Point creep for late kaibab?

Born2hunt · Oct 29, 2023

I’ve never posted on here and just joined up. I’ve been on Coues white tail forever but first time posting here. I’m going into next year with 12 BP (resident) which gives me 100% draw odds for early Kaibab rifle. It looks like if I hold on for a few more years I can draw the late rut tag which I’d rather. Does anyone have any idea how to predict point creep? I could wait 5 or 6 years for a rut kaibab tag, but don’t think I’d want to wait much longer than that. Just not sure if I’m more like 10 years from max bonus or??
I appreciate any insight anyone has.

I’ve only hunted turkeys up there so I have no idea if deer can be found on the early hunt or if they’re tucked in before sun up like other AZ rifle hunts.

Thanks!

wweaver79 · Oct 29, 2023

Shake the magic 8 ball, it says maybe. Iam at 12 Res also, well 13 now that I did not draw this year. Stay strong, hope for a random tag and if you get a few more points and they increase tags again in a few years, your in. With better precipitation patterns ( nothing can control that ) and another good fire would be nice. They need keep the tags for does cut back way back- it should keep getting better. But that means people with points come off the fences.

Ed · Oct 29, 2023

I drew it in 21 as a resident with 17 points. I was there 3 weeks ago for turkey and the deer population doesn’t look good. It might be worth waiting 5-6 yeats for a tag.

Skykarp · Oct 29, 2023

Born2hunt said:
I’ve never posted on here and just joined up. I’ve been on Coues white tail forever but first time posting here. I’m going into next year with 12 BP (resident) which gives me 100% draw odds for early Kaibab rifle. It looks like if I hold on for a few more years I can draw the late rut tag which I’d rather. Does anyone have any idea how to predict point creep? I could wait 5 or 6 years for a rut kaibab tag, but don’t think I’d want to wait much longer than that. Just not sure if I’m more like 10 years from max bonus or??
I appreciate any insight anyone has.

I’ve only hunted turkeys up there so I have no idea if deer can be found on the early hunt or if they’re tucked in before sun up like other AZ rifle hunts.

Thanks!

If I were you I would pull the point reports and do some soul searching. If the dept keeps tag numbers suppressed for a few more years it will speed up the creep pretty drastically. The bad drought years age class will probably start rearing it’s ugly head soon as well.

Population in the state is going up which means more Res fighting for tags as well as NR coming in with points.

Hunt every 10 years or every 20 your choice .

Born2hunt · Oct 30, 2023

Thanks guys that’s helpful. I’m definitely in the soul searching mode now. I’ve built points while doing otc archery and taking kids on youth hunts but they’ll all be out of state for school next year so it’s time to put my points to use. I’ll keep digging through numbers to see what I can figure out.

208LOGAN · Dec 13, 2023

Honestly.... There are a lot of people in line ahead of you for that tag. I also think a lot of people are sick of waiting for a strip tag and so they have made the move over to the late kaibab. I am sitting at 14 points and figure it will be at least another 8 to 10 years with point creep. I don't have any data backing this up but it is what I suspect.

BradA · Dec 13, 2023

208LOGAN said:
Honestly.... There are a lot of people in line ahead of you for that tag. I also think a lot of people are sick of waiting for a strip tag and so they have made the move over to the late kaibab. I am sitting at 14 points and figure it will be at least another 8 to 10 years with point creep. I don't have any data backing this up but it is what I suspect.

Resident or NR 8-10 years ?

couesmagnet · Dec 13, 2023

I didn’t draw with 19 res points last year.
My dad didn’t draw with 19 res points either. We put in on diff apps.
I don’t expect to draw next year with 20 with point creep.
I believe it will take 21 plus next year. Someone with around 14 points I would expect to have to wait at min 12 years. It’s going to keep creeping. There’s so so many people with 15 to 19 points that need to be cleared out first and that will take a decade to accomplish.
Sucks big time.

208LOGAN · Dec 13, 2023

BradA said:
Resident or NR 8-10 years ?

Resident

208LOGAN · Dec 13, 2023

couesmagnet said:
I didn’t draw with 19 res points last year.
My dad didn’t draw with 19 res points either. We put in on diff apps.
I don’t expect to draw next year with 20 with point creep.
I believe it will take 21 plus next year. Someone with around 14 points I would expect to have to wait at min 12 years. It’s going to keep creeping. There’s so so many people with 15 to 19 points that need to be cleared out first and that will take a decade to accomplish.
Sucks big time.

Well crap that is disappointing... at 14 it might make sense to cash out on the early hunt.