Nevada Elk...........Early Archery or Late Rifle?

[Eastwood]

I'm starting to get my point total up there with 6 now, and have a decent chance of drawing before long. Thought I'd ask your guy's opinion on my best chance to harvest a good bull. Nevada has dam near no peak rut hunting. It's either an early archery hunt, or a late rifle hunt. I checked the harvest success rates and overall the archery hunts seem to run about 50% and the rifle 75%. However, I expect the rifle hunters are more apt to show up with family/friends as spotting is more important. That's been my experience when I've drawn such tags. I will not have that advantage. I will be hunting solo unguided. I really prefer archery hunting anyway, and have been on many such elk hunts. So do you think my odds of harvesting a bigger bull would be better on one of the Sept 1-14 archery hunts when bugling will aid me, or on a later hunt with rifle in hand?

I've got a 330 & 340 on the wall already so will be looking for a 350. There are three archery hunts available to NR's......units 111, 161 & 231. I've been thinking these should be my first three choices on the application from now on.

If I applied for one of the late rifle hunts I expect I'd be camping solo in the snow which I'm not wild about either. With no spotters but me. I have only been on one late elk hunt in my life, in the Montana Breaks. Elk were not very easy to spot nor approach. I am curious to hear from you guys that have been on some of these late hunts. Thanks.

 

[COSA]

LAST EDITED ON Mar-09-06 AT 01:21PM (MST)[p]Eastwood,
A quick look at the odds show that a nonresident with 6 points has about a 10% chance of drawing a rifle tag. Archery was around 6%. I'm a resident with 5 points and I figured my odds at 5%. So I don't know if I'd count on drawing one of these tags in the next few years. I've hunted archery cow elk in the the schell creek range a few years ago and the bulls did not start bugling until Sept. 19 when a cold front moved in, so those archery dates may be a little early. In Nevada you can mix your choice of weapon, and they go through each applicants 5 choices before moving on to the next applicant. You may also mix rifle and archery units. So listing your top units first does not hurt your chance of drawing your lower choices. Good Luck.

 

[Eastwood]

Ya, I was figuring about what you mention, 10% for rifle, 6% for archery. Those are actually good odds compared to most places I apply. Drawn <1% hunts before.

I was thinking the exact thing you were about those archery dates. Dam they looked tough. Wish they ran just a week later. I keep thinking they will adjust them someday and it never happens. Oh well, that is why the bulls are so big.

I've been mixing my apps previously, but just wanted to revisit my strategy as far as priorety.

 

[NVguide]

Eastwood,

The archery hunt is definetly a week or two early, but in my experience sometimes, that is the best time to get some of the older herd bulls before they gather up a harem and stop looking for new cows. I have hunted 111-222 quite a bit, and although the bulls don't get really fired up until the last week of the hunt they are bugleing at the begining. Historiclly 111-222 is the top producer of record book heads followed by 231 and then 161. Remember 161 is a widlerness area so access is tougher. Although two of the biggest elk were killed in 16 it doesn't produce as many record book bulls, hope this helped you a little.

 

[Califelkslayer]

Why not just make the Monitors rifle your first choice like everyone else does? It's the rifle rut hunt. The odds are about 1/1600 to draw with 0 pts. With 6 pts squared your odds are only about 1/50. I don't know if it's the best hunt but it does have the best dates. The people I've talked to that have hunted it say there are some real quality bulls but they are spread out and it's mostly wilderness. Good Luck!

 

[Cass]

I have to agree with NVGuide. I've spent the last 10 years up there during the rut either deer / elk hunting. The rut is in full blast during the last week of the archery elk hunt, BUT, There is a REALLY good chance, if the weathers not too hot in 111-222 that the decent bulls, your 350-370 bulls will be rutting hard and easily able to call in. I'll be up there during the archery opening filming so i'll let everyone know how they're calling.




-Cass

 

[HuntElk4Fun]

I would like to see the math you guys use to calculate odds using the Nevada squared system. It seemed pretty straight forward, but when trying it out.. no so. Any ideas?

 

[COSA]

LAST EDITED ON Mar-14-06 AT 03:03PM (MST)[p]In Nevada you get 5 choices before they move onto the next person. On the Nevada bonus points statistics page, they only list successful vs. 1st choice applicants. Many of the the successful applicants did not list that unit as their first choice. So if you take all the successful for a certain point class add devide that number by all the successful + 1st choice applicants for the same point class, You'll have a better idea for your chances.

Example:
If there were 2000 1st choice applicants and 75 successful applicants with 5 bonus points your odds would be approximately 75/2075 or 3.6%. Now if you have less desirable units as your choices your odds may improve a little as it would lower your odds some if you only had the best units.

 

[HuntElk4Fun]

LAST EDITED ON Mar-14-06 AT 03:28PM (MST)[p]EDIT- Disregard below regarding your post- you were going by just one point class. Still what about below? Across point classes? or calculating odds for Nevada?

ORIGINAL-
Wouldn't you have to calculate how many points those 2000 applicants had? Just using 2000 does give the system credit. For example, say 1000 had 0 points and 500 had 1 point and you get the idea up to 2000. 75 applicants with 5 points drew, but say I have 3 points and want to calc my odds on what they would have been, etc. or 0 points?

Wouldn't you need to generate all the total numbers generated using points squared + 1 (for your app you sent in)? This info is on one of their PDF's (success/unsuccess by point).

Maybe I'm missing something obvious??

 

[COSA]

You'd have to add up all units' successful and first choice applicants for each point class for each species. Where it gets really confusing is when you cosider people applying for different weapon hunts. This will just give someone a general idea about their odds.

 

[Eastwood]

Thanks. Can you generally describe the quality/experience of a late season rifle hunt? Do most the tag holders use multiple spotters as I suspect? Is access an issue with snow in most these areas? I did a December hunt in Utah once and it was not very enjoyable. Temps got below zero, snow prevented me from driving to some spots up high, etc. Are the bulls still up high for most Nevada's late hunts? Or in more accessible areas?