for the tougher to draw hunts.

 

[BigFin]

Fudd:

I think you hit the mark on that one. Or at least that is how it seems for me.

Last year, my son and I applied with an average of 5 points. Our last choice was archery 61-68.

If you look at the chart, you would think it is nearly impossible not to draw with 5 points, when NV squares your points, giving us 26 chances to get a low random number.

But here is the draw odds you would get by looking at the their chart.

6 points - 100%
5 points - 100%
4 points - 100%
3 points - 75%
2 points - 50%
1 point - 4.5%
No points - 0%

Since we used this as our final choice and did not draw, I know we are not on that list.

So, our application does not even show up on their chart, as we did not draw. There could have been a lot of guys with even more points than us who did not draw, and they would not show up on the chart either, unless it was their first choice.

Like you, I suspect the odds in NV are way worse than is published in that chart, and much worse than the odds published by the services.

And given how difficult it would be to actually predict odds with the little bit of data NV provides, I don't think any of the services will be able to provide odds that are specific. The best use is for the general idea of what units seem to be the most in demand, but beyond that, not much can be taken from that chart.


"Hunt when you can - You're gonna' run out of health before you run out of money!"

 

[mlycrzy]

Bigfin I agree! I used to get excited looking at the odds on some of my "sleeper" units. It basically comes down to drawing a really low draw number. Im looking forward to when my boys can start putting so I can at least go hunting every year as the youth tags are fairly easy to draw in most units.