2024 Seed Number Drawing

T

Togwotee

Long Time Member
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Anyone know when the seed drawing is this year? if it's like past years it should be this week or the following week at the latest.
 
Thought I read a few weeks ago that they would be posted by the end of the week after the application deadline. But I can’t find them, or where I read that. Will keep looking.
 
My numbers aren't showing either. they should come on any time now.

I can predict what I'll draw about 95% of the time with the seed numbers. so getting them gets the depression started a few weeks early.
 
Found this
Guess our application numbers will post after 5/25/24.
Results will post by 6/12/24
  • Change your mind after applying? You have until May 25 to change your hunt choice through your online account or license sale agent.
SEASONSERIESAPPLICANT TYPEDATE SUBMITTEDHUNT(S)CHECK-IN NUMBERAPPLICATION NUMBERAPP STATUSACTIONS
2024Buck DeerIndividual05/06/2024Point Saver option selected in lieu of hunt choice(s).Not ApplicableVisible After Edit DeadlineActiveViewEdit
 
Amazing how involved some of us get for such slim odds. Like being a kid Christmas morning. 😎😎😎

Interesting it see how close (or far away) we were from getting a tag.
 
Togwotee said:
My numbers aren't showing either. they should come on any time now.

I can predict what I'll draw about 95% of the time with the seed numbers. so getting them gets the depression started a few weeks early.
Click to expand...
WHat do you consider a good number?
 
App number is your random number for each hunt code.
The seed number, for each hunt series (100, 200, 400, etc) is the number created by the public and they issue tags going up from that number instead of up from zero like other states. Makes it more random since the public picks numbered balls out of the hopper to create the seeds.
You have no idea what's good until the seed numbers are generated.
 
What you're hoping for is a seed number slightly below your application number, slightly above your application number is the worst. you're screwed unless you have the required points.

Or is it the other way around?
 
Togwotee said:
What you're hoping for is a seed number slightly below your application number, slightly above your application number is the worst. you're screwed unless you have the required points.

Or is it the other way around?
Click to expand...
Yep, if I remember right. One number under the seed number is the furthest away.
 
Here is a rule of thumb. Divide 10 million by the number of applicants. Example 10 million divided by 500 applicants is 20,000. If there are 4 tags you would want to be within 80,000 to THINK you have a chance, Because the numbers are random there is no way to know where they will fall. This is just a way to get your hopes up or crush your dreams before the actual draw.

If the seed number is 5,123,220 and your application number is:

5,123,224 you are getting a tag

5,200,000 you are mathematically in the hunt

5,300,000 It could happen but probably not

5,400,000+ better luck next year
 
desperatehills said:
Here is a rule of thumb. Divide 10 million by the number of applicants. Example 10 million divided by 500 applicants is 20,000. If there are 4 tags you would want to be within 80,000 to THINK you have a chance, Because the numbers are random there is no way to know where they will fall. This is just a way to get your hopes up or crush your dreams before the actual draw.

If the seed number is 5,123,220 and your application number is:

5,123,224 you are getting a tag

5,200,000 you are mathematically in the hunt

5,300,000 It could happen but probably not

5,400,000+ better luck next year
Click to expand...
Very impressive. You better build an app for this before someone else does.

The Oregon seed number process is kinda fun. It does seem to build transparency and infallibility. But I'm sure there is still a way that an insider could build a hack to steal tags.
 
Crampy said:
Very impressive. You better build an app for this before someone else does.

The Oregon seed number process is kinda fun. It does seem to build transparency and infallibility. But I'm sure there is still a way that an insider could build a hack to steal tags.
Click to expand...
I don’t understand why they don’t simplify their system like Colorado and just give everyone a number, invert the number, then divide that number by the number of genders you think exist.
 
Crampy said:
Very impressive. You better build an app for this before someone else does.

The Oregon seed number process is kinda fun. It does seem to build transparency and infallibility. But I'm sure there is still a way that an insider could build a hack to steal tags.
Click to expand...

How's an insider going to hack the public seed number process of drawing balls out of the hopper?
You already have your app numbers, the drawing is over the second they pull the 9th digit to create the seed number.
 
Last edited:
WapitiBob said:
How's an insider going to hack the public seed number process of drawing balls out of the hopper?
You already have your app numbers, the drawing is done the second they pull the 9th number.
Click to expand...
Seems to be one of the most transparent and fair draw systems currently being used…

Horniac
 
WapitiBob said:
How's an insider going to hack the public seed number process of drawing balls out of the hopper?
Click to expand...
Of course that transparent public step is not hackable.

None of us are given the ENTIRE list of names and app numbers before the seed number is drawn from the hopper. Now THAT would be a transparent process.
 
You have your app number now, and you'll see the seed numbers drawn. there's nothing they could do that's more open or fair than that. it makes no difference who draws the number it's random and they have no control on it.
 
Crampy said:
Of course that transparent public step is not hackable.

None of us are given the ENTIRE list of names and app numbers before the seed number is drawn from the hopper. Now THAT would be a transparent process.
Click to expand...
🤡
 
Anyone have a link to todays Seed Number Draws? Been looking online but cannot find it. Only come up with past years draws.
Thanks
 
IMG_2580.png
 
I do t think results are available yet, the “no hunt wins” is there by default.
Check this link.

