24 draw odds

[jhibbs]

It will be interesting to see what happens in the drawings this year with the new 75/25 split for NR deer licenses. I am considering putting in for a 4th season tag, which by the old 65/35 split, I would have had one point above what it took to draw the tag in 2023. I’m thinking it is definitely going to iffly at best this year, we’ll see .

 

[Deercy]

I love draw odds and trends.

 

[jhibbs]

Me too, it’s going to be interesting to see how this affects the point creep for non-residents. I don’t think it will make a significant difference for most units, but some are bound to s a big jump in points required.

 

[COLO3D]

I think the more dramatic impact will come from people dumping points ahead of the wolves taking their toll.

 

[Mallardsx2]

There will be a 2-point jump across a TON of units this season.

That 10% of the tags is going to really affect a lot of people much more than people realize. They should have implemented this in 2025 IMHO.

I can't wait for 2025. I anticipate that the CPW will make people burn their points for "OTC" tags and any A-list tags.

Its time the freeloading "have your cake and eat it too" types (me and most I know lol) pay the piper to get those "OTC" tags.

COLORADO NEEDS TO GET POINT HOLDERS THROUGH THE SYSTEM. MAKE PEOPLE BURN THEIR POINTS FOR A TAG.

This is coming from a guy who is 100% ok with only hunting Colorado every three or 4 years.....

OH, and take points for the re-issue A-list tags too. I got one of those this season and didn't have to use any of my points for it which I think is nonsense. My tag was "worth" a bunch of points.

 

[Crampy]

I think a couple points of creep in 2024 is very possible.

Especially for mid to high point elk as guys want to get prepared for the presumed retirement of OTC elk.

And the smart reissue whores will want to get zeroed out before the presumed change to reissue to use points. Those guys will stay at zero points the rest of their lives. But they will want to use up their saved points one last time in the draw.

Of course, maybe neither of those things will happen. But they just seem so obvious at this point.

The huge AZ jumps in 2023 have taught some folks that you need to act sooner or creep can jump right over you.

 

[LIK2HNT]

I think AZ may back down a little. I think all the hype did not amount to much. I do feel people with top points are realizing how out of reach some of the top tier units are. Therefore their stepping down to lower units creates unit creep.

 

[RRCowboyStar]

I will be curious if OTC units go to draw, how many will burn the points they have been building to hunt those units that were previously OTC. Will there be fewer applicants? or will it spread out the pool as there will be a lot more units to apply for?

 

[HntHrdr]

Yep we are fixing to find out will be interesting indeed.

 

[Servehim]

Lots of guys with 15-20 points are realizing they won't catch up on top tier units before they get to old ,example being 201 in Colorado . Many have shifted to other units. I could have drawn my desired unit for a muzzy elk hunt 5 years ago but was holding off for the right time in my schedule..mistake. Now I find myself 1-2 point behind because of so many high point guys coming to realize they didn't want to wait until they were 70 to hunt.

 

[Mallardsx2]

I will be curious if OTC units go to draw, how many will burn the points they have been building to hunt those units that were previously OTC. Will there be fewer applicants? or will it spread out the pool as there will be a lot more units to apply for?

Unless they take points for any A-list tag, you will see people do the same old crap. They will apply for those top tier units and then they will simply put that new "OTC" tag as their second choice. They will then draw the "OTC" tag without using any of their points because those old OTC units will have thousands of available tags that will go unsold in the first round, and nothing will change.

The CPW commissioners are so stupid and uneducated (even with the hand holding of the draw process working group) that I am sure they will choose something none of us even expected. They really are clueless. Just listen to one of their meetings, IF you can stand it. It's the blind leading the blind on those meetings. On most topics they have a panel of so called "experts" advising them on what to do based on polls and data, but they just do whatever suits their fancy that particular day.

Thats what you get when you let DEI champions have the final say and control on policies.

You simply can't expect much problem solving from an agency that can't even implement mandatory harvest reporting via a SIMPLE smart phone app. lol

 

[nripepi]

Unless they take points for any A-list tag, you will see people do the same old crap. They will apply for those top tier units and then they will simply put that new "OTC" tag as their second choice. They will then draw the "OTC" tag without using any of their points because those old OTC units will have thousands of available tags that will go unsold in the first round, and nothing will change.

It can definitely change if they limit tag numbers in these new OTC elk units. If there is not a demand to use a point as a first choice then it is what it is. I really don't think any A list tag that you draw as 2-4 choices should use points in a preference point system.just make it all draw and see what happens. I bet if they just slightly limit tags these new areas will start taking a point to draw for all weapons, especially for non-residents. This is from someone that doesn't hunt OTC currently.

 

[Mallardsx2]

It can definitely change if they limit tag numbers in these new OTC elk units. If there is not a demand to use a point as a first choice then it is what it is. I really don't think any A list tag that you draw as 2-4 choices should use points in a preference point system.just make it all draw and see what happens. I bet if they just slightly limit tags these new areas will start taking a point to draw for all weapons, especially for non-residents. This is from someone that doesn't hunt OTC currently.

