RM,
Regarding your specific comments, thanks for your response...let me elaborate:
1. I consider the "G" hunts (Anderson Flat, Goodale, Round valley, etc.) more of a premium hunt than most "X" zones...like the popular X-12, X-9A, X-5's, X-7's...etc. My main criteria for saying this is that they (most "G" hunts) take place usually during a time of heavy migration or a time when rut activity is high. These conditions certainly increase the hunter's odds of taking a trophy buck. Also, remember, some X zones are not that great...Check out the success ratio in X-9C and X-10 if you want proof.
2. Last time I checked, we havent discovered the fountain of youth...yet. We all will die someday! Or, at least get so old and decrepid that we wont be able to climb all the mountains we want too. Most of us will give up putting in for Goodale or Round Valley and take a "lesser" hunt long before we get to the point that we cant get out at all. Remember, part of our "applicant-population" is over 40, 50, and even 60+. Most of these individuals simply dont have enough years in them to count on ever getting to the point where they are GUARANTEED a Goodale, Round Valley, or even Anderson Flat tag....That is if you go strictly on the odds (over 60:1 for Goodale, I believe)
3. I think if you are patient...you will see people cash in for a lesser hunt. see #2 above. If it hasn't happend yet IT WILL. When some people hear or see others killing good bucks in "lesser" zones, eventually some will give into temptation and cash in their points for a guaranteed hunt. It's easy to say, "I'm holding out!" but, in reality, most wont. For instance, some applicants are not regulars in the "out-of-state" game. These hunters depend on getting a tag in their home state to satisfy their hunger for a hunt. I'm betting that there are some of these individuals in the population of applicant currently holding max points and putting in for Goodale. After 7+ years of not pulling the trigger on a buck I would go CRAZY. Let's see how many have this affliction in the coming years....
4. I think with max points you are now guaranteed a tag for zones like X-12, X-8...and probably for some of the X-9 hunts. Check the odds for last year in the DFG's publication "Tracks".
5. I agree, lady luck plays a huge roll! But, by really disecting what the application trends are for certain hunt zones one can tip the odds for the better. Especially for antelope and elk hunts in CA...anyone else notice how the better draw odds flip back and forth between early and late hunts every other year? Maybe the same thing is happening between some of the "premium" California deer zones as well. Oops...maybe I just spilled a little secret.
Again, RM thanks for response...it's a fun topic for me to think about and discuss!
Good luck everyone in this year's drawings!