How to check your controlled hunt draw results | Oregon Department of Fish & Wildlife

It's easy to check your results, and purchase your tag, on the ODFW electronic licensing system. NOTE: Once the draw results begin loading into the system, they will load one series at a time. If you want to see all of your results at once, wait until the end of the day when all the series have...
myodfw.com myodfw.com
 
Was wondering how close one has to be in seed numbers to your app numbers to be in the running for a mountain goat tag? I’m 320,961away from the seed #. Guessing still too far away but thought I’d ask. Thanks
 
Too far on the goat. Divide the number of applications last year into 10,000,000. You will get a number. Take that number and add it to the seed number. If there is 1 tag that’s generally who will get the tag. If it’s 2 tags add that amount again. This is just an estimate of where your number has to be for. Tag
 
Don't feel bad, I was 809,324 off in the wrong direction on my sheep app.
In the Sheep raffle I was out when the second number was drawn. f
Felt good that 2 of my 13 numbers made it through the first number. 🤣🤣🤣🤣
devobrodie said:
So I am only off by just under 8 million on my sheep application, do I have a chance?
Click to expand...
 
LIK2HNT said:
Don't feel bad, I was 809,324 off in the wrong direction on my sheep app.
In the Sheep raffle I was out when the second number was drawn. f
Felt good that 2 of my 13 numbers made it through the first number. 🤣🤣🤣🤣
Click to expand...
I think on all but 1 tag I was out after the first number 😫
 
Buzzy said:
Was wondering how close one has to be in seed numbers to your app numbers to be in the running for a mountain goat tag? I’m 320,961away from the seed #. Guessing still too far away but thought I’d ask. Thanks
Click to expand...
Wish you luck.
Elkhorn #2 statistically would need to be within 4,000 for a win (mathematically) and within 8,000 for a slim to no chance. Giving that I calculated correctly. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
But you never know.
 
Skidmore said:
So what does my points do for me ? It already shows I didn’t win any hunts for 2024
Click to expand...
This got me thinking- if I have points, how can I just have one random number? I should have multiple and then they used the one that is most advantageous when compared to the seed number? pls explain.
 
Hackleback said:
This got me thinking- if I have points, how can I just have one random number? I should have multiple and then they used the one that is most advantageous when compared to the seed number? pls explain.
Click to expand...

You get one per hunt series, as shown on your controlled hunt page.
 
The preference point pool starts at the top and works down until the 75% is gone, so the seed number makes no difference until you get to the last point tags in that given number. then the closest applicants get a tag and the rest don't.
 
I've been buying points for the first few years for D/E/A this is the first year I'm trying for a tag. New to the seed number thing but based upon what I've read here being only 85k above the deer 100 series seed # is really good?
 
Could be, depends on how many tags are available and how many applicants there are. and of course, if you have enough points you don't care about the seed number.
 
Bravearrow17 said:
I've been buying points for the first few years for D/E/A this is the first year I'm trying for a tag. New to the seed number thing but based upon what I've read here being only 85k above the deer 100 series seed # is really good?
Click to expand...

That's pretty close! Depends on how many tags are available and the number of applicants. I'd say you'd draw anything that took 4-5pts or less being that close!
 
Is there any way to see how many applicants there were for each unit this year? It’s almost worse when you think you might have a chance at a sheep tag. I can’t stop calculating different numbers and scenarios!
 
125nontypicalforky said:
Is there any way to see how many applicants there were for each unit this year? It’s almost worse when you think you might have a chance at a sheep tag. I can’t stop calculating different numbers and scenarios!
Click to expand...

They won't release the application/summary reports until after the results come out. The only thing you can use now to calculate out your seed/app number chances are last years applicants vs this year's number of tags. It'll still get you super close percentages. If you really want to nerd out you can get 5 year averages to get a little more precise.
 
Usually I am off by a few million every draw on all the species I applied for. This year for three species I am within 300k. Closer, but still way to far away.
 
Maybe we need a contest to see who is farthest away from the seed numbers
Ha ha ha
None of mine are even close
 
sticksender said:
Think I beat you....my sheep app # is roughly 9.9 mil off, meaning just under the seed number. Saddest possible outcome....lol :cry:
Click to expand...
I am not sure how it works, but I was 8M under the seed number, I initially thought that was a good thing, but apparently not! It's my first time applying in Oregon so maybe I didn't deserve to get a good number!!
 
How do you find your number? Is it your application number, or something else? This seed thing is annoying the $hit outta me but now more curious to figure it out than whether I drew.
 
How does seed number play into having points? If I was to have enough points to presumably put me in the 75% pool and not in the random 25% for a controlled hunt ? Is seed number still relevant?
 
DoubleU said:
How does seed number play into having points? If I was to have enough points to presumably put me in the 75% pool and not in the random 25% for a controlled hunt ? Is seed number still relevant?
Click to expand...
I believe seed numbers would be used as a tie breaker. Meaning 5 guys with equal points and only 3 tags left. Closest to seed number would get the tags.
 
Looks like the actual draw is coming out on the 12th of this month? Do they often times come out a day or two early or stick to the date typically??
 
Does anybody have any happy stories about being too far off on your numbers but still drawing a tag? I’m sure you can’t imagine why I’m asking! I should’ve paid more attention in statistics class. If the same amount of people apply in my unit for bighorn sheep as last year I would need to be around 25,000 off and I am 41,000 off. All I want is for somebody to say I got a chance😁
 

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