Hunt expo odds for Deer and Elk

dryflyelk

dryflyelk

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LAST EDITED ON Feb-10-14 AT 04:47PM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Feb-10-14 AT 03:48?PM (MST)

I've wanted to figure it out for a while now and I finally got around to it. I'm glad we can finally get the numbers!

If you put in for ALL of the deer tags at the expo, your odds of drawing 1 tag are right at 1% at a cost of $70.

If you put in for ALL of the elk tags at the expo, your odds of drawing 1 tag are at 2.34% at a cost of $155.

This comes from last year's numbers, so it will be a bit different this year. I haven't done the other species yet.

Of course, if you only put in for a few of the tags, your chances will go down significantly. This is best case scenario.

Vi Et Armis Invictus Maneo
 
>I've wanted to figure it out
>for a while now and
>I finally got around to
>it. I'm glad we can
>finally get the numbers!
>
>If you put in for all
>of the deer tags at
>the expo, your odds of
>drawing 1 tag are right
>at 1% at a cost
>of $70.
>
>If you put in for all
>of the elk tags at
>the expo, your odds of
>drawing 1 tag are at
>2.38% at a cost of
>$155.
>
>This comes from last year's numbers,
>so it will be a
>bit different this year. I
>haven't done the other species
>yet.
>
>Vi Et Armis Invictus Maneo

JUDAS PRIEST!!!

You could have waited till after the EXPO to Post this!

Or Posted it Before I Blowed a couple Hundred!














[font color="red"]From My Smokin Cherry Red Hot Barrel & My Dead Cold Hands I Shall go down Fighting for American Pride & Rights!
I Know I'm Out Numbered by Pusssies & Brainwashed Democrats that'll Throw Their Hands in the air & I know I can't Lick the U.S. Military by Myself when they Turn on us but I'll make
you one Guarantee,They'll be Enduring a Situation where I Hope to Hell All Americans become True Americans once again & Stand up for their Rights!
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-10-14 AT 04:47PM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Feb-10-14 AT 03:46?PM (MST)

A little more fun.

If you took the same amount you would spend on possible elk tags at the expo ($155) and put it all on 1 number on a roulette table in vegas, your odds of winning would be 2.63% (up from the 2.34% odds at the expo). If that number hit, paying 35-1, you'd win $5,425.

If you put your $70 of deer tag money on the roulette table, and your number hit, you'd get a payout of $2450. Odds would be improved by almost 3x's, as well.

If you could find a bet that has the same odds as you drawing your deer tag, or at about 100-1, your payout on your $70 if you hit would be right at $7000 (take out the casino's cut and such and you're probably left with $6800).


Vi Et Armis Invictus Maneo
 
Here's my solution.

Bring your $70 to my booth, buy some stuff, be happy. At the end of the day, you won't win a hunt, but at least you'll look cool in a new hoodie and hat combo.

Might even get you some action from the wife later on when you give her a Raw Dog shirt for her too!
 
Since I'm not great with numbers, what are my odds if I only put in for 2 deer hunts and I draw one?

At $10 two years ago getting to hunt the Pauns rifle with zero deer points...I call that a GREAT investment! But these guys above are right, nobody is going to draw the tags, especially the OIL species. So don't put in for them. Nobody should put in for them...it's a total waste of money!
 
S.F.W. taking all the idiots with no lube!

If you see don he will have a grin like no there cause you just paid for him and 15 of his buddies to go sheep hunting.




hornkiller.jpg
 
>Since I'm not great with numbers,
>what are my odds if
>I only put in for
>2 deer hunts and I
>draw one?
>
>At $10 two years ago getting
>to hunt the Pauns rifle
>with zero deer points...I call
>that a GREAT investment!
>But these guys above are
>right, nobody is going to
>draw the tags, especially the
>OIL species. So don't
>put in for them.
>Nobody should put in for
>them...it's a total waste of
>money!


Well, let's just say your odds of drawing a pauns rifle tag when you only put $10 in were about the same as Bobcat's odds of landing a date with a supermodel. Without knowing the other tag you put in for, your odds were probably about 1 in 2000.

