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Founder

Founder Since 1999
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Deaths are at 448, cases at 35k+.
A number I’d like to know is how many need hospital care, cause that’s a number that will stress the healthcare system.
I think we’re going to have to live with the virus in our society for a while, and maybe forever.
But we can’t remain shutdown for too long before everything breaks.
The trend numbers I think are most important are hospitalized cases, deaths, available hospital bed numbers, available respirator numbers, available healthcare workers, etc.
I think as long as we can treat the people who will need to be treated, then we probably need to be working to get back to “normal”.
 
Founder said:
Very interesting. Seems like we’re screwed no matter what.
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Yep, the bomb is going to go off no matter what, all we're taking about is how long the fuse is and to what degree the hospitals can keep up.

Hong Kong is showing right now that even if you beat it initially, it'll be back the minute that people go outside and travel again. The second wave can be worse than the first.
 
It looks like death rate is in that 1-2% range, but anyone heard or seen a percentage of cases that result in hospitalization?
 
I don't even know a single person who knows a person who has tested positive. I do however know people who don't have a job anymore because of it. I'm not talking about people who were told to stay home and shelter in place. I am talking about jobs that are gone and businesses that are already talking about going out of business.
 
Health
Younger adults are large percentage of coronavirus hospitalizations in United States, according to new CDC data
White House officials warn millennials they are not immune



‘If I get corona, I get corona’: Some spring breakers aren’t worried about the coronavirus pandemic
0:00 / 1:26



Despite CDC warnings to practice social distancing, some spring breakers didn’t let covid-19 stop them from partying at the beach. (The Washington Post)
By
Ariana Eunjung Cha
March 19, 2020 at 5:55 a.m. PDT
PLEASE NOTE
The Washington Post is providing this story for free so that all readers have access to this important information about the coronavirus. For more free stories, sign up for our daily Coronavirus Updates newsletter.
The deadly coronavirus has been met with a bit of a shrug among some in the under-50 set in the United States. Even as public health officials repeatedly urged social distancing, the young and hip spilled out of bars on Bourbon Street in New Orleans. They gleefully hopped on flights, tweeting about the rock-bottom airfares. And they gathered in packs on beaches.
Their attitudes were based in part on early data from China, which suggested covid-19 might seriously sicken or kill the elderly — but spare the young.
Stark new data from the United States and Europe suggests otherwise.
A Centers for Disease Control and Prevention analysis of U.S. cases from Feb. 12 to March 16 released Wednesday shows 38 percent of those sick enough to be hospitalized were younger than 55.

Earlier this week, French health ministry official Jérome Salomon said half of the 300 to 400 coronavirus patients treated in intensive care units in Paris were younger than 65, and, according to numbers presented at a seminar of intensive care specialists, half the ICU patients in the Netherlands were younger than 50.
AD


President Trump and the coronavirus task force discussed on March 18 the administration’s ongoing efforts to deal with the growing health crisis. (Video: Mahlia Posey/Photo: Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)
At a White House news conference on Wednesday, Deborah Birx, the response coordinator of the nation’s coronavirus task force, warned about the concerning reports from France — and Italy, too — about “young people getting seriously ill and very seriously ill in the ICUs.”

She called out younger generations in particular, for not taking the virus seriously, and warned of “disproportional number of infections among that group.”
 
Tristate said:
I don't even know a single person who knows a person who has tested positive. I do however know people who don't have a job anymore because of it. I'm not talking about people who were told to stay home and shelter in place. I am talking about jobs that are gone and businesses that are already talking about going out of business.
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It's really too bad that businesses don't have enough in saving to weather at least a couple of weeks of no work. What if they'd had a fire, flood or something? A healthy company should be able to weather a month or so before shutting down. I feel bad for them and all, but one important thing in business and life is to save for a rainy day. Boats, big houses, vacations, etc. come after that savings is in place. You know what I mean?
 
Founder is right. Everyone should have a emergency fund. So far my business is staying open and everyone is working. I will only close if they make me. Governor Kate Brown may try to force close all non-essential business today. I think auto repair is essential but if no one is working they are only going to fix their car if they have to.
 
