DRAFT SHEEP & MTN GOAT REGS/QUOTAS

Horniac · Mar 30, 2023

Draft regulations dated 3/16/23 with proposed tag numbers reflecting the new 90/10 split.

https://wgfd.wyo.gov/WGFD/media/content/PDF/Get%20Involved/2023%20April%20Regulations/CH-9-Draft-03-16-2023-4.pdf

Looks like 1 NR random ram tag will be issued in unit 5 under the current 75/25
preference/random tag allocation unless that is getting changed at some point prior to the upcoming 4/17/23 draw deadline…

Also, if I have followed the various posts correctly, the various NR tag increases (i.e. sheep tag from $2,320 to $3,000) that was signed into law won’t go into effect until next year. Likewise, no change has been approved yet converting preference points to bonus points in the future. Do I have that correct?

Thanks,

Horniac

BuzzH · Mar 30, 2023

Yes...

littlebighorn · Mar 31, 2023

So 1 NR random sheep tag for the entire state?
The odds of drawing that tag will be special!

jm77 · Mar 31, 2023

littlebighorn said:
So 1 NR random sheep tag for the entire state?
The odds of drawing that tag will be special!

Honestly, those odds may very well be as good or better than any other western state offering bighorn sheep tags to a nonresident.

MQQSE · Mar 31, 2023

Just like New Mexico odds. Simply not worth it for almost everyone to apply as a NR.

dwalton · Mar 31, 2023

littlebighorn said:
So 1 NR random sheep tag for the entire state?
The odds of drawing that tag will be special!

LBH,
It will be similar to the NR odds for Utah sheep. (Just razzing you a bit, friend!)

Horniac · Mar 31, 2023

jm77 said:
Honestly, those odds may very well be as good or better than any other western state offering bighorn sheep tags to a nonresident.

Using last years draw report and assuming the same applicants this year the odds for the 1 random tag this year should be approximately 1:3196…

Horniac

BuzzH · Mar 31, 2023

Horniac said:
Using last years draw report and assuming the same applicants this year the odds for the 1 random tag this year should be approximately 1:3196…

Horniac

You can apply in Montana where NRs aren't guaranteed a single tag.

Horniac · Mar 31, 2023

BuzzH said:
You can apply in Montana where NRs aren't guaranteed a single tag.

I do but unfortunately haven‘t drawn a tag there yet and probably never will even with max points.

Taking a quick look at their draw summary report and subtracting out the ewe and unlimited ram tags, it looks like MT issued 11 NR LE ram tags in 2022 with approximately 7,335 NR LE ram tag applicants for rough odds of 1:667 without respect to bonus points…

https://myfwp.mt.gov/getRepositoryFile?objectID=106455

Horniac

West River · Mar 31, 2023

Horniac said:
Draft regulations dated 3/16/23 with proposed tag numbers reflecting the new 90/10 split.

https://wgfd.wyo.gov/WGFD/media/content/PDF/Get%20Involved/2023%20April%20Regulations/CH-9-Draft-03-16-2023-4.pdf

Looks like 1 NR random ram tag will be issued in unit 5 under the current 75/25
preference/random tag allocation unless that is getting changed at some point prior to the upcoming 4/17/23 draw deadline…

Also, if I have followed the various posts correctly, the various NR tag increases (i.e. sheep tag from $2,320 to $3,000) that was signed into law won’t go into effect until next year. Likewise, no change has been approved yet converting preference points to bonus points in the future. Do I have that correct?

Thanks,

Horniac

I wonder at what point they are going to remove the super tag and the super tag trifecta from the nonresident quota. The statute that created the super tag and super tag trifecta drawings says that if drawn by nonresidents the sheep tags come from the nonresident quota.

BuzzH · Mar 31, 2023

Horniac said:
I do but unfortunately haven‘t drawn a tag there yet and probably never will even with max points.

Taking a quick look at their draw summary report and subtracting out the ewe and unlimited ram tags, it looks like MT issued 11 NR LE ram tags in 2022 with approximately 7,335 NR LE ram tag applicants for rough odds of 1:667 without respect to bonus points…

https://myfwp.mt.gov/getRepositoryFile?objectID=106455

Horniac

You can't calculate draw odds when you aren't assured a tag, fact. You're competing with residents too, so your odds are much worse.

I have max points there too and they mean doodly-squat.

West River · Mar 31, 2023

This is the way it reads.

littlebighorn · Mar 31, 2023

?️ ?️??

Horniac · Mar 31, 2023

BuzzH said:
You can't calculate draw odds when you aren't assured a tag, fact. You're competing with residents too, so your odds are much worse.

I have max points there too and they mean doodly-squat.

Agree with you but I am talking rough odds based on historical data as stated previously not absolute.

Most, if not all services provide draw odds for these hunts with the aforementioned caveats;

BuzzH · Mar 31, 2023

Horniac said:
Agree with you but I am talking rough odds based on historical data as stated previously not absolute.

Most, if not all services provide draw odds for these hunts with the aforementioned caveats;

View attachment 106991

I know how the draw works.

They put out a list where they MAY issue tags in specific units and where you can apply as a NR.

NR's are limited to "up to 10%" of the REGION quota, not area quota.

You're in the hat with every applicant, including residents and once the region cap is hit (including ewe permits) by NR applicants, you're application is dead if you applied for a unit in the region.

Those application services and draw odds services are full of chit...there is no NR quota of tags. If say in region 4, 10% of the total region quota is 2 tags, a unit you apply for may not even issue a single tag in 482 for a couple reasons:

1. two NR tags were issued in another region 4 area before a NR was drawn in 482(think the RMF units).

2. Residents were all picked before a NR

Point being your odds in Montana can't be calculated by simply saying there were 11 NR rams tags issued and 7300 NR's applied...and as such, odds are much worse than 11/7300.