I estimated about 8% also as I also have 9 as well as another buddy of mine and we also applied. I think the wild card is the number of applicants as it looks like there was a significant drop of apps for this hunt last year. So if it returns more like previous years, I think odds are probably more like 5% or less. But at least we have a chance. I have a NR friend with 11 that looks to be very close to drawing it but not a lock!