Most small businesses have been playing the finance game. Seemingly abundant cheap money out there. Even business schools teach people to grab it up. The business of finance has become so irresponsible it has made the venture capitalist industry huge.

I'm not telling you any of this is good. Im just telling you what is the bigger disaster coming.
 
And Bigfoot.
why we don't.jpg
 
Tristate said:
Most small businesses have been playing the finance game. Seemingly abundant cheap money out there. Even business schools teach people to grab it up. The business of finance has become so irresponsible it has made the venture capitalist industry huge.

I'm not telling you any of this is good. Im just telling you what is the bigger disaster coming.
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That's true, I'm just saying that if a business is on the verge of going out of business after just a few weeks, it probably wan't the most healthy company anyway. Same with individuals I suppose.
 
When I was just starting out in my working life my father in law told me the only money you make is the money you save.
 
The margins are not what they used to be. Most small businesses can survive an economic slow down, they can NOT survive a screeching halt shutdown which is exactly what is taking place now.
 
Homer said:
I think some of us would be surprised at how many of the companies and individuals that we all look at as so well off .......were always just one hiccup away from being totally BROKE.
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Agreed. I explain to my kids often that companies (and individuals) who appear to be rich, aren't necessarily rich, they only appear that way because they have new stuff, fancy buildings, etc. Many are barely making it and surviving on borrowed money. Clearly to have access to a large credit line often requires high value assets, but not always, as we saw in 2008 when everyone, job or no job, got credit. A large chunk of our country is leveraged to the max. If there's someone willing to loan them $5, they borrow it and buy crap they don't need.
 
Well, we can survive for a few weeks but with $40000 a month in expenses going out the door we can't hang in forever. So far we are still working and paying payroll and all the bills. Hoping it ends soon.
 
gleninaz said:
Well, we can survive for a few weeks but with $40000 a month in expenses going out the door we can't hang in forever. So far we are still working and paying payroll and all the bills. Hoping it ends soon.
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Good for you for paying payroll. I don't know what your business is, but I sure hope you get rolling soon.
 
Tristate said:
I don't even know a single person who knows a person who has tested positive. I do however know people who don't have a job anymore because of it. I'm not talking about people who were told to stay home and shelter in place. I am talking about jobs that are gone and businesses that are already talking about going out of business.
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Just tell em to go to work Tri.
 
Having a bunch of assets might not mean a damn thing in very hard times. Unless you can eat, barter or sell those assets, without labor and a viable market those assets just sit there and take up space while showing as having value. My whole life I heard what we kids called "the standard depression speech" from my dad and aunts and uncles. It usually began with "You didn't see how things were in the depression". Tales of runs on the banks, bank closures, people losing whatever money they had in those banks, having assets you couldnt turn into cash...
 
"Just tell em to go to work Tri."

I don't have to. These are good men. I would bet they are hustling right now to find their next job and staying busy.
 
Founder said:
Agreed. I explain to my kids often that companies (and individuals) who appear to be rich, aren't necessarily rich, they only appear that way because they have new stuff, fancy buildings, etc. Many are barely making it and surviving on borrowed money. Clearly to have access to a large credit line often requires high value assets, but not always, as we saw in 2008 when everyone, job or no job, got credit. A large chunk of our country is leveraged to the max. If there's someone willing to loan them $5, they borrow it and buy crap they don't need.
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I think that is true and that once we are in recovery, some folks will learn a valuable lesson.
 
feddoc said:
I think that is true and that once we are in recovery, some folks will learn a valuable lesson.
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It'll still be just "some" folks who learn the lesson. The living beyond means and living on credit will likely continue. I just hope my kids understand the whole saving thing. They should, I blab it all the time.

BTW, up to 41K cases and 455 deaths since starting this thread this morning.
 
Founder,

The March 23rd numbers from government show the hospitalization rate is 7.3%. Death rate in US is only 1.1%. Death rate is almost 10X lower than Italy. I think these numbers are a false high because few of the people with mild symptoms or no symptoms are being tested.