I've known quite a few guys that have drawn. Unfortunately, I've never been one of them.

Vi Et Armis Invictus Maneo
 
Thanks !!! Henry Mountain deer tag 1 in 8722 . Yes ....Then I guess your telling me I have a chance ! The real Utah draw has better odds.
 
dryflyelk said: "Well, let's just say your odds of drawing a pauns rifle tag when you only put $10 in were about the same as Bobcat's odds of landing a date with a supermodel."

Okay Mr. Statistician, please tell us what the exact odds would be of Bobcat actually landing a date with supermodel. That would be a real test of your math skills!

Hawkeye

Browning A-Bolt 300 Win Mag
Bowtech Destroyer
Winchester Apex .50 Cal
 
Roughly the equivalent of Mr. Don Peay standing up at the banquet this weekend, announcing he was wrong all along, giving the tags back to the state, appointing Fish On as the new director of SFW, conceding that he's spent tens of thousands of dollars of our money that we'll never be able to track, and breaking down into a crying, sobbing mess that would make even Jimmer Swaggart blush, all while begging our forgiveness.

Vi Et Armis Invictus Maneo
 
I'm still hung up on Smitty's offer. I assume he's offering up HIS wife for a T-shirt. :)

If BESS and I both buy her T-shirts, what would our odds be?
 
The other deer hunt I did that year was for the Henry Mountains. I'm actually planning to double my investment this year and do $20 in OIL and elk tags.

I don't love the idea of expo tags. I hate the way that the administrators (SFW isn't the only administrator of this expo...) get most of the money with no accountability. But alas, this is the game. I could choose to attempt to take the "moral high road" and not participate because I don't like all the aspects of what it means and represents, or I can play the game and hope to get great tags. I'll never be the guy that drops hundreds of dollars in application fees there. I pick a few tags each year and hope I get lucky. My first time ever putting in for expo tags was 2012, I drew. Last year, not so lucky. This year the chances aren't great, but someone has to draw. Why not me? It's kind of like the lottery. It wasn't worth buying a ticket for anyone except the person that won...
 
Don't some of these raffle hunts make you resident guys shake your head? Especially the NR-only tags. They raffle a NR-only bighorn tag and a desert sheep tag, with each one generating a little more than $4000.00 in total ticket sales. The notion I assume, was to generate more out-of-state foot traffic to the Expo. Based on the ticket sales, that traffic is "rather light". Raffling off $100,000.00 to $150,000.00 worth of sheep tags for a mere $8,000.00 seems tough to justify.
 
Your numbers are way, way off!

Deer odds, 1:1467 or .00068166325%
Elk Odds, 1:1234 or .00081037277%

If the odds were really around 2% & 1%, there would have to be about 1700 elk tags, and nearly 600 deer tags.

86000+ applicants for 70 Elk tags
58000+ applicants for 40 Deer tags

SOmeone please, please correct me if I am wrong, it its really a 2% chance I will spend the money!!!


2a0fcsk.gif
 
Tony, your odds are not correct. You've calculated the average odds when applying for any one tag. Consider you apply for all 14 deer hunts and your odds would be 14 times better, or roughly 1 in 100 for deer.

It would be one thing if these tags were being supplied by SFW and we had a chance to hunt that we otherwise would not have. The fact is that these are public tags that were taken from us to begin with! Our odds of drawing a tag in the big game draw are now worse because of the expo.

I know there are a lot of folks who have drawn tags and love the expo. I just think of all the people who would have drawn in the big game drawing if the expo went away. They take a full 5% of our LE deer tags from the public and then give them out to the people who are short-sighted enough to support their scam.
 
If expo tags went back into the public draw, I certainly wouldn't complain. However, they aren't, and they won't.

And yes, the out-of-state draws bug me. But me being mad about it won't change it.
 
I like the references to roulette posted above. When you consider that, we really gain nothing from these expo tags. We lose big time in the regular drawing and all we get in return is a chance to gamble. Well, we can gamble any day of the week with any dollar amount we choose. If I feel like throwing down $70 for a 1:100 chance at a deer hunt I would rather put that $70 on the roulette wheel and pay for a hunt if I won.

