Bonus pass question

[buckhorn]

If there is a 75 tag quota for a hunt could someone please break it down to the number of resident tags that will go in the bonus pass under the new regs. And how are the remaining tags allocated? Thanks in advance

 

[bonecollector777]

There's no guarantee to a certain number of tags going to residents in the bonus pass. It's at least 15% but could go up to 20%. And nr is only up to 5% but could be 0% depending on how the draw goes. So in your case the highest number that could go in the bonus pass round to residents is 15. Lowest would be 11 or so. Once the bonus pass is done if 15 went to residents then the 60 tags in the random pass could go to anyone but as soon as 7-8 nr were drawn all the rest of the tags would need to go to residents. If the nr got their 3-4 tags in the bonus pass then 3-4 tags would be available to nr in the random pass but as soon as they drew the rest would have to go to residents. Hope that makes sense haha

 

[DonMartin]

Here is my take on this year's deer draw on the Arizona Strip.

This year, assuming there are 75 tags that are going to be authorized for Unit 13B here is what I think will happen.

Under the 20% bonus point pool pass rule, that means that those sportsmen, resident or non-resident alike are in the draw for tags number 1-15 (20% x 75 =15.

However, state law dictates that non-residents are limited to a maximum of 10% of the tags in any unit, therefore only 7.5, or 7, because the number is rounded DOWN,can be issued to them.

BUT THIS YEAR, the 5%-5% rule came into play. That rule says that only 5% of the tags (3.5 tags rounded DOWN to 3) can be issued to non-residents in the bonus point pass draw, while the other up to 5% (4 tags) CAN be distributed in the second or general draw.

So here is how the current bonus point pools are, according to the AZGFD.

There are 136 non-residents with 19 bonus points, and 4 AZ resident with 19 points.

Those with 18 bonus points include just 10 Arizona residents.

Arizona residents whose number is 32 have 17 bonus points.

So I have some hypothesis about how the tags will be distributed this year.

Because of the 5% limitation on the bonus point pass, non residents with max points, and I think there are 136 in that pool-will get 3 tags while Arizona residents will get 12 tags in the max bonus point draw.

However, I feel that those 4 Arizona residents with the max, or 19 bonus points, may or may not apply for a tag this year.

Therefore computer will drop down into the 18 bonus point pool for residents, and once again, there MIGHT be some of those guys who apply only for a bonus point this year, and NOT a tag!

So I think that SOME of the 32 Arizona residents who have 17 bonus points will be drawn to fill out those 12 mandated tags.

WHEW!

Of course there will be 4 tags available to any non-resident who applies for a tag in the second draw.

Course they will be competing with the THOUSANDS of Arizona residents who are also applying for a 13B tag.

Guess we'll just have to wait and see IF non-residents end up with the maximum number of tags they can draw by state law on the Strip; 7.

Hope this answers the question of how I think the tags will be distributed this year.

By the way, I have 17 points, so come heck or high water, I WILL DRAW A STRIP TAG by the time I am 69 years old! LOL

I'd normally say GOOD LUCK to everyone out there, but since you are competing against me for the remaining 60 tags, all I can say, is I've paid my dues with a decade and a half of applications (Plus Loyalty and Hunter Education bonus points) so I need to draw a tag! LOL

However--good luck--I can see the rainbow at the end of the tunnel, I just have to remain patient...and live another 3 years!

Don Martin
Arizona Wildlife Outfitters

 

[buckhorn]

Don that was a very good explanation thank you and good luck in the draw

 

[BigBuckKiller]

I have a question.... if you have max points then you are in the bonus pass round of the drawing..my question is if you are one of the unlucky ones that does not get a tag in the bonus pass are you then put back in the draw for the remaining tags? Or is the draw over for you? I also have 17 points for deer.

 

[WapitiBob]

Everybody is in the Bonus pass except those with zero points. Everybody except the 20% that drew in the bonus pass are in the 1-2 pass.

 

[DonMartin]

Agree with Bob.

Those non-resident guys with max bonus points, who didn't draw are going into the second draw along with everyone else.

