Nonresident Draw Odds - HF

[DonMartin]

Doug:

At this point I have made no contacts with ANY G&F people on this.

Figured to bring it up at the Master Instructors meeting in March and see what my peers think of the idea before I go forward with it.

I don't have any data at this point on the decline of first time NR applicants for elk or deer, but I'm sure that might be an issue. I think that keeping folks who have been in the system for 5+ years is the important issue as they are the ones who are learning just where they are as far as a chance at drawing any PREMIUM tags.

Don

 

[vmcfadden]

This idea will help alot of NR but it will eliminate alot of chances for guys who apply as a group. I always apply with the same guy and the hunts that only have 2 nr tags would be impossible to draw then. Applying as agroup always hurts your chances but this would make it worse even if you had max points. I would think the majority of NR apply atleast with 2 on a App. Thanks for thinking of the NR though we don't have much pulling for us.

 

[excaliber]

I have 8 points, nine this year with the bonus point I'm sending in for. I only want to hunt 1,9,3AC or 10 and I'm not sure I want to wait until I'm 65 to draw it. (50 now)

I think I'm going to stay in long enough to see if they somehow change the point sysytem to allow us NR hunters a chance at 1 or 2 tags in the regular draw.
What's wrong with allowing us a small one in a million chance at a tag? It sure would keep many of us in the game and others would apply knowing they still have a chance.

I wish they would allow us to sell our points because mine would be up for sale if the system stays the same.

 

[biggameballer]

I am a Non-Resident with 4 points for everything and will get my loyalty point after this year. From reading all of the comments it sounds like what I am hearing is that I should be putting in for mid-level hunts if I want to draw a tag in the next 20 years. IS THIS ACCURATE??

 

[Zim]

Yes with the current system I'm afraid so. After I burn my 9 points for unit 8 or 27 I will be targeting the lesser units likely til I'm done physically. If I were you I'd go for 6A or something.

 

[piper]

LAST EDITED ON Jan-30-11 AT 12:01PM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Jan-30-11 AT 10:29?AM (MST)

I didn't read all of these comments, so maybe Im repeating, but changing to a flat 10% of tags going to nonresidents would solve most of this. Nevada, Utah, Wyoming, all give a flat 10% or more to nonresidents, this up to, and no more than 10% is crap in my opinion. I have 15 elk points and that cost a pretty good chunk of change and takes commentment over time, I wonder if the commissioners don't care, or what they even think about when changing the lottery rules .

 

[Clark]

Is this system the same across all species for NR?

 

[Clark]

As a NR, you might be better off just putting in for the Super Raffle and not apply for permits through the draw. At least you have a chance at a tag, help wildlife and your donation counts as a tax deduction.

 

[maddglasser]

LAST EDITED ON Jan-30-11 AT 06:55PM (MST)[p]

As far as deer goes... we had a hunter draw a unit (not a premium unit) with 2 points, thats right 2 points and kill a 198 typical buck! There are plenty of choices, just do your homework bud! Not all hunting is in the "premium" units! If your only here to #####, then keep bitchin! Otherwise...go hunting!

Not bad for a "non-trophy" hunt!

Travis
www.southwesthuntingadventures.com

 

[DonMartin]

Travis:

You are right and that buck your buddy is holding proves it. Yes, there are boomer bucks in the desert and you boys are certaintly on top of your game.

There are big elk in EVERY unit in AZ, though for sure not as many or as big in what I would only describe as "marginal" units.

I now of one deal where an archer put in for a multi-unit and bagged an 8 X 7 that scores 381. Not bad for a unit that a few years ago you could draw with literally no points.

NR sportsmen just need to know how the bonus point system works, and how our draw system works.

Then, if they do their homework, they can find units that they can draw for and though they are not the units you'll see mentioned in the outdoor magazines, they can none-the-less have a great hunt.

I know of one non-resident who drew an M.L. antelope tag the FIRST time he applied! And it is in a pretty good unit.

Bottom line though is there is a lot of unhappy folks out there looking for tags. Will there be a change in the way tags are drawn? Who knows? I don't for sure.

I had a dream year last year getting the early M.L. elk tag in 6A and then drawing an oryx tag in NM.

This year, cow tag coming in 6A and hopefully a crack at one last Strip deer tag, then I'm headed to the desert with Travis!

Yeah, that's not a bad buck for a "Non-trophy" hunt!

Don Martin

 

[piper]

That is a nice buck, and down in the big cactus country. I know how the system works, and the set aside kind of screwed the nonresidents in my opinion, Oh well, maybe someday.

 

[DonMartin]

Piper, there are no "set aside" of tags in AZ for non-residents! Non-residents can get UP TO 10% of the tags in a hunt. Is that a limiting factor in drawing tags? Sure it is, but the bottom line is that if you want to hunt in AZ, there are plenty of opportunities...

Don Martin

 

[maddglasser]

Don you are right!! AZ has plenty of opps piper. People can sit around a complain that they can't draw AZ or they can go hunting! Period, simple as that. I wish I had a strip tag once! I don't and won't, I will however go hunting where I can. If I had max or needed my hunter ed point I would jump on it!! Guys just listen to Don.

1 point or OTC could get you that 200" buck in AZ. 5 points could get you that 380 bull. Just quit going with the waves!

