Huntin Fool odds?

OldJake · Feb 12, 2014

I'm just going through my planning stages for this falls' hunts.
I am looking at New Mexico's draw odds from their website. I started out using some of the statistics that the huntin fool put out, but as I cross- check that with the actual numbers, I'm coming up with different percentages for the odds of drawing the tags.....

Has anyone else noticed how far off HF is on their calculations?

grizzly · Feb 12, 2014

Don't pay attention to HF odds on places with bonus points or multiple choices as they don't factor those in.

HF divides tags by 1st choice applicants. NM actually considers the applicants first 3 choices, which really distorts it.

An example... HF shows Deer 5B as 33% for guided and 3% for unguided. The actual numbers are 4.2% guided and .3% unguided. Not even close.

You really need to pay to get true odds anymore.

Grizzly

OldJake · Feb 12, 2014

Yep!
That's what I'm noticing.....
Not even close!
Which equals "WORTHLESS" to me.....
Instead of percentages, they would be better off listing the units in three categories.... Easy, Medium, and Hard....to draw.... That would be more informative....

Sierra · Feb 12, 2014

LAST EDITED ON Feb-12-14 AT 11:19PM (MST)[p]The odds are also worthless for hunts that have non-resident caps but do not have a separate non-resident draw. Take a look at the published odds for Idaho goat and compare that to reality (after the cap is factored in). Big difference. IMO, HF could do a better job of informing its customers, but it chooses not to.

elkassassin · Feb 12, 2014

Yup!

Got a Friend that Reads HF like a f'n Bible!

And Believes all of their BS!

How bout the part that reads:Should be able to harvest 170"-180" Bucks!

I'm sure in certain Units you should be able too but leaves a lot to be desired in a lot of other Units!

If somebody says it,or types it,it must be Gospel to some!

But I Ain't buyin it all!

By the way OldJake,How the Hell are Ya?

[font color="red"]From My Smokin Cherry Red Hot Barrel & My Dead Cold Hands I Shall go down Fighting for American Pride & Rights!
I Know I'm Out Numbered by Pusssies & Brainwashed Democrats that'll Throw Their Hands in the air & I know I can't Lick the U.S. Military by Myself when they Turn on us but I'll make
you one Guarantee,They'll be Enduring a Situation where I Hope to Hell All Americans become True Americans once again & Stand up for their Rights!

OldJake · Feb 13, 2014

I'm doing great elkas.....
I'm surprised anyone on MM even remembers me....
Heck. founder had to send me an email not too long ago to login or he was gonna delete me!!!!!
Can you believe that?????
I couldn't even remember my password. I almost forgot my MM name!
I still have been checking in tho... You seem to have mellowed out some?

elkassassin · Feb 13, 2014

Hell Ya I remember You!

Any Bucks or Bulls in the last few years?

Mellowed Out?

Don't know about that!

[font color="red"]From My Smokin Cherry Red Hot Barrel & My Dead Cold Hands I Shall go down Fighting for American Pride & Rights!
I Know I'm Out Numbered by Pusssies & Brainwashed Democrats that'll Throw Their Hands in the air & I know I can't Lick the U.S. Military by Myself when they Turn on us but I'll make
you one Guarantee,They'll be Enduring a Situation where I Hope to Hell All Americans become True Americans once again & Stand up for their Rights!