If you were to put in at the expo every year until your odds reached 100% you would have paid $3435 for the Book Cliffs tag and $43,610 for the Henry's tag. I guess if you think that's a good deal then go ahead and keep applying!
 
I agree the odds suck.

I agree, SFW has done some shady things.

But at the same time, they've done a lot of good. And by "they", I mean all the sportsmen that volunteer their time and efforts into making hunting better. Don't crucify everyone in the organization because of a couple dipshits.

And, furthermore, actually getting a tag in Utah is ridiculous. I for one like having the chance to put in for multiple tags in my home state. Otherwise it is very likely that I won't get to hunt several species in my lifetime here. It's a damn good thing we can go out of state to hunt. Heaven forbid the day that priviledge goes away.

So, for all the haters out there, what would you do in replace of the expo? Everybody likes to b!tch and moan, but very few ever have an idea of their own.
 
>Tony, your odds are not correct.
> You've calculated the average
>odds when applying for any
>one tag. Consider you
>apply for all 14 deer
>hunts and your odds would
>be 14 times better, or
>roughly 1 in 100 for
>deer.


2a0fcsk.gif


Is that really how it works? I figured it would be like flipping a quarter, every flip is 50/50, even if you just had tails 4 times in a row. Let's say they do each draw one at a time, you fail the first 10, the 11th is still going to be around 1:1400 for Deer. failing the first 10 does not give you better odds in the 11th draw.

My logic could be flawed, I did not do well at math in HS!
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-12-14 AT 10:30AM (MST)[p] Finding the overall odds is not that hard. There were 40 deer tags given out last year. There were 58,692 entries.

40/58,692 = 0.00068 or .068% or 1 in 1,467 drew tags... Averaged over ALL deer tags. Some tags have better odds than 1/1467, and some have worse odds, but the average draw rate is 1/1467.

I'm not sure how you would find there was a 1% (1 in 100) chance of drawing any big game tag..?? Increasing the number of DIFFERENT tags you put in for DOES NOT INCREASE your odds of drawing a tag. For example: Last year there were 10 Book Cliffs rifle deer tags, with 6871 entries. 10/6871 = 1/687 or a 0.146% chance of drawing a tag. If you were to also have put in for a Vernon rifle deer 5/5134 = 1/1027 or 0.097% chance you could average those two entries to 2/1714 = 1/857 or 0.117% chance of drawing one of those two tags... Slightly better odds than the Vernon alone, but slightly worse than the Book Cliffs alone.

If you buy multiple entries for THE SAME TAG, then your odds of drawing that tag go up... With the Book Cliffs example, if you purchased 10 entries, your odds would go from 1/687 up to 1/68.7, or basically a 1.5% chance to draw the tag. If you bought 100 entries, it would go up to 1/6.87 or about 15% chance to draw 1 of the 10 tags...

There is another way to look at it though. Figure your odds for each individual draw as they go along... If you have just one entry in the Book Cliffs rifle pot for 10 possible tags, then for the first draw you have a 10/6871 chance of drawing, if you don't get it, your odds go to 9/6870, then 8/6869, 7/6868, 6/6867, 5/6866, 4/6865, 3/6864, 2/6863, 1/6862. As you can see, the odds get lower as the tags disappear. So you can feel worse and worse as the odds get longer and longer...

With all of that said, you have to pay to play. I may just go for a $5 entry somewhere. Like the toilet.


"Therefore, wo be unto him that is at ease in Zion!" 2 Ne. 28: 24
 
257Tony- In your coin flipping scenario yes for each honest flip you have 50% odds for heads and 50% odds for tails. But for the calculation under discussion you must ask: "if I flip a coin 5 times (or 10 times or 5,563 times) what are the chances that I get heads at least once ?" The more times you "flip" (or enter deer raffles), the more likely you are to get heads at least once (or win one deer tag).
 
Like I edited into my above post, multiple entries for THE SAME TAG increase your odds for THAT tag. But putting in 1 entry for each of the tags does not help. Your odds would still be 14/58692 = 0.024%

If only two PEOPLE put in for one tag, your odds are not 50/50 unless the entries were split 50/50. I buy one entry, and you buy 4999 entries. My odds are 1/5000, your odds are 4999/5000. The number of people is irrelevant to your odds of drawing, only the number of entries matters.

