Odds question

[YZF_88]

I'm looking at the preference point drawing odds on the F&G web site. Per the snapshot below, am I correct in assuming I have a zero% chance of drawing this tag if I have less than max points...say only three?

If so, then my real odds are then the random draw odds correct?

 

[TOPGUN]

Yes to both if the numbers stay anywhere near that over the next few years. Being 3 PPs below the max of 6 this year would mean a wait of at least 7 or 8 years if all those with more PPs than you keep buying PPs and applying for thattag. Some might drop out, but could be replaced by others with more PPs that changed from other units to that one. If you are 3 PPs below max and want to hunt in the near future, it would probably be best to look at decent units where your PP total would have a good chance at drawing, although you could get lucky in the random draw you would be placed in for a second chance at those hard tags. That is one good thing in Wyoming in that those with PPs have two chances to draw a tag where those with none only have one chance in that one draw.

 

[YZF_88]

LAST EDITED ON Dec-30-11 AT 01:46PM (MST)[p]Thanks for the sanity check.

 

[WapitiBob]

Every app is included in the PP draw including 0 point apps. I just talked to the draw coordinator last week.

 

[delmag1942]

To elaborate on Topgun....the way I do it is just presume that all the applicants will stay the same. I divide the 150 into the point classes (evenly )and figure from there. That reasoning would indicate that some 3 point owners would draw for 2015. Just the way I do it. Good Luck!

 

[TOPGUN]

delmag---It looks like you are using an optimistic way to figure out the odds, while what I stated is close to the worst case scenario. I imagine it would probably be somewhere in between the two.

WapitiBob---Can you elaborate on what the coordinator told you because I think that would give people a sense that everyone always has 2 chances to draw a tag. Isn't it correct that the only time a 0 PP guy could draw is if the unit is underscribed by PP holders for the number of tags available in that draw. If that happened and you got down to the 0 PPs people it would truly be a random draw for them for those remaining tags and those that didn't get a tag would then have a second shot in the random draw. This would be similar to the PP guys that didn't draw if the unit was overscribed in that one and they would have a shot in the random draw for the % of tags that draw is required to have by law. I think the former scenario does happen, but not very often, while the latter always occurs because of the % requirements WY came up with for each category. Please correct me if I'm wrong because I sure don't want to be giving out incorrect information.

 

[WapitiBob]

LAST EDITED ON Dec-31-11 AT 11:18AM (MST)[p]
Wyoming is unique in their draw process. They give every app two "draw" numbers when the app is entered in the computer. The 1st number is for the pref point draw, the 2nd is for the random draw.
For the PP draw, they pull up the 1st hunt number, then sort every app by pref point total. Starting with the max point pool, they only load those max point "draw" app numbers from that pool into the computer. They then randomly select from only those numbers till the tags are filled or they go to the next lower point pool. If they get to the next lower point pool, they again load and randomly choose from only that pool. They continue on down the line, loading the "draw" numbers then randomly drawing from those numbers. If there are tags available when they get to the zero point pool, they continue as they did previously. The only difference is the point pool is at zero rather than one, two, etc.
Because they only load the "draw" numbers from the current point pool, then randomly choose from just that group, the draw is as close to a true random draw as you can get. Some other states use the "lowest then up" draw method.
Also, they have a name for the "draw" numbers as I called them but I forgot what she called them.

 

[TOPGUN]

I think you just said exactly what I did!!!

 

[rugarm77]

One thing I know is being 1 point under max has hurt my chances. I missed the first year they offered non res points. Some of the units like 32 and 111 are not going to happen anytime soon. Time to find a unit I can draw and get some hunting done.

 

[WapitiBob]

After reading your post the assumption was that zero point guys were not in the pp draw when in actuality, everyone is in "the pp draw" which does not mean they will get to, or pull your number. Zero point guys can and do draw hunts in the nr pp draw, provided there are tags remaining for that hunt code when the computer gets to zero point pool. And, there may be more zero point, first choice guys than tags so the hunt might not under subscribe either.

 

[TOPGUN]

WB---In actuality, what you're saying does not take place very often if you look through all the draws for the three animals. It's close to saying that a guy with 1 PP is in the PP draw for a unit where only a person with 6 PPs will draw a tag. Sure, technically the guy with 1 PP is in that draw, BUT!!! Anyway, we're on the same page because I knew the people with no PPs had a chance at the remainder of the PP tags if a unit goes underscribed. I'll bet F&G hates it when that does happen and they have to give those higher priced licenses to lower paying customers!

 

[WapitiBob]

LAST EDITED ON Dec-31-11 AT 08:00PM (MST)[p]Rug, the "non rounding" WY does for points can be a blessing and a curse, depending on your points and what you want accomplished. There can be a whole bunch of guys with points between 5.001 and 5.999. It can ensure you don't get drawn for 1st choice so you can get that 2nd choice tag and a point, or, it can put you ahead of the 5.000 guys giving you a better chance at getting in the top point pool and getting drawn.
I'm right where you are, 5.000 points.

 

[rugarm77]

WB, you and TG have done your homework!! You guys provide folks with some good info and help on here. Good luck this year and thanks again.

 

[delmag1942]

Topgun, in between is probably the most likely. I just use my method to try and figure where I might draw.

 

[nripepi]

If Wyoming would let you turn your tags back in, they would have to change this rule as it is sort of the reverse "Grandma" rule from Utah. You could use Grandma and her zero points to not allow you to draw your first choice and you could get your 2nd choice! This probably is not done by anyone because you would have to pay for Grandma's tag as it stands now.

 

[TOPGUN]

nripepi---I'm sure you're not the only one who has thought of that and I'll bet it's being done at least to some extent.