When you look at the draw odds and see a unit that was fairly easy to draw the previous year the next year the odds will be redicuals,that's one thing I've noticed is people study that stuff and the numbers chainge a lot year to year.
5 years ago I put my girlfriend in for lone pine muzzy cow because only a handful of people put in the year before and the high point holder was 4 points.So she did draw the year I put her in but some how she got lucky and got a random tag because that year two max point holders put in and took 2 of the three tags and she got the random which 125 people had applied for she had 4 points.