"Therefore, wo be unto him that is at ease in Zion!" 2 Ne. 28: 24
 
>LAST EDITED ON Feb-12-14
>AT 10:30?AM (MST)
>
> Finding the overall odds is
>not that hard. There were
>40 deer tags given out
>last year. There were 58,692
>entries.
>
> 40/58,692 = 0.00068 or .068%
>or 1 in 1,467 drew
>tags... Averaged over ALL deer
>tags. Some tags have better
>odds than 1/1467, and some
>have worse odds, but the
>average draw rate is 1/1467.
>
>
> I'm not sure how you
>would find there was a
>1% (1 in 100) chance
>of drawing any big game
>tag..?? Increasing the number of
>DIFFERENT tags you put in
>for DOES NOT INCREASE your
>odds of drawing a tag.
>For example: Last year there
>were 10 Book Cliffs rifle
>deer tags, with 6871 entries.
>10/6871 = 1/687 or a
>0.146% chance of drawing a
>tag. If you were to
>also have put in for
>a Vernon rifle deer 5/5134
>= 1/1027 or 0.097% chance
>you could average those two
>entries to 2/1714 = 1/857
>or 0.117% chance of drawing
>one of those two tags...
>Slightly better odds than the
>Vernon alone, but slightly worse
>than the Book Cliffs alone.
>
>
> If you buy multiple entries
>for THE SAME TAG, then
>your odds of drawing that
>tag go up... With the
>Book Cliffs example, if you
>purchased 10 entries, your odds
>would go from 1/687 up
>to 1/68.7, or basically a
>1.5% chance to draw the
>tag. If you bought 100
>entries, it would go up
>to 1/6.87 or about 15%
>chance to draw 1 of
>the 10 tags...
>
> There is another way to
>look at it though. Figure
>your odds for each individual
>draw as they go along...
>If you have just one
>entry in the Book Cliffs
>rifle pot for 10 possible
>tags, then for the first
>draw you have a 10/6871
>chance of drawing, if you
>don't get it, your odds
>go to 9/6870, then 8/6869,
>7/6868, 6/6867, 5/6866, 4/6865, 3/6864,
>2/6863, 1/6862. As you can
>see, the odds get lower
>as the tags disappear. So
>you can feel worse and
>worse as the odds get
>longer and longer...
>
> With all of that said,
>you have to pay to
>play. I may just go
>for a $5 entry somewhere.
>Like the toilet.
>
>
>"Therefore, wo be unto him that
>is at ease in Zion!"
>2 Ne. 28: 24

You do realize that you can only buy one chance per tag right?

And of course entering more drawings increases the chance to draw one tag. Otherwise, there'd be no reason for anyone to spend more than $5.00 at the expo.
 
> Like I edited into my
>above post, multiple entries for
>THE SAME TAG increase your
>odds for THAT tag. But
>putting in 1 entry for
>each of the tags does
>not help. Your odds would
>still be 14/58692 = 0.024%
>
>
> If only two PEOPLE put
>in for one tag, your
>odds are not 50/50 unless
>the entries were split 50/50.
>I buy one entry, and
>you buy 4999 entries. My
>odds are 1/5000, your odds
>are 4999/5000. The number of
>people is irrelevant to your
>odds of drawing, only the
>number of entries matters.
>
>"Therefore, wo be unto him that
>is at ease in Zion!"
>2 Ne. 28: 24

Browning, slow down brother and think it through a little more. The entry rules dictate only one chance per tag per person. If a person's draw odds for getting one tag did not increase for every additional drawing entered, there'd be no reason for anyone to spend more than 5 bucks each year on convention tags.
 
Yes the odds suck. But I didn't say I wasn't going to try. Someones got to get lucky ! Maybe me this year ? I have put in at the expo every year and no I haven't drew a thing. But it is fun to see all of the animals, great people and companies that support our great hunting industry.
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-12-14 AT 01:44PM (MST)[p]I apologize to Sticksender, and to DryFlyElk...