They have the CHANCE to draw one of the FOUR remaining tags that CAN be drawn by non-residents in the second pass.

So in effect by being in the max bonus point pool, those 136 non-resident sportsmen will get TWO chances to draw a tag!

Don't forget though, non-residents are not GUARANTEED that they will get 4 remaining Strip deer tags in that second draw. Rule doesn't say that. It says "Up to 10% of the total tags..."

Just have to wait and see how it works out.

Only thing "guaranteed" is that 3 out of the 136 non-residents who are in the max bonus point pool for deer this year WILL get 3 tags on the 20% bonus point pass.

 

[BigBuckKiller]

I always thought that was the way it worked. The reason I was asking is because I work with a guy who is a resident. Back when kaibab went to a draw for archery he enough points to put him in the max Point Pool. He did not get drawn. When the leftover list came out there was still tags leftover. He called down and talked to Game and Fish and he was told that the reason he did not get drawn was because he was in the max Point Pool but the 10% of tags for residents were gone before they could issue him a tag.

 

[buckhorn]

That doesn't seem right may be a good question for Don Martin to answer

 

[ElmerFudd]

I am one of the 136 nonresidents with 19 now competing for 3 instead of 7 tags per year. I was looking at a tag for sure by age 73, maybe 80 if you count some of the 18 without the hunter education point moving up. Maybe younger as other applicants start dying of old age. Now I'm pushing age 100 for certain draw if they don't change the system again. I think I'm younger than the average 19 pointer at 53 today... So perhaps outliving many of the others will drop it back to 80 or less. I'm just questioning if it's still worth it to hang 13B or bust... Or put a second choice where I won't be using a walker if/when I draw....

 

[ElmerFudd]

One question about the second pass. Do they resort and issue new random numbers between passes? If not, then a random number not good enough in the max point pool certainly will not get it done in the larger pool! With no reshuffling and issue of new random numbers, there is no chance of getting a tag in the larger pool in the bonus point round.

 

[WapitiBob]

I was told by a dept employee that back in the "old days", if your point group was in the Bonus Pass, you were excluded from the 1-2 pass. As such, people with one less point than was the max for a given hunt, had better odds in the 1-2 pass than a guy did in the Bonus pass, depending on number of applicants in those two passes. You weren't in both draws as you are now.

The dept issues new numbers for the 1-2 pass.

 

[buckhorn]

Thanks Wapiti Bob
We are slowly beginning to understand how this draw system is done. Your knowledge is much appreciated.

 

[ruthunter]

Stats are stats but last year my brother, my buddy, and myself all drew 13b archery together with an 8pt BP average. When Cc were hit everyone said we drew are 2nd choice 13a and everyone said it was impossible for us all to draw 13b. Well we drew 13b. My point is you can't win if you don't play. We also met (4) people on the hunt who camped closed to us and they all said they drew on the same app.

 

[buckhorn]

Yes it does happen I know a husband-and-wife that Drew has a party of two with four points resident

 

[YBO]

I'm trying to wrap my head around this 13b scenario. Is this correct if 7 rifle tags go to NR? 3 max point holders will definately get drawn and there is a chance that no other NR will get drawn? If true, I thoughtthe change was two fold, one to make it more fair (I hate that PC word) to those with less than max points and secondly increase hunter participation in the draw$$$. If no non residents procure a tag with than less than max points...AZGF can kiss $ down the toilet. I'm I misunderstanding this? Thanks

 

[buckhorn]

LAST EDITED ON Apr-29-16 AT 02:02PM (MST)[p] The way I am beginning to understand it is that yes three nonresidents will likely draw in the bonus pass because the nonresidents with Max points far outnumber the residence with Max points then the four remaining tags will go into the second pass and will be available to resident or nonresident Thelowest random numbers the computer generates for each applicant Will determine who draws the tagsl

 

[buckhorn]

It seems there is still some confusion about the four tags that don't get drawn by nonresidents in the bonus pass. Will they be available to residents in the bonus pass those 10 residents with 18 points or will they automatically go into the second pass . In Don's explanation he said he thought there would be 12 tags available to residents in the bonus pass is that including the four of the seven that the nonresidents would have available?