I respectfully disagree.

I believe ANY A-list (MALE Species) tag no matter when you draw it should take ALL your points.

Thats coming from a guy who hunts OTC and draw units.

The having your cake and eating it too has got to stop in Colorado.

 

[nripepi]

I respectfully disagree.

I believe ANY A-list (MALE Species) tag no matter when you draw it should take ALL your points.

Thats coming from a guy who hunts OTC and draw units.

The having your cake and eating it too has got to stop in Colorado.

How much money will that cost Colorado? I could see your case up until the tag becomes a leftover tag maybe but if there is little demand then it is a tag that isn't worth anything. I just think if they limit all elk tags like deer tags and cut back on numbers a bit it will work itself out as the experience will be better and this situation won't exist where there are leftover tags.

 

[Triple7]

I respectfully disagree.

I believe ANY A-list (MALE Species) tag no matter when you draw it should take ALL your points.

Thats coming from a guy who hunts OTC and draw units.

The having your cake and eating it too has got to stop in Colorado.

100 % agree

 

[Mallardsx2]

How much money will that cost Colorado? I could see your case up until the tag becomes a leftover tag maybe but if there is little demand then it is a tag that isn't worth anything. I just think if they limit all elk tags like deer tags and cut back on numbers a bit it will work itself out as the experience will be better and this situation won't exist where there are leftover tags.

Who cares?

Let the residents put their money where their mouths are and make up the shortage.

I/You/We have heard about 2000 residents across 5 different forums say that they would be ok to pay more for licenses if the hunting pressure was reduced.

Here is their chance to step up and make this happen.

Besides, Parks and Wildlife closed its 2023 books $42,256,844 in the black. I don't think a few million in lost sales is going to break them....

Also, and this is a very valid point. "If there is little demand then it is a tag that isn't worth anything" If this is the case then why sell it at all?? Maybe those tags shouldn't have been issued in the first place?

 

[RRCowboyStar]

I am tired of everyone worried about the loss of money from NR. ALL of the other western states survive with a 90/10 split in licenses. Or the argument that the small towns will go bankrupt without NR hunters. When I get fuel when I go hunting I can walk in the gas station and say "I am a resident" so everything is free?
No one wants to eliminate NR Hunters, just get Colorado inline with ALL other western states.
I think that if the OTC Elk units go to draw for NR hunters will reduce point creep for all but a few of the high demand units. Over time the units that were OTC should improve in quality, so those units should be worth applying for.

 

[nripepi]

Also, and this is a very valid point. "If there is little demand then it is a tag that isn't worth anything" If this is the case then why sell it at all?? Maybe those tags shouldn't have been issued in the first place?

That is the crux of the issue, it might have value to someone and they will buy it for $800 if they don't use their points but if they have to use their points it no longer has value. It is just a big unknown. Many of the other western states do not use points for 2nd choice tags like Wyoming but over the years those have started to become more valuable and there are less and less of them, I think something similar in Colorado would happen. Colorado is in a very different situation where they have had so many OTC tags in the past. I just think going to a full draw and using points on your first choice and limiting tags will help immensely and the system will work itself out like the deer system has.

It just doesn't seem quite right to me for someone who has 20 points and has hunted OTC for 20 years to be just put into this situation overnight where they might not be able to hunt elk and those licenses are just sitting there. They could try and spend those 20 points but with things likely to jump if this implemented then they might not draw. I could get on board if true leftovers (not reissues) did not take points.

 

[Triple7]

The CPW commissioners are so stupid and uneducated (even with the hand holding of the draw process working group) that I am sure they will choose something none of us even expected. They really are clueless. Just listen to one of their meetings, IF you can stand it. It's the blind leading the blind on those meetings. On most topics they have a panel of so called "experts" advising them on what to do based on polls and data, but they just do whatever suits their fancy that particular day.

^^^
This is the most correct and spot on post I’ve read on this forum.

 

[Mallardsx2]

It just doesn't seem quite right to me for someone who has 20 points and has hunted OTC for 20 years to be just put into this situation overnight where they might not be able to hunt elk and those licenses are just sitting there. They could try and spend those 20 points but with things likely to jump if this implemented then they might not draw. I could get on board if true leftovers (not reissues) did not take points.

Like I said, the days of having your cake and eating it too, need to end.

Someone/all of us, has to sacrifice something. The person with 20 points is not alone in their sacrifice...I am a NR in double digit points for multiple species, and I know that for the greater good I am going to have to take one for the team as well (as if I haven't already been a CPW punching bag for 20+ years of goalpost moving).

With the point creep that is happening something needs to be done.

 

[Triple7]

How much money will that cost Colorado?