I have been sufficiently humbled... :)


"Therefore, wo be unto him that is at ease in Zion!" 2 Ne. 28: 24
 
Browning, my man, you're way off.

Think of it this way.

You put in for two tags-

You put in for one tag that has a 50% to draw. There's one other guy entering and one tag available. 1-2.

The second tag has much longer odds. You put in along with 99 other people. You've got a 1% chance to draw that tag. 1-100.

What are the chances you draw one of those tags? Using your math, it would be 2-101, or right about 2%. BZZZZZT. Wrong answer. Your odds of drawing one tag will never be worse than the odds of the best tag you put in for. If you want me to go over the formula I can do it, but it's much more complex than just adding and averaging.


Vi Et Armis Invictus Maneo
 
Here it is if you want to figure it out on your own.

Where Pn = the probability of event
n = 1 - ((1-P1)*(1-P2)*(1-P3)*(1-P4)...)

As the number of draws and the probabilities go up, so do your chances.

In the case I made above with the guy with a 1/2 and a 1/100 shot,

n = 1 - ((1-.50)*(1-.01))
n = 1 - .495
n = .505

Chances of drawing at least one of those two tags are a hair over 50%, or .505.

One more example.

Let's say your chances of winning four random drawings is 10%, 20%, 30%, and 25%. The probability that you win all four is 0.1*0.2*0.3*0.25 = 0.0015

So the probability that you lose at least one is 1 - 0.0015 = 0.9985 or 99.85%.


Your chances of losing the four random drawings is 90%, 80%, 70%,and 75%. So the probability that you lose all of them is 0.9*0.8*0.7*0.75 = 0.378

So the probability that you win at least one is 1 - 0.378 = 0.622 or 62.2%.

Vi Et Armis Invictus Maneo
 
I would have already drawn my non-res MNT goat tag and probably my Bookscliff tag too if they did not take the tags from the general pool
 
Thanks DryFlyElk- I'm seeing it now... It's like I'm seeing the post for the first time...

So using the equation you provided for the chance of losing all 14 random deer drawings

1-((1-.146)*(1-.141)*(1-.121)*(1-.011)*(1-.045)*(1-.045)*(1-.067)*(1-.030)*(1-.038)*(1-.024)*(1-.065)*(1-.097)*(1-.099)*(1-.078)) = 1 - 0.34483 = 0.655 or 65.5%

Leaving a chance that I win at least one of them at 34.5% ..??

I'm sorry, I must have messed something up..??



"Therefore, wo be unto him that is at ease in Zion!" 2 Ne. 28: 24
 
To make your headache worse...lol. If you really want to get technical, the odds are just ever-so-slightly better than dryflyelk calculated. The reason is that applicants can only accept one tag per species. As each tag winner is selected, his entries for all other tags of that same species are no longer valid. It doesn't work precisely that way, since they use an alternates system where the winner of multiple tags for one species must select one tag. But the net effect on draw odds is the same.
 
Well, after much consideration, I'm still confused! But it doesn't really matter. I will bet you this though, no one in this thread will draw anything!


2a0fcsk.gif
 
Right idea, but you've got your decimals in the wrong spots. The first one should be .00146. 6871/10= .001455



Vi Et Armis Invictus Maneo
 
WRONG attitude 257, I'm already planning my Hennries hunt!


Sit tall in the saddle, hold your head up high, keep your eyes fixed to where the trail meets the sky...
 
Thanks DryFly, I moved the decimal thinking I was designating the actual percentage in the equation, not the decimal representation of it...

I got it now. Thanks man.

"Therefore, wo be unto him that is at ease in Zion!" 2 Ne. 28: 24
 
This has got to be one of the funniest posts ever!
Not being mean cause its been awhile since I took statistics and would most likely screw up my interpertation of the formula but dam seeing all of these opinions is hilarious :)

Mntman

"Hunting is where you prove yourself"


Let me guess, you drive a 1 ton with oak trees for smoke stacks, 12" lift kit and 40" tires to pull a single place lawn mower trailer?
 
Thank goodness for Google!

Advice from a Grizzly: Live Large. Take
what is yours. Scratch what itches.
 

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