Odds are posted!! Results are on their way!

They probably are non-res and the permit they put in for didn't draw any non-res tags according to the draw odds...just my guess, because the results are not posted yet.
 
>Actually I am a non-resident but
>am included in the resident
>draw pool. And
>a non-res drew my sheep
>tag...

bummer....maybe next year

ridgelineoutdoors.com
 
LAST EDITED ON May-24-13 AT 08:11AM (MST)[p]Right now I'm one of the 10 applicants for the nonresident mountain goat tag in my first choice unit.

Nonresident overall odds went down to about 2% this year from around 3% last year with only 4 nonresident mountain goat tags awarded instead of 5 and a few more nonresident applicants this year than last year. Total tags were 48 this year and I guess they round down to only 4 tags instead of the last several years where there was 53 total tags and 5 of those went to nonresidents.

Resident odds for mountain goat tags are about the best of any state in the lower 48.
 
LAST EDITED ON May-24-13 AT 09:00AM (MST)[p]Npaden-

I'm not sure that your analysis is quite correct. I believe that nonresidents COULD draw 0 goat (sheep, moose) tags in the current system.

It's a 10% CAP is all.
 
>LAST EDITED ON May-24-13
>AT 09:00?AM (MST)

>
>Npaden-
>
>I'm not sure that your analysis
>is quite correct. I
>believe that nonresidents COULD draw
>0 goat (sheep, moose) tags
>in the current system.
>
>It's a 10% CAP is all.
>


This is absolutely correct.
 
Yes, I understand that it is a "could" and a cap, but it would be pretty odd for it to work that way statistically.

For the nonresidents to not hit the cap, they would have to average being almost 3.5 times less lucky than the residents.

44 tags went to 629 resident applicants for 7% drawing odds.

4 tags went to 182 nonresident applicants for 2% drawing odds.

Another way to look at it is that the nonresidents represented 22% of the applicants and they are applying for 10% max of the tags. With the rounding this year it actually put the cap at 8%.

For an individual tag or two it would be realistic for it to play out where the draw might favor a resident over a nonresident or vice versa, but I would be willing to bet a considerable amount of money that the nonresidents have been hitting the cap every year for the last several years.
 
>True. I was thinking you
>could do the research on
>the cap and let us
>know...


For the last 3 years I have applied it has hit the cap each year.

When I calculate my odds as a nonresident, I am going to assume that the cap will be the limiting factor rather than the drawing odds of the particular unit I am applying for.
 
>>my odds got worse, but no
>>nonres drawn, leaves 1 in
>>11 for the goat tag?
>>
>we must be in for the
>same tag!
>
>

39 Mt Goat?
 
You can call the office before they close today, and they will look it up for you.
 
>You can call the office before
>they close today, and they
>will look it up for
>you.

This is true. I did not draw a sheep tag. Dang.
 
They were kind enough to tell me i drew my Moose tag! They said the results will be up for sure on monday if you miss calling in. Good luck to all!
 
You should try and see if the backdoor shows your moose tag. Just out of curiousity. Even though it is already paid for.
 
When i checked the back door It showed the controlled hunt application was purchased but it doesn't say anything about a moose tag purchase. I'm not totally sure what i should be looking for there but i hope that helps.
 
Buddy drew same sheep tag I had last year...looks like we are sheep hunting again!! Called to late to find out if I drew my goat tag...

ridgelineoutdoors.com
 

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