Yes, I understand that it is a "could" and a cap, but it would be pretty odd for it to work that way statistically.
For the nonresidents to not hit the cap, they would have to average being almost 3.5 times less lucky than the residents.
44 tags went to 629 resident applicants for 7% drawing odds.
4 tags went to 182 nonresident applicants for 2% drawing odds.
Another way to look at it is that the nonresidents represented 22% of the applicants and they are applying for 10% max of the tags. With the rounding this year it actually put the cap at 8%.
For an individual tag or two it would be realistic for it to play out where the draw might favor a resident over a nonresident or vice versa, but I would be willing to bet a considerable amount of money that the nonresidents have been hitting the cap every year for the last several years.