 

[WapitiBob]

LAST EDITED ON Apr-29-16 AT 03:15PM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Apr-29-16 AT 03:04?PM (MST)

The Bonus Pass is a MINIMUM of 15% for residents and a MAXIMUM of 5% for non residents; 20% of the total hunt code quota.

The 1-2 Pass is a MAXIMUM of 10% for non residents (of total hunt code quota).

There is no minimum for non residents, only a maximum.

If the 5% nr cap is filled in the Bonus Pass, the 1-2 Pass will have the other 5% available.
If the 5% is not filled, any remainder will be available in the 1-2 Pass; up to the full 10% max nr cap.

 

[ElmerFudd]

It is pretty much assured that all the 10% nonresident cap will be filled no matter how they divide them between the bonus and 1-2 pass. The percentage of nonresidents applying far exceeds 10% and the average nonresident applying has more points.

 

[YBO]

Hmmm. I respect your opinion EF, but there is hardly a decent chance that NRs will get all 7 tags. JMO. Hope you are right. Thanks

 

[buckhorn]

Another factor that may play a part in all of this is unit 13a. Or the 12 East and west hunts. Or archery in 13 a and 13 B .Will some of the top point holders apply for those Hunts?

 

[sagebrush]

Non-residents were never guaranteed to draw 10% of the tags in the Bonus Pass, but usually did. Now, non-residents usually draw 10% of the tags but they are split between the Bonus Pass and the 1-2 Pass, as witnessed in the elk and antelope draw this year. I doubt the results will be much different in the deer draw.

"You can fly a helicopter to the top of Everest and say you've been there. The problem with that is you were an a$$hole when you started and you're still an a$$hole when you get back.
Its the climb that makes you a different person". - Yvon Chouinard

 

[ElmerFudd]

LAST EDITED ON Apr-30-16 AT 02:58AM (MST)[p]Yes. The strip and late bab tags used to always fill the nonresident cap before points, before they had a first pass to max points and when the first pass was 10%, not 20%. I can't find the resident/nonresident breakdown in the 2015 statistics posted online. But it used to be that about half the applicants for the strip and late Kaibab buck tags were nonresident.

In the years between upping the first pass from 10% to 20%, you needed over 50% of the top pool applicants to probably fill the 10% nonresident pool in that pass. Strip and late Kaibab hunts always well exceeded that, nonresidents approaching 90% of the max points applicants now. Years of the 10% cap assure that nonresident percentage in the higher pools will grow each passing year.

The only reason sheep and antelope top pools are mostly resident is that they started the points system for them before all the hunter services and application rage. Not many nonresidents got in on the first few years of points.

Nonresidents will continue to get the full 10% cap of strip and late Kaibab tags. In the second pass, if there are 70 tags to start, nonresidents will be competing for 4 of 56 tags. That's like 7%. Surely the nonresident weighting will be many times 7%!

 

[YBO]

Yes, that makes sense. Thanks

 

[cmbbulldog]

>Hmmm. I respect your opinion EF,
>but there is hardly a
>decent chance that NRs will
>get all 7 tags. JMO.
>Hope you are right. Thanks
>


Wanna bet? ?

 

[msolocam]

Pm sent Elmer

 

[msolocam]

Pm sent Elmer

 

[DonMartin]

Elmer here are my thoughts.

Yes, the way the draw is now its probably going to take many, many years to get a Strip tag.

I've advised some of my hunters, especially those 60+ years old, to take a look at the late Kaibab, 12A West hunts.

No, they are NOT bucks like those taken on the STRIP, but for those who are patient and will stay the entire 10 days of the hunt and let us look over a lot of bucks, the opportunity to take a good buck is always there.

Again for those guys who can wait it out another decade, ok, play the game. If you're older though, time think about options.

And the Late Kaibab hunt is a good option, I'd say.

Don Martin
Arizona Wildlife Outfitters