CO confusion

SierraFool · Mar 22, 2008

Its down to the wire and need to place apps. in CO.
I want to hunt 21 archery and have 2 NR points.
MM has a breakdown of only 17% drawing with 2 points.
HuntinFool minimum point query says 100% with 2 points and another site says the same. This is DM-021-01-A
What do you guys think? Any comments welcome.

Feleno · Mar 22, 2008

The only accurate stats seems to be on the CDOW website. Do the numbers there and you'll get the answer.

SierraFool · Mar 22, 2008

Ok, CDOW and Huntin Fool minimum queries are right. Why is MM and other sites saying 17%

IdahoBugler · Mar 23, 2008

MM is actually correct. You need to look at the number of tags given to non-residents = 29. 21 people with 3 or more points drew the tags. There were 8 tags left for the 46 people that put in with 2 points. That makes the odds 8/46 = 17%. So if those same 39 people put in again but now have 3 points there will be no way of drawing that tag with 2 points. The point creep has been tough to follow. I've been chasing the odds for a while and always seem to be behind every year. This info can be found by looking at the Drawings summary and hunt recap summary.

Good luck in drawing the tag this year.

IB