Draw Odds Question

[Zim]

I'm contemplating going in with a guy who also has 9 points to go for a certain deer unit we have ~50% chance for. He wants to apply for a 2nd choice of unit 43 muzzleloader. He says our odds would be 50/50 as a 2nd choice. But it seems HT & GoHunt indicate there were leftovers last year, which I guess go on sale OTC July 1st? If so, I don't want to apply as a party, because if I want that 2nd choice I could buy it July 1st after all my other draw results from other states are posted. Can someone with experience in CO tell if there indeed have been leftovers in recent years for that 43 mzl tag? Thanks.


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Greenhorns educate yourselves. Wherever SFW goes, scandals and corruption follow. Write your legislators:

http://kutv.com/news/local/allegations-of-corruption-surround-utah-hungtin-and-conservation-expo

https://www.cascwild.org/don-peay-the-man-who-would-be-king-baron/

http://www.fieldandstream.com/blogs...ares-north-american-hunting-model-“socialism”

http://www.standard.net/Recreation/...16-Western-Hunting-and-Conservation-Expo.html

http://www.mtbullypulpit.org/2012/06/pox-on-fox.html

http://www.thewildlifenews.com/2013...on-essentially-buy-utah-division-of-wildlife/

http://westernvaluesproject.org/tax...hunting-energy-industry-over-hunters-anglers/

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/02/u...-but-hunters-cry-foul.html?smid=pl-share&_r=2

http://www.themudflats.net/archives/25891

 

[hoopscoach]

LAST EDITED ON Mar-28-16 AT 06:56PM (MST)[p]Hi Zim,
Indeed you have a 43% chance to draw a muzzy buck tag in unit 43 based on last years draw stats. It's definitely somewhat higher than 43% because the draw stats only tell you how many people put 43 muzzy as their second choice. It doesn't subtract out all of of the people who actually drew their first choice and were never in the running when the 2nd choice draw came around. There weren't any after the 2nd choice round, though, so no chance for a leftover tag. Of course, they could change the number of tags given out in 2016 which will mess up these stats but there's no way to know until the tag numbers come out after the draw. I hope that helps!

Hoopscoach


"Rather fail with honor than succeed by fraud"

 

[DW]

Hoops is right. 30 of 65 non res who listed it as a second choice drew the tag 46% success. No leftovers after April draw.

 

[Zim]

If I listed it as a 2nd choice and drew, would I still gain a preference point?

 

[HiMtnHntr]

Yes.