passthrough
Active Member
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With all of the chatter about E-PLUS and a 90/10 split on tags, I thought I would pick a unit and go through the numbers. As with all of these exercises we have some assumptions, so the numbers are not EXACT, but they give you an idea of what some of these changes would equate to. Secondly the numbers are from the complete draw report 2021, found on the G&F website. Landowner information is from the landowner list also found on the website. Odds are never an exact science, but rather an adequate representation of the probablilty of success. Here goes....
ELK 1-187
Current draw process with the 84/10/6 split
Resident odds-3.4%
NR odds-2%
Outfitter odds-4.6%
With a 90/10 split
1st assumption is that of the 217 applicants in the outfitter pool, 80% of them are NR.
2nd assumption is that the remaining 20% are resident applicants, which I think is too high but whatever.
3rd assumption is that all everyone that applied in the outfitter pool would continue to apply as a NR or resident. Essentially saying that the number of applicants stays the same, just distributed differently.
Resident odds-3.6%
NR odds-2%
E-PLUS, I took all of the UW bull tags for this unit, which was 38 and divided them by 3 since they could potentially be validated for the muzzy hunt and 1st and 2nd rifle hunt and then added them into the draw tag pool, as that is what most suggest that we do once we cut them out of the landowners pool. The first assumption is that all of those ranches dont opt to go RO and maintain their tag numbers. Second assumption is that it is with a 90/10 split, since we all seem to hate the outfitter welfare program.
Resident odds-4.1%
NR odds-2.2%
Lost access to hunt private land with a public draw tag-9,648 elk acres, not including the huge blocks of public land that they open up for easier access.
I know this is only one unit, chosen at random, and there are a ton of assumptions, but its something to look at and ponder the benfits and consequences of lobying for all of these changes. I know you all think that once we change it, you'll draw a tag every year, but thats just not the case. And yes, I have way too much time on my hands now that I'm not constantly checking the G&F website for results.
ELK 1-187
Current draw process with the 84/10/6 split
Resident odds-3.4%
NR odds-2%
Outfitter odds-4.6%
With a 90/10 split
1st assumption is that of the 217 applicants in the outfitter pool, 80% of them are NR.
2nd assumption is that the remaining 20% are resident applicants, which I think is too high but whatever.
3rd assumption is that all everyone that applied in the outfitter pool would continue to apply as a NR or resident. Essentially saying that the number of applicants stays the same, just distributed differently.
Resident odds-3.6%
NR odds-2%
E-PLUS, I took all of the UW bull tags for this unit, which was 38 and divided them by 3 since they could potentially be validated for the muzzy hunt and 1st and 2nd rifle hunt and then added them into the draw tag pool, as that is what most suggest that we do once we cut them out of the landowners pool. The first assumption is that all of those ranches dont opt to go RO and maintain their tag numbers. Second assumption is that it is with a 90/10 split, since we all seem to hate the outfitter welfare program.
Resident odds-4.1%
NR odds-2.2%
Lost access to hunt private land with a public draw tag-9,648 elk acres, not including the huge blocks of public land that they open up for easier access.
I know this is only one unit, chosen at random, and there are a ton of assumptions, but its something to look at and ponder the benfits and consequences of lobying for all of these changes. I know you all think that once we change it, you'll draw a tag every year, but thats just not the case. And yes, I have way too much time on my hands now that I'm not constantly checking the G&F website for results.
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