Help Me Understand?

cantkillathing · Mar 24, 2021

Ok I have put together all the numbers from the DWR for a unit I am familiar with here are the numbers

Year	population Estimates	fawns/100	Adult Doe %	Buck Harvest	Antlerless Harvest	Buck/doe	Permit #
2014	11400	38	0.86	904	48	20/100	2500
2015	11900	45	0.84	984	60	24/100	2500
2016	12700	48	0.8	1129	61	23.4/100	2650
2017	12900	28	0.75	1103	58	22.4/100	2750
2018	11700	0	0.73	866		17.8/100	2750
2019	9400	32	0.76	703		14/100	2750
2020	11000	?	?			20/100

Ok if you look at these numbers, can anyone tell me how in 2016-2017 with a high fawn and high Doe survival that the population only goes up 200 head, then in 2019-2020 the fawn and doe are lower significantly that the population jumps 1600 head and buck population jumps way up?
The only reason why I see this happening is they need to justify to move tags from another unit and ask for 250 tag increase on this unit.
Can anyone explain otherwise? Please do and enlighten me.

Tristate · Mar 24, 2021

YBO · Mar 24, 2021

Would you expect anything less from the Gov't? I hear you loud and clear.

elkassassin · Mar 24, 2021

So?

There Was 2750 Permits on that Unit?

We Talkin an LE Unit?

Or General?

cantkillathing · Mar 24, 2021

elkassassin said:
So?

There Was 2750 Permits on that Unit?

We Talkin an LE Unit?

Or General?

General, no LE unit has that many tags, atleast I don’t think.

elkassassin · Mar 24, 2021

What I Figured!

Thinking that 11K Deer Count might be a little high!

llamapacker · Mar 24, 2021

If you think there is that much precision in these numbers, I'm not sure where to start.

Not every herd unit is even surveyed each year. Typically this is every 2-3 years. The out years are based on computer models - what could possibly go wrong there?

It isn't even possible to get the same count in the same year, as weather and the whims of nature make helicopter surveys imprecise at best. They NEVER count every deer in a unit - it isn't possible.
The best you get from this data is trends, and over time a reasonably accurate picture of the herd. Those that think you can micromanage the hunt numbers based on this data are misguided.

Notice how slowly the tag numbers changed, and the impact of these changes is hard to discern.

Bill

Hawkeye · Mar 24, 2021

The DWR couldn’t count fish in a fishbowl. These are just estimates based upon flawed, crappy models. It’s time to revisit their modeling and implement mandatory harvest reporting.

mtnrunner260 · Mar 25, 2021

I think you're giving them to much credit about stringing two thoughts together.

Elkhunter96 · Mar 25, 2021

As others have said, simply and estimate(guess)

cantkillathing · Mar 25, 2021

I got the missed data for the 2020 fawns were at a high and doe survival was high and that is why herd increased. I missed understood the increase tag numbers it is 150 tag increase not the 250 I claim. This softens the blow some, but still don’t like it.

bowhunt · Apr 2, 2021

The larger question: Why the hell would you ever shoot a Doe in Utah?
We need every damn one of them. The DWR published a study recently that shows 16 bucks per 100 Does had the same breed rate at 25 bucks per 100 Does...meaning more bucks do not equate to more deer...More Does equates to more deer.

middlefork · Apr 2, 2021

Predation. Not saying it is right.

Desertmuleyguide · Apr 2, 2021

bowhunt said:
The larger question: Why the hell would you ever shoot a Doe in Utah?
We need every damn one of them. The DWR published a study recently that shows 16 bucks per 100 Does had the same breed rate at 25 bucks per 100 Does...meaning more bucks do not equate to more deer...More Does equates to more deer.

It took a study to figure out that 100 does would always have the same amount of fawns? Wow... thats science and sh!t.

Sorry that's just funny to me... lol

Desertmuleyguide · Apr 2, 2021

According to The Mule Deer Working Groups literature, the only reason to have a doe hunt is if the herd is over range carrying capacity. Which simply means there are deer starving. Utah is a part of the Mule Deer Working Group as is every other western state, Mexico and Canada. The study also shows that 5-10 bucks are enough to breed 100 does. A 5-10:100 buck:doe ratio would make for a very crappy hunt BUT... its enough to maintain a deer herd.