 

[Clark]

I think the discussion is helpful to understand the current process and use this forum as a sounding board for possible alternatives. No harm, no foul when facts are discussed and people voice their opinion.

When we look at this from a revenue standpoint for the AZ Game and Fish, these "famous units' pull in apps from all over the country. If the info was plainly displayed about drawing odds next to unit selection based on real data, the Game and Fish would need to come up with new ways to raise revenue.

All in all, it's the hunter responsibility to understand the choices and pick accordingly. That's what this discussion is about.

Clark

 

[piper]

My only complaint is how they changed the game so much on nonresidents, and how it was done in the middle of the game. the set asides made it basicly impossible to get lucky for nonresidents on any of the very hard to draw hunts, it effected the resident drawings a little but much more so for nonresidents. It is the hunters responsibility to understand the draw, yes, but changes should be thoughtful of those that have invested time and money. This didn't happen yesterday, and I know, its not the end of the world.

 

[maddglasser]

Pipe there are PLENTY of great hunts out there. Quit grippin about what you can't draw and hunt the piss outta what you can!

 

[piper]

Thats easy for you to say, the high temp Tomorrow is supposed to be -8 and tomorrow night -30. I will try to quit sniveling though.

 

[maddglasser]

LAST EDITED ON Jan-31-11 AT 07:12PM (MST)[p]YUCK!! Man it's gonna be cold here too. 62! But remember us when its 120+ this summer!

 

[excaliber]

It changed the system to a front loaded ultra preference point system for the best hunts. That's just how it is for now.

I figure I'll only be able to hunt AZ one time at my age and I'm not wanting to waste all the years of applying and money on a lesser tag so I'm in it until I draw a primo tag.

I wouldn't be getting in now as a NR unless you would be happy with hunting some of the lesser known units. You are still going to need up to 10 points maybe more in the future for those hunts if you started now.






>My only complaint is how they
>changed the game so much
>on nonresidents, and how it
>was done in the middle
>of the game. the
>set asides made it basicly
>impossible to get lucky for
>nonresidents on any of the
>very hard to draw hunts,
>it effected the resident drawings
>a little but much more
>so for nonresidents. It
>is the hunters responsibility to
>understand the draw, yes, but
>changes should be thoughtful of
>those that have invested time
>and money. This
>didn't happen yesterday, and I
>know, its not the end
>of the world.

 

[krp]

15 to 19 BPs to be in the 20% pass for the early rifle rut hunts, 0% chance to draw for a NR until the 20% pass.

11 to 15 BPs for the better early archery hunts, most will not have tags for NRs after the 20% pass, but could have a few slip through any given year.

3 to 8 for lesser early archery and late rifle bull hunts, with tags available to NRs in the 80% draw in most.

There are 432 early rifle/ML tags this year, 86 will be in the 20% pass... 43 could go to NRs... those are the tags NRs that reach the 20% draw have available.

last year there were 342 applicants with 15 to 19 BPs

this year there are 410 with 15 to 19...

over all there is an increase of 191 applicants in the 11 thru 19 pools total, 1731 to 1922... then a dramatic decline from 10 down... A slight wave through the system from when the economy was good and many were applying at that time? probably.

Just some things to think about.

No one gets to 15 bps without being dedicated to an early firearm tag, or switches to early archery for whatever reason. Those are the people you are competing against if you are dedicated to an ER tag... 410 this year, not thousands.

you don't get to 11 BPs without being dedicated to a premium early archery, there are 785 tags in the top 6 units, that's 157 in the 20% pass and 78 available to NRs in that draw. there are 1512 applicants with 11 to 14 BPs.

It's much more wide open in the 10 BP and down draws, plus the numbers of them advancing to the higher tiers are decreasing, people not willing to wait when they can hunt for sure in decent areas.

Those in the higher tiers, 11 to 19 BP pool, 1922 apps (ER/EM/EA), are competing for just over a thousand tags. They are guaranteed 243 of them.

You will be drawn if you can wait, even a NR. There is a 191 applicant wave that must go through the system, nothing earth shattering, there are not thousands behind to replace.

Now seems a good time to get in with the decrease of apps, you really are only competing with your BP group and then with the ones dedicated to what you want to draw.

Good luck to all.

Kent

 

[Christian]

KRP, great explanation and insight.

Do you have that analogy for mule deer figured, too?

The Christian

 

[krp]

Being a Coues hunter I haven't done much with Mule deer, just skimmed a few hunts for family. I will say Premium Coues (dec hunts) are much easier to draw, with a wait of 3 to 7 years tops... than the few premium MD hunts on the strip/kaibab.

Doubt if I could add anything to Don's knowledge on MD here anyway.

Kent

 

[sremim]

I find it rather ammusing when nonresidents play
into the lesser unit BS. You only fool yourself and
waste lots of money.

All this talk of "lesser" units, what
a crock. These "premier" units that you all want to
hold out for do not have 400" bulls behind every tree.
There's not 350" bulls behind every tree.

Those of you who are set on only a handful of units
will probably only hunt AZ once. Those who look into
other areas can hunt every couple years and still shoot
big bulls. To tell another NR it's too late to get a good hunt
is rediculous. But whatever floats your boat!