U.S. COVID Risk & Vaccine Tracker

Covid Act Now has real-time tracking of your community's COVID risk level. Explore how your community is doing.
www.covidactnow.org www.covidactnow.org

The scariest thing about this virus is how people are panicking. Even worse are people that are trying to make a big profit off other peoples anxiety in a time like this. In emergency and high stress situations just focus on those things you can control and produce results.

I provide anesthesia for a living and have accepted that I am very high risk for contracting this virus. I'm not concerned about my own health but I'm worried that when I do get this virus I could spread it to other people. If you have health conditions that make you more vulnerable to serious complications from this virus, you really should take this seriously and do what you can to minimize your risk of becoming infected. If you don't have any serious health issues, you should still take this virus seriously so you don't spread it to someone that it could kill.
 
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I said it at the start. They should have told us older people we had a choice to either self quarantine or to go about our business and risk getting the virus. We could have saved the economy for our grandkids future. You want to go out granny then if you die don't whine about it. Why quarantine an entire nation when they knew we would all get it eventually? No ventilators, tough shat. Doctor says you gonna die old man.
 
It all depends on the debt load. No or very little debt, you can stay open pretty much forever. Business or personal, it's the same.
 
At the rate things are going, USA will be in excess of 100k by or before the end of the day Friday. I suspect will reach 1M, within the following week. The world has not seen anything like this in my lifetime (age 61).

This is as serious as it gets. We do not have the medical resources to handle growth of a life threatening disease which requires significant medical care at this rate. The stay at home measures are necessary to try and slow the growth.

At least this is how I see it.
 
Here is one guys model/projections for diagnoses with the actual data points plotted as well, which have been amazingly accurate so far. I hope he's right the rest of the way too!

20200323_215447.jpg
20200323_215404.jpg
20200323_215135.jpg
 
And just think of the 100s of thousands that have or have already had it and not been tested and have recovered and recovering at home without seeing a doctor.

Not a lot on that angle by the media as of yet. Fear sells, I guess.
 
I don’t think there are huge numbers who had it before it was discovered in Washington. Hospitalization and death go along with the virus, so had it been in the US prior to when it was caught it Washington, I think it would have been noticed before that.
I agree there might be 50k or so other people out there who have it and not been tested, but I don’t think hundreds of thousands.

I agree that we could be seeing 100k cases and 1,000+ deaths by Sunday.
 
One of the Local Doctor's here Thinks it's been here for a few months!

He's Been Treating people with the same Symptoms for a few months with very little success with anybody getting better with prescribed Antibiotics!

Makes you Wonder?






Founder said:
I don’t think there are huge numbers who had it before it was discovered in Washington. Hospitalization and death go along with the virus, so had it been in the US prior to when it was caught it Washington, I think it would have been noticed before that.
I agree there might be 50k or so other people out there who have it and not been tested, but I don’t think hundreds of thousands.

I agree that we could be seeing 100k cases and 1,000+ deaths by Sunday.
Click to expand...
 
We've only had 3 cases here in Humboldt Co. CA and all 3 are recovering well. They were all international travelers. We're a college town and two bus loads of college kids just arrived from spring break from SF and LA so our numbers are expected to go up.

Why are educated people so ignorant?
 
Co worker and his kid had every symptom including pneumonia and hospital stay for the kid the first half of February.
 
Some people I know came back from a vacation in February, got ill and the husband gave it to a co-worker. The co-workers wife, who had an autoimmune disease, got it from her husband and sadly passed away. I've wondered if that was Utah first CV death?
 
You know it’s got to be a serious problem when the University of California Davis says stop going to the hospital you have .002 chance of major complications, I’m starting to think Founder is bumping his own numbers :rolleyes: guess everyone’s got pay their bills ??‍♂️
 
I can almost hear it now: "If you took the drug Chloroquine during the COVID-19 outbreak of 2020 call the office of Wesue & Uwin. You may be entitled to a cash settlement."
 

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