NM youth Deer Hunts

GoBigorGohome · Mar 12, 2012

Now that my kids have passed their hunter safety, I wanted to find out what unit are good to get drawn for them. Here is what i decided to put them in for.
First Choice- 2B
Second CHoice-45
Third Choice-5B
I picked unit 45 because its mainly all FS land I dont want to deal with private land issue. I just want to have my boys have a great hunt and think about if we are in a private land or public land.
I have been to 2b and 5b and i know the land there its just that i wanted to find out how unit 45 is with deer numbers. Not looking for a big bucks.
All your input will be greatly appreciated
Thanks

NMPaul · Mar 12, 2012

That 2B youth sounds pretty good with 18% odds.

I do not know the Northern NM youth hunts to well, but, I would find one with lots of deer to see.

1FastGambler · Mar 13, 2012

The 2b youth hunt is too early to catch the migratory deer from Colorado. It is not that great of a hunt.

2B can be an awesome hunt if the heavy snows come early or it can be really tough hunting with so many other hunters chasing the resident deer.

I would recomend unit 16. fewer deer, but not at all hard to find and much easier to draw.

Check the odds on 5b.. not worth putting in for IMO, especially as a 3rd choice.

If you want a guaranteed tag, the Sept archery is a no brainer, the muzzleloader hunt is also pretty easy to draw, but like I said earlier.. there is a reason for the good draw odds. Very low success ratio on the early hunts.

aepadil · Mar 13, 2012

ihunt 45 alot and it was rough last year

GoBigorGohome · Mar 13, 2012

I just want the boys to draw even if the deer herd isn't thar good like some mentioned. Its there first time applying and I just want them to go out and learn the techniques of hunting.

SDBugler · Mar 15, 2012

Not sure if you are a res or non-res. However based on what you posted, if I was a resident I would apply my kids for:
#1 - 4 late youth season
#2 - 5B youth
#3 - 2B youth

NR's can't hunt unit 4 anymore so if you are a NR I would change the above to:
#1 - 2C (late adult)
#2 - 5B youth
#3 - 2B youth

Since they look at all three choices before moving to the next applicant, then you just as well try for one of the better units and maybe get lucky. Put down an easier draw unit as your third choice. As mentioned above the early 2b youth hunt isn't that great for mature bucks but if you just want to get out and hunt, then it would be an ok choice.

My son drew the NR tag in 5B a couple years ago as his second choice. Fun hunt!!!

GoBigorGohome · Mar 15, 2012

SDBugler- nice buck your son got. Im a resident and my boys will be applying for the hunts since they just passed their hunter safety. Im concentrating on them this year. Is unit 4 mostly private land? Thanks for your advice!

cosmic_cowboy · Mar 16, 2012

Unit 4 is all private except Humphries and Rio Chama WMAs
GL
CC

SDBugler · Mar 16, 2012

Cosmic is correct. Only the SWMA's in unit 4 but that is why the quality is there as the deer have some time to get old on the private land. NR's can't apply there anymore based on last years legislative changes making SWMA's off limits to NR's. We saw some real nice bucks in there when we drove by before and after my son's hunt.

nmall · Mar 16, 2012

Unit 21 is a realtively easy draw and gets hammered during the general rifle season, but I think they offer some great three weekend youth hunts late in the year and the deer numbers are pretty good, next would be 10 and 17 IMO....ive got a couple more years for my 8 year old but these are the units I'm counting on.

1FastGambler · Mar 17, 2012

Brian, it's awesome that your son drew the ONLY NR 5b youth tag as his 2nd choice. There were 86 unguided non-res applicants for the 5b youth and only 1 tag available.

He was VERY lucky in the draw and took an incredible buck.

That being said, in my opinion your suggestion of hunts are not good choices for a kid that just wants to go hunt and have a chance at a decent buck. The drawing odds for the choices you provided are very, very low, quality hunts yes, but slim chance to draw at best.

I strongly suggest that the OP makes up his mind about what type of hunt he wants for his kid and then study the drawing odds reports AND study the success ratio's before making his choice on hunts.

Also, they way you described the way the draw works is correct, however when I look at the draw odds reports and see what the odds are for 2nd and 3rd choice hunts I am going to strongly disagree with you because the chances of drawing a hunt as a 2nd or 3rd choice are NOT the same as drawing them as a 1st choice.

That's why the draw odds report here on MM is flawed in my opinion. The way the MM draw odds are calculated for NM is by taking all of the applicants for a hunt code (1st, 2nd, & 3rd choices) and then dividing the number of each pool drawn by the total number of applicants in that pool. (pool = resident, nonresident, & guided nonresident).