 

[Togwotee]

Lots of guys with 15-20 points are realizing they won't catch up on top tier units before they get to old ,example being 201 in Colorado . Many have shifted to other units. I could have drawn my desired unit for a muzzy elk hunt 5 years ago but was holding off for the right time in my schedule..mistake. Now I find myself 1-2 point behind because of so many high point guys coming to realize they didn't want to wait until they were 70 to hunt.

This is true with more than 20 points, I have 25 elk points and I'm just getting into reach of the okay units. there's no way I'll ever draw a top unit.

If you have 20 or less elk points unless you're a kid you might as well draw something half decent and start over again. I wish I'd have done that. I burned 25 deer points on a hunt I never saw anything over 160 on. point creep has killed us and quality has gone down at the same time.

 

[Mallardsx2]

This is true with more than 20 points, I have 25 elk points and I'm just getting into reach of the okay units. there's no way I'll ever draw a top unit.

If you have 20 or less elk points unless you're a kid you might as well draw something half decent and start over again. I wish I'd have done that. I burned 25 deer points on a hunt I never saw anything over 160 on. point creep has killed us and quality has gone down at the same time.

Seriously dude? Just getting to the "Ok" units? lol You passed the "Ok" units 20 years ago.

You can draw some great units at your point level. It won't be the northwest corner, but you can draw some awesome units with that number of points....

 

[Deercy]

Who cares?

Let the residents put their money where their mouths are and make up the shortage.

I/You/We have heard about 2000 residents across 5 different forums say that they would be ok to pay more for licenses if the hunting pressure was reduced.

Here is their chance to step up and make this happen.

Besides, Parks and Wildlife closed its 2023 books $42,256,844 in the black. I don't think a few million in lost sales is going to break them....

Also, and this is a very valid point. "If there is little demand then it is a tag that isn't worth anything" If this is the case then why sell it at all?? Maybe those tags shouldn't have been issued in the first place?

Resident odds are doing just fine. Why would we need to use points for 2nd choice, or vouchers? Do away with otc for nonresidents, and try that 1st. My draw strategy seems to be working just fine. I hunt every year in areas nobody apparently wants to hunt, and look forward to areas that are more special. There is so much opportunity out there I run out of time well before I run out of money, and I'm not rich. I would gladly pay more, as a resident, if nonresident percentage is cut, but my problem is not money or tags, it's figuring out how to fit in all those hunts.

 

[Togwotee]

Seriously dude? Just getting to the "Ok" units? lol You passed the "Ok" units 20 years ago.

You can draw some great units at your point level. It won't be the northwest corner, but you can draw some awesome units with that number of points....

Since I have 25 points obviously I haven't hunted elk much in Colorado, but from what I'm reading and seeing the pictures outfitters are posting a 300 bull is what you're looking for with my points. that's on the low end of okay in my opinion.

If I'm wrong correct me, but the best tag I can draw is 61 1st and that's a 300 type hunt from what I see. and if it's a fun hunt I can live with that, but as I said if I had it to do over I would have done it different.

 

[HntHrdr]

I mean Co just isn’t NM or AZ in terms of trophy quality, especially with the tags given away these days in most units and it seems like with more hunters and dedicated hunters our age class has taken a beating. If I was in your shoes I would go hunt 61, the rest of the state isn’t getting any better and you will die of old age before you catch Nw corner points, good buddy of mine is sitting at 23/24 points as a resident and is still years away from catching 201

 

[lostinOregon]

If all elk hunts turn to draw, which I expect nothing much will change there. An example is that 422,52,521,41,42,421 elk archery went to a draw last year instead of OTC. Everyone picked up their tag second choice and there were still a ton left over. That goes to the not understanding what is going to happen. Didn’t change the hunting pressure or point creep at all. CO still gets the money and looks like they did something for overcrowding.

Yes, folks will panick with the wolves but there were already more than 5 wolves in CO. It will take some time for them to have an effect.

Last point is mule deer point creep. It wasn’t exactly a banner season the last two years for some of the units that historically take a lot of points. People that are paying attention realize this and maybe not burning points, but who knows what they will do. Most will follow epic, HF and go hunts recommendations

 

[Togwotee]

I mean Co just isn’t NM or AZ in terms of trophy quality, especially with the tags given away these days in most units and it seems like with more hunters and dedicated hunters our age class has taken a beating. If I was in your shoes I would go hunt 61, the rest of the state isn’t getting any better and you will die of old age before you catch Nw corner points, good buddy of mine is sitting at 23/24 points as a resident and is still years away from catching 201

My thoughts exactly.

 

[oldmossback]

I respectfully disagree.

I believe ANY A-list (MALE Species) tag no matter when you draw it should take ALL your points.

Thats coming from a guy who hunts OTC and draw units.

The having your cake and eating it too has got to stop in Colorado.

what you are saying makes sense from points and conservation viewpoint... But it wont make sense to CPW because they look at things from a $$$$ viewpoint.
If you get ton of people like myself who just buy a point every year until I get points for the unit I want instead of just grabbing any OTC tag and going hunting.