There are tons of hunt codes that fill up with 1st choice applicants, therefore the odds of drawing it as a 2nd or 3rd choice is zero percent.

I hope this helps...

SDBugler · Mar 19, 2012

Fastgambler

I agree, when applying in NM you need to look at the number of applicants for 1st, 2nd, and 3rd choices, as these ALL come into play - not just 1st choice applicants. However the OP listed in order 1st - unit 2B, 2nd - unit 45, and 3rd unit 5B. If you look at the draw odds for residents considering 1st/2nd/3rd choice applicants the odds are:

Unit 2B - 23%
unit 45 - 9%
and Unit 5B - 2%

Therefore the OP had his easiest to draw choice first and his hardest to draw choice last. This makes no sense. If his name got drawn first in the drawing then he would blow his chance for one of the better tags because he would draw the easier unit 2B tag before the 45 or 5B tag.

The point in my suggestions was to put the harder to draw but better quality hunts as your first and second choices in case your name gets drawn early in the drawing and then put the easier to draw hunt as your last choice. I also threw in the unit 4 hunt as I think this is a much better hunt than unit 45 even though they both have difficult odds of drawing.

You also indicated "There are tons of hunt codes that fill up with 1st choice applicants, therefore the odds of drawing it as a 2nd or 3rd choice is zero percent." That is incorrect. Any tag can be drawn as a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd choice. It all depends on when your name is drawn and what tags are still available. In fact if you look at the full odds report, you will see there are several tags that are drawn as 2nd and 3rd choices.

My son's drawing of unit 5B as a second choice is a perfect example of how that can work. We listed the unit 2C adult hunt as his first choice that year. Obviously his name was drawn VERY early in the process. When they pulled his name they looked at 2C and found that NR tag was already allocated, then they went to his second choice and the 5B tag was still available so he got it.

1FastGambler · Mar 19, 2012

>You also indicated "There are tons
>of hunt codes that fill
>up with 1st choice applicants,
>therefore the odds of drawing
>it as a 2nd or
>3rd choice is zero percent."
> That is incorrect.
>Any tag can be drawn
>as a 1st, 2nd, or
>3rd choice. It all
>depends on when your name
>is drawn and what tags
>are still available. In
>fact if you look at
>the full odds report, you
>will see there are several
>tags that are drawn as
>2nd and 3rd choices.
>

Incorrect? Tell that to the 1,304 people who had DER-1-125 as their 2nd & 3rd choice. Zero drew - therefore their odds were zero percent, right?

This is only one example out of hundreds where 2nd & 3rd choice draw odds are zero percent.

I have spent countless hours studying the NM draw system. That's why I said that in general your thought process is correct. I think you & I are on the same page, just different paragraphs.

It is theoretically/mathmatically possible for someone to draw 2C deer as a 2nd or 3rd choice, but I will also tell you that the odds of that happening have a whole bunch of zero's before & after the decimal point. All this really doesn't mater to the 1,304 people who didn't draw does it? And this is just ONE hunt code!

More to my madness...

Most people have a basic understanding of how the draw works and enter their hunt code choices in an incresing order regarding chance to draw (myself included). The example/suggestion you provided is a perfect example. 5b, 45, 2b - would be the most common methodology regarding draw odds, If this person actually wanted to hunt 5b really bad.

I hope you see where I'm coming from regarding the fact that the draw odds are NOT the same for a specific hunt code on all three choices. That's the point I was trying to make.

Resident deer applicants, 1st choice - 43431; 2nd choice - 39826; 3rd choice - 34439 = 117696 total

Resident deer tags drawn: 1st choice - 17150; 2nd choice - 7257; 3rd choice - 4025 = 28,432

Overall odds to draw 1st choice = 39.4%
Overall odds to draw 2nd choice = 18.2%
Overall odds to draw 3rd chocie = 11.6%

This includes some people who put 2nd & 3rd choice hunts that are guaranteed or close to guaranteed draw. These are the people who just want to go hunt.

Individual hunt codes vary considerably. Some may be zero % odds for 2nd & 3rd choice while others may be a slam dunk.

Use this data at your own discretion...

Side note: This is why I would like to see all 1st choice apps drawn first, then proceed to 2nd choice, etc. The idea is to seperate the trophy hunters from the meat hunters in the way that we all apply now. They are some people who want a bull tag, but are happy to settle for a cow tag that hate the idea of drawing 1st choice first, however with this system they, just like everyone else will have to make the choice and the chances of drawing the tag you really want will greatly improve.

Cheers